Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 NE winds at 850 = snow right? That's what you posted the other day so we're good, As Scooter said, we'll need some dyamics as well in order for the snow to accum. Airmass is not all that great preceeding this and E inflow off the ocean will warm the BL some. I'd feel a feel a hell of a lot better if this came NE a bit and bombed out SE of the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Here is a start for you Kevin Grumm, R.H., and R.E. Hart, 2001: Standardized Anomalies Applied to Significant Cold Season Weather Events: Preliminary Findings. Wea. And Forecasting, 16, 736-754. Grumm, R.H., N.W. Junker, R. Hart, and L.F. Bosart, 2002: Can Possible Heavy Rainfall Events be Identified by Comparing Various Parameters to Climatological Norms? Weather Analysis and Forecasting, San Antonio, TX, August 12-16. Hart, R.E., and R.H. Grumm, 2001: Using Normalized Climatological Anomalies to Rank Synoptic-Scale Events Objectively. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2426-2442 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 You have been downright mean to many posters on here recently. Take a break for a few days or a week and come back refreshed BS, you just think you can make stuff up and get away with it. Sorry dude, not being mean to anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 BS, you just think you can make stuff up and get away with it. Sorry dude, not being mean to anyone.I won't be talking to you for awhile. Good day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Ginx is right, the strong 850 inflow is a signal, but that worked well in jan 2005 when models were not as good as they are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Here is a start for you Kevin Grumm, R.H., and R.E. Hart, 2001: Standardized Anomalies Applied to Significant Cold Season Weather Events: Preliminary Findings. Wea. And Forecasting, 16, 736-754. Grumm, R.H., N.W. Junker, R. Hart, and L.F. Bosart, 2002: Can Possible Heavy Rainfall Events be Identified by Comparing Various Parameters to Climatological Norms? Weather Analysis and Forecasting, San Antonio, TX, August 12-16. Hart, R.E., and R.H. Grumm, 2001: Using Normalized Climatological Anomalies to Rank Synoptic-Scale Events Objectively. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2426-2442 Exactly, heavy QPF not heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 As Scooter said, we'll need some dyamics as well in order for the snow to accum. Airmass is not all that great preceeding this and E inflow off the ocean will warm the BL some. I'd feel a feel a hell of a lot better if this came NE a bit and bombed out SE of the BM East inflow like that is good for oro lifting in elevations. Obviously you would want to be in the comma head but right now ain"t happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I won't be talking to you for awhile. Good day LOL, what a baby you can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Exactly, heavy QPF not heavy snow. exactly unless you live in the Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Ginx is right, the strong 850 inflow is a signal, but that worked well in jan 2005 when models were not as good as they are now. Would be nice if this came north and more NE but that seems unlikely today. Seems to me too much inflow and this is taint and more like a elevation special. But it means little as progged today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 According to the NYC thread the 6z runs brought it further north. Gfs navgem ggem ens. Most in there are also saying the best hope for it to continue coming north is if the blocking has been over modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 According to the NYC thread the 6z runs brought it further north. Gfs navgem ggem ens. Most in there are also saying the best hope for it to continue coming north is if the blocking has been over modeled. That's also possible, but blocking won't go poof either. We'll need a combo of that and a further north ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 That's also possible, but blocking won't go poof either. We'll need a combo of that and a further north ULL. There is pretty well established easterly flow throughout the column. It will be hard to track into that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 KMA looks positively cheeky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 LOL, what a baby you can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Look at that spoke of the mutha upper low that holds across NY/NE like a sword of damocles...deflecting the lovely closed low right out to sea off the Carolinas. Confluence killing any chances north of the M-D line it seems. If that scenario holds in the models, then there isn't gonna be much room for northward adjustments. Maybe this will be like a PD1 storm rerun. That's also possible, but blocking won't go poof either. We'll need a combo of that and a further north ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The ULL is initially closed off in like southern IL, but it is pushed ESE toward SC/NC by the ultra blocking I guess. It's a pretty anomalous situation. That's also possible, but blocking won't go poof either. We'll need a combo of that and a further north ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 East inflow like that is good for oro lifting in elevations. Obviously you would want to be in the comma head but right now ain"t happening. correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Not investing any time for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Look at that spoke of the mutha upper low that holds across NY/NE like a sword of damocles...deflecting the lovely closed low right out to sea off the Carolinas. Confluence killing any chances north of the M-D line it seems. If that scenario holds in the models, then there isn't gonna be much room for northward adjustments. Maybe this will be like a PD1 storm rerun. Yeah as modeled it's cooked. But pretty much every little event on the Cape was "cooked" at this range by all the models, so worth watching for another 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yeah this is just hopeless in Maine ..and damn near hopeless here probably. If the 12Z Euro holds it's probably a done deal because you are inside 4 days then. Not investing any time for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Well yeah way out east there at 70 west nothings ever impossible. You always have that chance. Yeah as modeled it's cooked. But pretty much every little event on the Cape was "cooked" at this range by all the models, so worth watching for another 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 well Kevin if you are looking for positives the 3rd analog on the list is 03/03/94 A strong low pressure system moving to the northeast over the ocean from the Delmarva Peninsula and passing to the southeast of Cape Cod resulted in a strong nor'easter with heavy snow and blowing and drifting snow, except over the southeast portion of the state. Snowfall amounts of 6 to 15 inches fell from the Boston metro area west and north. Over southeast Massachusetts there was three to six inches of snow before a change to rain. Less than three inches fell over Cape Cod and the Islands. Worcester reported a total of 14.8 inches when light snow ended on March 4th. The total for the season there reached 88.0 inches. The National Weather Service at Boston's Logan International Airport measured 7.8 inches bringing the seasonal snowfall total to 89.3 inches and establishing a new record for any season since records began in 1891-92. The old record was 89.2 inches in 1947-48. Strong to gale force northeast winds accompanied this storm with gusts to 40 to 60 mph and piled up snow in two to three foot drifts, especially in central Massachusetts. In Marlboro, a 60- by 100-foot section of roof collapsed at an automobile dealership. Most fortunately, this occurred at 0430 EST on the morning of March 4th, when nobody was in the building. Damage was estimated at $500,000. Schools and businesses were closed and highway travel severely disrupted by this storm. As that storm was about to move in, I was on a plane to London for my first leg in double overnighters with the next night going to Johannesburg. When I got to London the first thing I did was call my wife to get a report and she reported 8 inches. I returned 3 weeks later and winter was petering out. But what a winter it was! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 We need some piece of the vort from the northern stream to phase into the trough to bring it north. The upper level low itself isn't going to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Besides the suppression, it really doesn't help much that the jet is rather fast and flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 We got another good one ...a super clipper around St. Paddy's Day that year. I just remember that on the first of Spring 1994 my hike club did a hike along the Hudson below ALB and it was still frozen solid with just the ice breaker channel. Its wintry here today ..lots of flurries and still 28. As that storm was about to move in, I was on a plane to London for my first leg in double overnighters with the next night going to Johannesburg. When I got to London the first thing I did was call my wife to get a report and she reported 8 inches. I returned 3 weeks later and winter was petering out. But what a winter it was! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 We need some piece of the vort from the northern stream to phase into the trough to bring it north. The upper level low itself isn't going to do it. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 JB says mason dixon line south with this one-ensembles tightly clustered=likes March 1962 as analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GFS has come way north from the 0z. Not that interested in following until later tonight into Sunday, but that's a big shift for 12 hours. Aside of the blizzard, all models have been atrocious at this range. To assume that this time they're going to be close to right at 4-5 days...well odds say that will be a foolish assumption. Out to enjoy Morch. (the UA features over us will be gone faster than models predict, JMHO...remember models have been too far SW with UA features over us at 3-5 days all along, whether it's stalled blizzards or backdown snows last night) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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