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Early March threats - Mar 1st-8th Period


free_man

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SREFs are kinda misleading - maybe a quarter of them really bring the good stuff into the area to skew the mean.  A handful of them bring lighter stuff with onshore flow I believe.  Probably too warm on most solutions for most of the CP. Could be good for the elevated interior though.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PCNTOTNE_15z/srefloop.html

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SREFs are kinda misleading - maybe a quarter of them really bring the good stuff into the area to skew the mean.  A handful of them bring lighter stuff with onshore flow I believe.  Probably too warm on most solutions for most of the CP I believe. Could be good for the elevated interior though.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PCNTOTNE_15z/srefloop.html

 

Almost all of the ARW members are big hits and most of the NMM members are misses. 

 

The SREFs are awful.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html

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What year was it where it was cloudy for like the whole month of May? 2009? I think we only had 3 days of sun.

 

2006 was bad.  2009 I remember had a few big rain events.   The 10th and 11th especially was widespread heavy rain and a tornado in Sunderland that lifted up a tobacco barn and carried it a few hundred feet.  

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Well the JMA does have more computing power than the GFS. Maybe its onto something. And quick question. What would happen if that upper low east of Maine trended so far west if it actually phased into this upcoming storm?

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All of the spread on the SREFS is north, Euro Ens too. Not sure what to think but nothing set in stone yet.

 

Yeah the ARW members are quintuple bunners :weenie:

 

I agree that nothing is set in stone. Can't write it off completely but I do think odds of a big hit are very low.

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How bleeping lucky you guys are in Tolland to have That much snow still. I haven't even been able to sled in 12 days I lost so much snow.

And we're on the same latitude.

it's called trees and elevation.. Colder day time temps than valleys/low spots really helps esp this time of year.. Now if we had a cutter it would go quick..but this upcoming week won't do much..and we may add some

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it's called trees and elevation.. Colder day time temps than valleys/low spots really helps esp this time of year.. Now if we had a cutter it would go quick..but this upcoming week won't do much..and we may add some

 

 

It's more of a shade thing than elevation here because I am on a plateau here at about 800' and shaded areas are loaded with snow while open fields are grass. Valley Falls/Bolton Lake areas have 100% snowcover that is 6-12" deep especially in the forested areas. South of Route 44 snowcover is sparse.

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It's more of a shade thing than elevation here because I am on a plateau here at about 800' and shaded areas are loaded with snow while open fields are grass. Valley Falls/Bolton Lake areas have 100% snowcover that is 6-12" deep especially in the forested areas.

Yes it def helps to not get torching sunlight no matter what the elevation..but even the shaded areas in the valley are mostly melted out..so it's a combo of both.

 

Sounds like you've been hiking over at Valley Falls. I grew up very near there.

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I don't think the NAM is buying.

 

Precip actually ends up a little further north into PA, and there's probably the hint of more bend on the edge south of New England at 84. 

 

I actually think it's a good trend for the NAM, but my interest isn't terrific yet as I still worry about temps/rain.

 

 

Funny how quiet it got in here when the Euro ENS came out.  Nobody wants to commit....lol.

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Precip actually ends up a little further north into PA, and there's probably the hint of more bend on the edge south of New England at 84.

I actually think it's a good trend for the NAM, but my interest isn't terrific yet as I still worry about temps/rain.

Funny how quiet it got in here when the Euro ENS came out. Nobody wants to commit....lol.

twitters abuzz
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