MJO812 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Fwiw, Navgem has precip up to Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 A 96 hour forecast from an 18z run is definitely better than a 102 hour forecast from a 12z run. The way data is assimilated into the models now there's virtually no difference between 12z/00z and 06z/18z runs anymore. It's not as bad as it used to be, I agree, but the 06z/18z GFS runs still perform below the 12/00z runs when it comes to verification. This is not a bash on the 6/18z runs, but I still take them with a little less weight than the 12/00z runs. I really am leaning on the Ensm right now and the Euro/GFS are pretty close imo on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 A 96 hour forecast from an 18z run is definitely better than a 102 hour forecast from a 12z run. The way data is assimilated into the models now there's virtually no difference between 12z/00z and 06z/18z runs anymore. Doesn't this get discussed literally every time someone/we analyze either a 6z or 18z run of any model? lol. Someone needs to pin something that says all model runs are created equally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Heck, an inch of rain cripples this place!your point is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Also, QPF is the lowest scoring when it comes to output from a model, so in reality, I am looking at the 5h fields and working my way from there to 7h/85h. One could argue with a well timed wobble the UL ends up over SNJ and not where it's placed now on the models. Jmho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 your point is? Uh, that pretty much anything "shuts" this area down. People can't drive in an inch of rain, let alone an inch of snow around here. Not sure my post needed explanation, given the context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Sssh,,don't tell some of the folks that have spiked this as sunny and 50 for Wed/thurs The NWS has 50F and sunny here for friday. The snowcover will join hands as it transforms into water and flows to the Connecticut River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Uh, that pretty much anything "shuts" this area down. People can't drive an inch of rain, let alone an inch of snow around here. Not sure my post needed explanation, given the context. meh, all big city traffic blows but Boston was fully functional within 72 hours after 25'' fell. Cant say the same for DC back in '10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Doesn't this get discussed literally every time someone/we analyze either a 6z or 18z run of any model? lol. Someone needs to pin something that says all model runs are created equally. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The NWS has 50F and sunny here for friday. The snowcover will join hands as it transforms into water and flows to the Connecticut River. lol, your posts crack me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 One could argue with a well timed wobble the UL ends up over SNJ and not where it's placed now on the models. Jmho Sure, why do you think my odds are 80/20 as opposed to 100/0? I'm leaning heavily on a miss right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/ cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png So would that imply that the 12z would still be more accurate than the 18z run 6 hours later for the same event? And same with 00z and 6z? Or is that verifying for a fixed amount of time out in the future...ie 120 hours out from 12z and 120 hours out from 18z... vs 120hrs from 12z compared with 114hrs at 18z? Not sure if what I'm saying makes sense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 So would that imply that the 12z would still be more accurate than the 18z run 6 hours later for the same event? And same with 00z and 6z? Or is that verifying for a fixed amount of time out in the future...ie 120 hours out from 12z and 120 hours out from 18z... vs 120hrs from 12z compared with 114hrs at 18z? Not sure if what I'm saying makes sense... i guess the scores bob posted sorta back up what you both said...if that's possible..... the grades are so close that i don't really know if there is statistically a significant difference......and one can infer (pretty safely) that since they are pretty damn near close to the same....as 96 hr 18z would be at least as accurate as the 12z 102 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/ cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png But you are missing Ryan's more significant point, the 96 hour 18z forecast is more accurate than a 102 hour 12z forecast, even with those verification scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Can we find a source for this graphic from DT? Although the differences are slight, implies a larger day 5 height error from 6/18z than 0/12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looks warm all week. Wasn't there some cold air lurking for mid-week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looks warm all week. Wasn't there some cold air lurking for mid-week? I'm looking forward to 40's and 50's upcoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm looking forward to 40's and 50's upcoming when is this forecast (50's) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Dynamics will help under the upper level low for RIC/CHO/ORF. I think they have a chance for heavy accumulation especially if the low closes off a little later.Dynamics can help it snow by cooling aloft and somewhat coolinh the surface, but do not help the fact that the BL is marginal and that peak rates occur during the day in central VA on 3/7. I think NE VA has a chance for bigger accumulation, not downtown RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Getting some light snow here, 31F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm looking forward to 40's and 50's upcoming Ill take some sun but would be happy with at least another two weeks of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 looks like best lift is getting pushed SW from lewiston to portland to now portsmouth and WNW......keep drivin south ....prob not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 00z GFS DC crusher. WOW! That thing just stalls off the Del Marva. Crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Dynamics can help it snow by cooling aloft and somewhat coolinh the surface, but do not help the fact that the BL is marginal and that peak rates occur during the day in central VA on 3/7. I think NE VA has a chance for bigger accumulation, not downtown RIC Virginia has had plenty of big snowfalls in March. In fact RIC's latest accumulating snowfall was in mid-April if I remember correctly (1919? 1941?). I think the storm is gradually shifting north so that puts the threat more towards DC, but I wouldn't worry about it being March down there if the dynamics and track are well modeled. They'll do fine if they get that much precip with sub 0C 850s...it's not as if it hasn't snowed down there before in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Virginia has had plenty of big snowfalls in March. In fact RIC's latest accumulating snowfall was in mid-April if I remember correctly (1919? 1941?). I think the storm is gradually shifting north so that puts the threat more towards DC, but I wouldn't worry about it being March down there if the dynamics and track are well modeled. They'll do fine if they get that much precip with sub 0C 850s...it's not as if it hasn't snowed down there before in early March. Oh yeah I know. I'm not saying its going to rain, I really am trying to look at it from a perspective if I was down there forecasting for it. I would definitely temper my expectations with the factors on the table right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Actually a little better such hat the Cape is clipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Oh yeah I know. I'm not saying its going to rain, I really am trying to look at it from a perspective if I was down there forecasting for it. I would definitely temper my expectations with the factors on the table right now. Some precipitation will definitely be wasted due to rain, but I think the heavier banding will be snow just inland from the coast, especially as it gets later in the day. I could see someone in north central VA receiving 12"+ if the storm holds as modeled. I think some of the suburbs outside of DC will do a little well, especially those in the 300-500' elevation band as you head outside the City. The threat may be fading for RIC south just because the general track of the storm is further north, not because of the boundary layer. Meanwhile, the 0z GFS shows a solid snowstorm for snow-starved parts of the Midwest like Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I actually think there's a reasonable likelihood this storm brings some meaningful precipitation into SE areas as this will be a massive storm diameter-wise. Once the storm occludes and becomes vertically stacked, the precipitation shield will expand to the point where SE New England could be impacted by some of the outer bands, even if the low is well offshore. While I wouldn't expect a major event, it is something to keep an eye on. Precipitation type could also be an issue due to the east winds. In addition, the easterly flow north of the storm could advect enough moisture inland that there could be some easterly upslope along the east side of the Berkshires. Again, this likely wouldn't be significant, but it could mean some accumulating snow for these spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Actually a little better such hat the Cape is clipped. Pending the euro tiny tickles north each run nudging us into some possible snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Actually a little better such hat the Cape is clipped.when will you learn, our opinions are persona non grada in that forum. Its liike a millionaire walking into a goodwill and complaining about the merchandise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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