N. OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 No northern stream interaction = no new eng storm i think that about sums it up and it seems we still have a bit of time to get this to uccur canadian is further north without much N stream involvement that i can see....has the ML low east of HSE but precip well into sne thur eve but HIGH thickness values look to be tickling BOS-BDL basically where the precip is...maybe a warm toungue....dead dynamics.....meh on cmc i see one gefs 12z member that gives us excellent snows and 1 that gives us 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 i think that about sums it up and it seems we still have a bit of time to get this to occur canadian is further north without much N stream involvement that i can see....has the ML low east of HSE but precip well into sne thur eve but HIGH thickness values look to be tickling BOS-BDL basically where the precip is...maybe a warm toungue....dead dynamics.....meh on cmc i see one gefs 12z member that gives us excellent snows and 1 that gives us 3-6. Definitely not writing this system off but time is waning. The Euro has really honed in on the VA/MD area over the past couple days and I have felt that area was in a better position for this system. There are other issues with this system outside of track that make an accumulating snow difficult. Even if we do get some bands over us from a southerly track it will be difficult to accum with the E flow. BL will be marginal even with 850s below 0c. We will need more dynamics to cool that. I give a SNE snowstorm a less than 20% chance right now based on what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Definitely not writing this system off but time is waning. The Euro has really honed in on the VA/MD area over the past couple days and I have felt that area was in a better position for this system. There are other issues with this system outside of track that make an accumulating snow difficult. Even if we do get some bands over us from a southerly track it will be difficult to accum with the E flow. BL will be marginal even with 850s below 0c. We will need more dynamics to cool that. I give a SNE snowstorm a less than 20% chance right now based on what I see. Euro has been too supressed many times this winter. At 4 days the error has been a few hundred miles or better. My bet is this comes north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Euro has been too supressed many times this winter. At 4 days the error has been a few hundred miles or better. My bet is this comes north. I have my doubts with the Euro Ensm and GFS Ensm basically all in the same boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Euro has been too supressed many times this winter. At 4 days the error has been a few hundred miles or better. My bet is this comes north. the trend will end my friend has there been such a west based block during those times of a north trend? nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 What are we missing anyway. Unless you livr 1000'+ its gonna be a sloppy mess im more or less believing. I dont understand why people on other forum think if it trends more north, they get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I have nothing invested in this threat, zero. But at the same time many are basing what happens 3-5 days from now on models that have been fairly inept for most of the winter with threats ejecting off the east coast, ensembles included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 It's not like ens agreement is failsafe. Especially in a complex setup with not much room for error. Do agree with Bob though, it's a longshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I have nothing invested in this threat, zero. But at the same time many are basing what happens 3-5 days from now on models that have been fairly inept for most of the winter with threats ejecting off the east coast, ensembles included. if the n stream gets involved boom phase snow chance if not ......these s stream n trenders wont' trend 500 miles north into a monster block....even if the SW modeled takes a more N path w-e across the miss valley. plus it's bootleg so like capecod and bob said. no phase no new england snow. so i'm basing this on a monster west -NAO block and this baby likely getting supress'd by it. if there was NO block i'd think the seasonal trend may wiggle this north. but because there is i don't know how this will get up here unless it's just a huge windfield and isolated showers around the huge low pressure with mid level low off hatteras and 1k getting catpaws potentially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I have nothing invested in this threat, zero. But at the same time many are basing what happens 3-5 days from now on models that have been fairly inept for most of the winter with threats ejecting off the east coast, ensembles included. There could be a system tracking south across FL out to Cuba and some will hold out hope that the models will trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Sounds like Euro ensembles now have moderate snow accums well up into Jersey..Think that may be the beginning of what we've been thinking with the trend north. We;ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 There could be a system tracking south across FL out to Cuba and some will hold out hope that the models will trend north. Well that's better odds than 99% of our severe "threats" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Sounds like Euro ensembles now have moderate snow accums well up into Jersey..Think that may be the beginning of what we've been thinking with the trend north. We;ll see lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 if the n stream gets involved boom phase snow chance if not ......these s stream n trenders wont' trend 500 miles north into a monster block....even if the SW modeled takes a more N path w-e across the miss valley. plus it's bootleg so like capecod and bob said. no phase no new england snow. so i'm basing this on a monster west -NAO block and this baby likely getting supress'd by it. if there was NO block i'd think the seasonal trend may wiggle this north. but because there is i don't know how this will get up here unless it's just a huge windfield and isolated showers around the huge low pressure with mid level low off hatteras and 1k getting catpaws potentially I think winds would be more ENE than due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Well that's better odds than 99% of our severe "threats" At least with convective threads we usually at least get a rumble of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 lol Well then I expect you'll have sunny and 48-52 everyday next week on air tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I think winds would be more ENE than due east. sure maybe even more NE (55 degrees) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 lol qpf = snow since it's N of the 0c 850 line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 qpf = snow since it's N of the 0c 850 line. The new "benchmark" is 35N/70W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The new "benchmark" is 35N/70W Considering the last 2 runs the Euro ens didn't get much qpf to Philly and Central Jersey and now they're in the 3-6 range..that's a pretty substantial move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Considering the last 2 runs the Euro ens didn't get much qpf to Philly and Central Jersey and now they're in the 3-6 range..that's a pretty substantial move .....they are not even snow on ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 OMG, the 18z GFS has the ULL further E! "this iswhat a model hallucination is" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 .....they are not even snow on ensembles Yes it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yes it is Please tell us how you know is as fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 DC looks to get crushed on this run of the Geefus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 what link are you using bob raliegh wx is only out to 66/72 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 what link are you using bob raliegh wx is only out to 66/72 now NCEP and E-Wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 SATURDAY 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE *** .. WESTERN half of VA up into WINCHESTER sees 1-2 feet of snow/.... DCA / BWI now sees alot of snow .... EVEN SOUTHEAST VA will see rain to snow after 7pm WED NIGHT ... and we now see MODERATE SNOW up into to Philly and NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 96h panel. Crushed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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