Early March threats - Mar 1st-8th Period

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Nice, 12z GEFS have 1" of qpf to BOS.

Very difficult to take them seriously with utter lack of OP support from multiple guidance. The GGEM does scrape us with some decent ML moisture and spits out a couple to 3 tenths in spots. That probably wouldn't be much outside of the hills.

I'm not paying much attention but one thing I've notice is inside of 60-72 hours the other models have been slow to shift NE to effect Chicago, Ohio etc. gfs was on that earlier and IMO may be onto the north jump later in the run first too. But probably onto but overdone as usual? We shall see. The fact that the ggem and others have bumped NE earlier in their runs may be an important clue, we will see

[SR Airglow]

So the operational GFS has flurries here, and the GEFS .5"+, while not all snow, a nice snowfall none the less. The GEFS often differ from the operational, but a split like this seems odd, it seems like it's the other way around usually. not buying the GEFS, they have no support, but intresting none the less...

-skisheep

[dendrite]

[CT Rain]

Red flag

[CT Rain]

lol great minds think alike, Brian. 

[weatherMA]

Ryan's going all out on twitter lol.

[Baroclinic Zone]

all within a minute of each other

[powderfreak]

I realize this isn't the thread for more Ct Valley climo talk, but since it's been ongoing... lol

 

One thing telling to me is I get the sense that most of SNE is above climo right now.  Honestly I don't feel that this area has underperformed more than usual, especially considering the bomb was a solid 2' in the valley in places.  One of the biggest ever, with no noticeable shadow...  But we're still right at 40, which would be solidly below climo if it really is upper 40s low 50s.   

 

Someone asked a mechanism why Springfield would be less than Bradley... I do think there is something to the idea of discretized storm evolution... which is to say, it's not a continuous range of likely storm solutions resulting in a very latitudinal gradient of snowfall, putting orography aside.  With primary lows passing underneath us quite often, at least in the last 10 years, we've seen qpf shields staying farther south into CT.  And the isallobaric component in those situations causes dry air to snake down the valley from the north delaying accumulations while saturating.  But with primaries to the west, as the valley narrows going north, warm air advection accelerates.  It's been very rare to be snowing in Springfield while raining in BDL.  Then you throw in the orography and there you have it.  For the most part I think Northampton is the worst of all for the same reasons.... once you get clear of Noho into Greenfield it starts to go up again quickly.  

 

Fascinating post.  I love this meso-scale climate talk. 

 

So typically, at comparable elevations, snowfall in the east increases with latitude... which is why a place like BTV at 300ft averages 20 inches more than ALB at a similar elevation.  I've always thought of the Hudson Valley and Champlain Valley networks as having annual snowfall that increases fairly evenly with latitude.  I always thought the CT River Valley would be the same equal gradient.  But is what I'm reading is that there is a snowfall minimum north of BDL in the valley before it starts increasing again as it heads up between VT/NH?  Granted the portion of the valley near the VT/NH border is a snowfall minimum relative to the hills around it, but I'd imagine the valley bottom averages more snow there than the valley bottom just south of there, no?

[SR Airglow]

Wow... Major red flags, when it's one or two weenie members messing with the mean, that's one thing, but something like this... Not riding it, but not tossing it either.....

[N. OF PIKE]

Best hope of getting this far enough north for a few inches is to hope the energy rotting east of New England holds back and gets phased into the storm....ala March 2001...but further south. Some of the SREF and GEFS members do this and produce good snow up into NE. This is an outside shot at this point though since Euro wasn't really interested in it and most OP runs aren't excited about the idea....we are getting to that point in lead time where its going to be tough to get large shifts....not impossible though.

 

 

I still think interior areas could potentiall pick up an couple inches if the onshore flow is good enough with enough moisture rising up to the mid-levels.

seems like 12z gefs has this idea?

[CT Rain]

Ryan's going all out on twitter lol.

 

lol triple bunner. It's interesting and worth watching. Still 84 hours out so we're still at the time frame where things can change. Obviously with the Euro and Euro ensembles far south there's not much hope but with the ensembles looking like that it's interesting. 

[N. OF PIKE]

lol triple bunner. It's interesting and worth watching. Still 84 hours out so we're still at the time frame where things can change. Obviously with the Euro and Euro ensembles far south there's not much hope but with the ensembles looking like that it's interesting. 

that last guys comment on your twitter page.....he prob doesn't realize the 12z gefs was sort of the FIRST large sign of a RED FLAG and since they just came out.....you and everyone here are pretty much on the " cutting edge" of this storm's potential trend......so he hasn't heard it from others yet "your on an island" lol...big shock....it just occur'd.

