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Early March threats - Mar 1st-8th Period


free_man

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Or the past week. A few peeks today when I was outside felt good. But alas, we have to wade through crap to get a good stretch of wx now.

I'm at the point where 3-6 doesn't cut it as it lasts otg little more than a day. 8+ or warmth is my emerging mindset.

I'm pretty much there, haha. Haven't seen the sun in what feels like 1-2 weeks. Snow is nice in the air but this hasn't been like Currier and Ives snow. It's like 48 hours of snow drizzle that accumulates an inch every 12-18 hours. You can tell this current airmass is from the maritimes on a NE flow....low clouds, damp and chilly.

Bring on 40F and sun at this point if we aren't getting a big one.

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I will take NCEPs word for now.

NO MODEL STILL STANDS AS

SUPERIOR TO ANY OTHER CONSIDERING THE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME

WITH THE 12Z UKMET POSSIBLY OUT OF CONTENTION.

IN GENERAL...THE NCEP MODELS ARE FASTER/FARTHER NORTH AND EAST

THAN THE NON-NCEP MODELS WITH THOSE DIFFERENCES CAPABLE OF

DETERMINING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN IMPACT AS TO WHERE THE

HEAVIEST FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.

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Look at the Ens -sds relaxing the block and increasing the inflow. Beginning to believe that CC is in for a big blow. Even the Euro has curled north with high winds.

Lost in all the model hugging is that the euro shifted north with precip after 100 hours and shifted the northern shortwave a little southwest. By a little I mean 500 miles. Just a smidge. It now does attempt to interact with the offshore system just not quite in time. Give it another run.

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Lost in all the model hugging is that the euro shifted north with precip after 100 hours and shifted the northern shortwave a little southwest. By a little I mean 500 miles. Just a smidge. It now does attempt to interact with the offshore system just not quite in time. Give it another run.

With all the weenie Euro looks the same posts...it actually now scrapes the cape with snow..interesting

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With all the weenie Euro looks the same posts...it actually now scrapes the cape with snow..interesting

 

 

It def came north, but still light years away from hitting us hard. It has been giving us weenie precip from onshore flow for several runs.

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Lost in all the model hugging is that the euro shifted north with precip after 100 hours and shifted the northern shortwave a little southwest. By a little I mean 500 miles. Just a smidge. It now does attempt to interact with the offshore system just not quite in time. Give it another run.

 

Your feeling something about this storm aren't you?  I've noticed a certain uneasyness about your posts, sort of like Peter Parker's Spider sense tingling.

 

I'll ride your intuition and Kevin's optimism... for now.

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It def came north, but still light years away from hitting us hard. It has been giving us weenie precip from onshore flow for several runs.

But this run looks like precip from the actual coastal gets to the Cape.

 

I mean with this cold east flow..it looks like we'll have snow in the air just about everyday thru at least Thursday nite.like we do today..non stop flurries all day

 

What we'd like is some steady stuff or a nice slug of qpf to come in at night..so Tip.s sun warming the car sun angle doesn't come into play

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I don't think we'll see sun for 6-8 days.  The snowcover survives another week for us..and hopefully we add some more this week..but hoping the GEFS are right is like hoping Scooter has less than 500 posts per day

If we don't get meaningful snow, yours will be patchy at best a week from today.

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But this run looks like precip from the actual coastal gets to the Cape.

 

I mean with this cold east flow..it looks like we'll have snow in the air just about everyday thru at least Thursday nite.like we do today..non stop flurries all day

 

What we'd like is some steady stuff or a nice slug of qpf to come in at night..so Tip.s sun warming the car sun angle doesn't come into play

 

 

Maybe it tickles ACK with .009" QPF, but I think most of what the Euro is showing is the onshore low clouds/snizzle.

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With clouds /no sun and temps in the 30's all week and low dews? I'd take the over on that..

 

Tough to melt this remaining 6-7 inches of ice

 

IMG_0673_zps45fc45b7.jpg

 

 

A north facing area just down the road in Tolland has about twice that much snow. Next weekend is forecasted to be in the middle - upper 40's with full sunshine, snowcover will be going bye, bye.

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With clouds /no sun and temps in the 30's all week and low dews? I'd take the over on that..

Tough to melt this remaining 6-7 inches of ice

IMG_0673_zps45fc45b7.jpg

That looks like 3-5 of soft granulated corny snow/ice. Tough to melt in mid winter but a piece of cake in March. Rearrange the garage so you can find the lawn stuff.

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Your feeling something about this storm aren't you? I've noticed a certain uneasyness about your posts, sort of like Peter Parker's Spider sense tingling.

I'll ride your intuition and Kevin's optimism... for now.

Well not really. Just think the euro is going to be dreadfully wrong with the low as it comes off the coast. Having the UKMET in your camp is like having the Dgex supporting a hit.

The euro is not far off this run. It's likely still too slow coming off the coast which is why it takes longer for the north bend. The upper low gets out a bit before there's the beginning of any interaction.

We will see tonight. But the euro will likely end up being too far south with the "wrapping" up low. Not much different than many other threats with the euro this winter at this range

Edit: the ncep stuff will inevitably have a run or three too far NW like every other threat. Sense is it is too early for these op runs to be the NW edge, but we will see soon. Ever jelly as the models converge will be important to recognize that if it remains a scraper type deal no doubt the ncep stuff will be too far NW. If this becomes more of a hit who knows

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