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Early March threats - Mar 1st-8th Period

free_man

By free_man,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

A few of the surrounding coop long term averages:

 

Belchertown 54.7"

Holyoke 44.7"

Ware 45.5"

 

So that ballpark sounds about right.

 

 

Yeah I personally think they are high 40s to near 50"...some of those coop averages are probably low too if they aren't extremely loyal/disciplined observers.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

GFS is such a tease. It lost the partial northern stream interaction that 6z had. It just sits above the GL

 

 

Best hope of getting this far enough north for a few inches is to hope the energy rotting east of New England holds back and gets phased into the storm....ala March 2001...but further south. Some of the SREF and GEFS members do this and produce good snow up into NE. This is an outside shot at this point though since Euro wasn't really interested in it and most OP runs aren't excited about the idea....we are getting to that point in lead time where its going to be tough to get large shifts....not impossible though.

 

 

I still think interior areas could potentiall pick up an couple inches if the onshore flow is good enough with enough moisture rising up to the mid-levels.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

Best hope of getting this far enough north for a few inches is to hope the energy rotting east of New England holds back and gets phased into the storm....ala March 2001...but further south. Some of the SREF and GEFS members do this and produce good snow up into NE. This is an outside shot at this point though since Euro wasn't really interested in it and most OP runs aren't excited about the idea....we are getting to that point in lead time where its going to be tough to get large shifts....not impossible though.

 

 

I still think interior areas could potentiall pick up an couple inches if the onshore flow is good enough with enough moisture rising up to the mid-levels.

that's interesting , haven't heard this mentioned .

 

is the energy up near great lakes a lost cause at this point

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

that's interesting , haven't heard this mentioned .

 

is the energy up near great lakes a lost cause at this point

 

 

Yeah I wouldn't count on the GL energy at this point..by the time it could phase in anyway, it would probably be of little use and almost act as a kicker. Phasing some of the ULL energy from NE helps get the storm more neutrally tilted at a higher latitude eventually...build heights ahead of it. The whole interaction is really unusual...so I wouldn't be holding my breath up here, but worth keeping an eye on for another run or two.

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mattb65

mattb65

Posted
Posted

I really hope this works out for DC, it's been a tough couple years down there similar to what we had going before we got the blizzard.

 

It was interesting to see about half of the 6z GEFS get some good stuff into SNE, judging by the op run, it seems 12z will probably back off somewhat but it's hard to predict something like that.

 

12z op GFS seems to back in some of the good 700 RH into the area, maybe we'd get a fringe band of non-accumulating light stuff.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I'm noticing subtle variation in consistency between the 00z Oper. GFS and this 12z run, regarding the orientation of the -NAO related blocking feature over Ontario.  This run has bumped the entire depth and region of the height field a small amount N of the 00z, and this is offering slightly less southerly positioning of the deep layer storm track for this system's time spent moving through and off the MA.  

 

Not sure of that significance of that - perhaps none, perhaps some.  The 12z NOGAPs is arriving somewhat N with these features compared to its 00z run, as well.   

 

Anyway, this whole scenario could be changed if the northern stream got more involved.  It would mean a real deep battle between the blocking and a west Atlantic climate bomb because you'd end up with two titanic forces going head to head.  Here ... as is you have a deep impulse (sure) but it still pales by comparison to a hemispheric feature, such as a whole -NAO domain instructing a southerly storm track.

 

Which brings to note ... I have discussed this ad nauseam in the past and will again, this reminds me of the debate about why -NAO is not good in the automatic sense of things, for SNE.  There is a kind of pre-programmed attitude, which is a misconception really, where people see a -NAO and get all excited.   The NAO is good for cold source, but the domain cannot really be too deeply negative or systems get pushed too far S, which is physically instructed by the circulation system buckling around -NAO ... particularly when it is west-based.   This system being so deep, but so S hearkens to that somewhat.    

 

The solution is, the domain needs to really be quantized statistically to show what is best ... It really seem just per my own experience over the decades, the NAO is better for SNE when it is entering a -1 to -2 anomaly state, differentiating from positive into negative phase state.  If tanks too quickly and goes less that -2SD, you end up with 2010 MA jobs that b-bang SNE out of a good showing.  You really want a more modestly negative ... west or medium based NAOs.  Not sure if this current domain status meets with all this, but again, this deep layer vortex track being as it is (which looks bizarre) might just be symptomatic of too much of a good thing with the NAO.    But gee - having a 4 contoured hornet sting just merrily drifting due east of Cape Hatteras is unusual. 

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted

I realize this isn't the thread for more Ct Valley climo talk, but since it's been ongoing... lol

 

One thing telling to me is I get the sense that most of SNE is above climo right now.  Honestly I don't feel that this area has underperformed more than usual, especially considering the bomb was a solid 2' in the valley in places.  One of the biggest ever, with no noticeable shadow...  But we're still right at 40, which would be solidly below climo if it really is upper 40s low 50s.   

 

Someone asked a mechanism why Springfield would be less than Bradley... I do think there is something to the idea of discretized storm evolution... which is to say, it's not a continuous range of likely storm solutions resulting in a very latitudinal gradient of snowfall, putting orography aside.  With primary lows passing underneath us quite often, at least in the last 10 years, we've seen qpf shields staying farther south into CT.  And the isallobaric component in those situations causes dry air to snake down the valley from the north delaying accumulations while saturating.  But with primaries to the west, as the valley narrows going north, warm air advection accelerates.  It's been very rare to be snowing in Springfield while raining in BDL.  Then you throw in the orography and there you have it.  For the most part I think Northampton is the worst of all for the same reasons.... once you get clear of Noho into Greenfield it starts to go up again quickly.  

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

I realize this isn't the thread for more Ct Valley climo talk, but since it's been ongoing... lol

 

One thing telling to me is I get the sense that most of SNE is above climo right now.  Honestly I don't feel that this area has underperformed more than usual, especially considering the bomb was a solid 2' in the valley in places.  One of the biggest ever, with no noticeable shadow...  But we're still right at 40, which would be solidly below climo if it really is upper 40s low 50s.   

 

Someone asked a mechanism why Springfield would be less than Bradley... I do think there is something to the idea of discretized storm evolution... which is to say, it's not a continuous range of likely storm solutions resulting in a very latitudinal gradient of snowfall, putting orography aside.  With primary lows passing underneath us quite often, at least in the last 10 years, we've seen qpf shields staying farther south into CT.  And the isallobaric component in those situations causes dry air to snake down the valley from the north delaying accumulations while saturating.  But with primaries to the west, as the valley narrows going north, warm air advection accelerates.  It's been very rare to be snowing in Springfield while raining in BDL.  Then you throw in the orography and there you have it.  For the most part I think Northampton is the worst of all for the same reasons.... once you get clear of Noho into Greenfield it starts to go up again quickly.  

 

Good post and agreed. 

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

0.5" line to I-84 lol.

EDIT: That was 06z, now all of CT is in the 0.5" contour.

 

I'll be more interested to see the individual members than the mean.

 

Also... Euro ensembles are still very flat. Until they jump on board hard to look at this as more than a curiosity. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Nice, 12z GEFS have 1" of qpf to BOS.

 

 

Very difficult to take them seriously with utter lack of OP support from multiple guidance. The GGEM does scrape us with some decent ML moisture and spits out a couple to 3 tenths in spots. That probably wouldn't be much outside of the hills.

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