[CT Rain]

that last guys comment on your twitter page.....he prob doesn't realize the 12z gefs was sort of the FIRST large sign of a RED FLAG and since they just came out.....you and everyone here are pretty much on the " cutting edge" of this storm's potential trend......so he hasn't heard it from others yet "your on an island" lol...big shock....it just occur'd.

 

haters 'gon hate. If he thinks I'm an over hyper than he probably has never watched one of my forecasts or read my blog. 

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Look at the trends for areas inside of being hit in the next 36-72 hours and the gefs won't seem that unreasonable ( with normal ncep nwp biases considered)

[cja1987]

12z to 18z should be about those runs that finally start revealing the hand in terms of which way this is going to go (AIT).  

 

Lots of people getting ready to hit the uncancel button?  More worried about rain than a miss.

 

Yup, same here but you have been saying it for days.

 

I think we get 0.5"+ up to the MA Pike out of this, possibly even better. I might be walking straight off a cliff but I just don't see this thing evolving as modeled by current OP guidance. Its possible, there are large scale arguments as to why it would happen that way but it just does not pass the smell test. More art than science here, mixed with a bit of    but I'm all in and I'm sticking with it, haha.

[CTWeatherFreak]

lol triple bunner. It's interesting and worth watching. Still 84 hours out so we're still at the time frame where things can change. Obviously with the Euro and Euro ensembles far south there's not much hope but with the ensembles looking like that it's interesting. 

 

I cant quite tell from the resolution, but it looks like more than half the ens members position the low near the benchmark, and toss rather copious precip back this way.  Certainly an unexpected turn of events.  

[N. OF PIKE]

90/10

85/15 post gefs ?

[CT Rain]

I cant quite tell from the resolution, but it looks like more than half the ens members position the low near the benchmark, and toss rather copious precip back this way.  Certainly an unexpected turn of events.  

 

It makes me interested but we're about 15 minutes from the Euro showing this thing whiffing DC or something lol. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

85/15 post gefs ?

yes. they are alone right now but they do spark interest.

[CTWeatherFreak]

It makes me interested but we're about 15 minutes from the Euro showing this thing whiffing DC or something lol. 

 

Im sure we'll see Dr No being Dr No as you say.  But its weird how almost every gfs run has the ensembles being north of the op.  

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Well, we're soon to see if the euro offers further hope or if Dr. No strike again.

[N. OF PIKE]

btw are the amp'd gefs members mostly snow for the CP of sne... or 128 belt.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Yup, same here but you have been saying it for days.

I think we get 0.5"+ up to the MA Pike out of this, possibly even better. I might be walking straight off a cliff but I just don't see this thing evolving as modeled by current OP guidance. Its possible, there are large scale arguments as to why it would happen that way but it just does not pass the smell test. More art than science here, mixed with a bit of but I'm all in and I'm sticking with it, haha.

Thanks and yep. I figured today would be the day we would see the move to solid solutions just based on earlier systems. The euro is not what it once was but everyone relies on it while ignoring the more apparent and verifiable trends in the 2-3 day range to our west.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Yup, same here but you have been saying it for days.

I think we get 0.5"+ up to the MA Pike out of this, possibly even better. I might be walking straight off a cliff but I just don't see this thing evolving as modeled by current OP guidance. Its possible, there are large scale arguments as to why it would happen that way but it just does not pass the smell test. More art than science here, mixed with a bit of but I'm all in and I'm sticking with it, haha.

Thanks and yep. I figured today would be the day we would see the move to solid solutions just based on earlier systems. The euro is not what it once was but everyone relies on it while ignoring the more apparent and verifiable trends in the 2-3 day range to our west.

I think our team is leading the way on the move north but we will need to be careful because it ( ncep) will probably overdo the shift. Meanwhile the euro will plod this way and Will and I will have a ten page debate over which one was more right, and Tip will write about cosmic d's

[CoastalWx]

I dunno...tough for me to believe the ensembles.

[ORH_wxman]

The Euro is def gonna be north of 00z looking at H5 through 60 hours...however this really isn't a shock considering how far south 00z was. It kind of only had one place to go given the rest of the 12z guidance.

 

I doubt the Euro will come far enough north to hit us though. It will prob look a lot better for places like BWI/DCA than last night did.

[CT Rain]

The Euro is def gonna be north of 00z looking at H5 through 60 hours...however this really isn't a shock considering how far south 00z was. It kind of only had one place to go given the rest of the 12z guidance.

 

I doubt the Euro will come far enough north to hit us though. It will prob look a lot better for places like BWI/DCA than last night did.

 

Yeah looks that way. 

[ORH_wxman]

Its still not even close for us on the Euro.

[CT Rain]

Its still not even close for us on the Euro.

 

Yeah way south. Actually not too far from 00z run. 

 

Have to ignore the GFS ensembles. 

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Haaarrrshhhh.