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Early March threats - Mar 1st-8th Period


free_man

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Yeah I'll always welcome a storm, but I guess I won't lose sleep if it doesn't occur. That's just me

though.

 

You're not going to spend days tracking flurries and argue with LL over whether your daily departure was +5 or +3???? How boring!!!

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When we first moved out here I read in the Republican that Springfield averaged over 50" and was quite surprised. 

 

Greenfield is about 58" average according to the town DPW but it's a big town area wise so amounts can vary from the S side of town to the N.

 

I don't think Springfield averages over 50". I'd put them around 44-45" per year. 58" per year seems about right for Greenfield.

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About twelve years ago I saw Springfield yearly snowfall totals posted from about 1947-48 to 1999-00 and the average was 49". I don't know where the measurements were coming from though. I should have copied the numbers, oh well.

 

Yeah I could see it being about the same as BDL. 

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06z gfs does give a little snow to higher spots and clip the cape with heavier precip, but it's too early to tell if it's for real. It looks too bullish.

 

That 06z run would suggest some mid level banding tickling the south coastal areas for sure. 00z Euro would have it rotting just south of the islands.

 

The GFS was also more bullish on the weak isentropic onshore flow ahead of the storm. More upglide, and more saturated than the Euro. I still suspect we see some weenie precip in there, but the only reason we're not smoking cirrus up here will be the onshore flow low clouds.

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Springfield probably is about 50"... Bradley's long term average is about 50". 

i think the 44 to 45 inch avg is more on the ball...i have been here 9 winters so far and there is no doubt this area gets quite a bit less than where i grew up in Bristol Ct and i took detailed records there for almost 20 years and the 50 inch avg i used worked out almost perfect.

 

the article i read said 50 to 55 inches per yr for spfd but i too thought it was too high. i have often felt 40 is even closer..this area is really like the coastal plain except that we will never get the obscene totals that the cp is capable of getting as we have recently seen from meriden ct to norwich ct etc in the ideal colder coastal monsters of the past few decades and frankly the history going back to the turn of the century proves that with only one storm 1888 really burying the lower valley on par with the rest of the affected area and there was still a maximum in southern ct lol in that storm

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i think the 44 to 45 inch avg is more on the ball...i have been here 9 winters so far and there is no doubt this area gets quite a bit less than where i grew up in Bristol Ct and i took detailed records there for almost 20 years and the 50 inch avg i used worked out almost perfect.

 

the article i read said 50 to 55 inches per yr for spfd but i too thought it was too high. i have often felt 40 is even closer..this area is really like the coastal plain except that we will never get the obscene totals that the cp is capable of getting as we have recently seen from meriden ct to norwich ct etc in the ideal colder coastal monsters of the past few decades and frankly the history going back to the turn of the century proves that with only one storm 1888 really burying the lower valley on par with the rest of the affected area and there was still a maximum in southern ct lol in that storm

 

Actually the maximum in the 1888 storm was around Albany, NY...I think they got 58". Incomprehensible what that storm must have been like. Central Park clearly underreported as that was probably NYC's biggest snowstorm ever, not 2/06. 

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Yeah I'll always welcome a storm, but I guess I won't lose sleep if it doesn't occur. That's just me

though.

 

 

Yeah, sometimes you win 'em sometimes you don't.  No reason getting worked up over missing snows.  There's always another chance to put flakes in the air.

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A few of the surrounding coop long term averages:

 

Belchertown 54.7"

Holyoke 44.7"

Ware 45.5"

 

So that ballpark sounds about right.

see that is great information right there...i would say the honest long term avg for spfd has to be a few inches less than holyoke and ware so if i was a betting man i would say low to mid 40's at best and that would make sense since bdl often does sig better than us, even overmeasuring aside although this winter bdl if anything seems a tad low.

 

a good friend of mine in Manchester Ct has crushed me in both of the last two big events getting 24 vs my 18 or so jan 12 11 and at least 30 vs my 23-24 in the last event and perhaps that needs to come down to 22-23 in all honesty

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Actually the maximum in the 1888 storm was around Albany, NY...I think they got 58". Incomprehensible what that storm must have been like. Central Park clearly underreported as that was probably NYC's biggest snowstorm ever, not 2/06. 

yes i know but there was another smaller maximum down in ct from middletown to new haven...but yes albany area did the best overall

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It would be interesting if BDL actually averaged more than Springfield. Same elevation, farther south, but less shadowing.

 

Basically you're never going to know for sure as there is too much variance in measuring. Many different observers over the years each with likely their own biases/laziness/don't give a crap attitudes going into it. I could see BDL averaging more but it would be nominal, they are both the same to me.

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Basically you're never going to know for sure as there is too much variance in measuring. Many different observers over the years each with likely their own biases/laziness/don't give a crap attitudes going into it. I could see BDL averaging more but it would be nominal, they are both the same to me.

Yeah we will never know for sure. It would be funny if BDL was 49 and Springfield was 47 or something.

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That 06z run would suggest some mid level banding tickling the south coastal areas for sure. 00z Euro would have it rotting just south of the islands.

The GFS was also more bullish on the weak isentropic onshore flow ahead of the storm. More upglide, and more saturated than the Euro. I still suspect we see some weenie precip in there, but the only reason we're not smoking cirrus up here will be the onshore flow low clouds.

Yeah bullish with everything. I hope it's right and 12z doesn't back off, but Indont have a fuzzy feeling.

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Yeah, sometimes you win 'em sometimes you don't. No reason getting worked up over missing snows. There's always another chance to put flakes in the air.

comforting words from the man who measures at a spot that snows at least every other day and ave's 300 at that spot. Lmao
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Actually the maximum in the 1888 storm was around Albany, NY...I think they got 58". Incomprehensible what that storm must have been like. Central Park clearly underreported as that was probably NYC's biggest snowstorm ever, not 2/06. 

 

 

Maximum snowfall from the March 11-14 1888 storm was 55" at Troy, NY. Albany recorded 47"

 

Connecticut's maximum snowfall was in Middletown at 50" and 5.78" of estimated total precipitation.

 

My town reported 42" and Tolland 36" :P

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