moneypitmike Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 My gut says keep the snow shovel out, that is a decent block, climo has me spooked and says this thing should deliver a bomb to sne. Perhaps a compromise is in order? Or perhaps it's another blizzard, just not feeling a complete miss at all right now no matter how badly I want to start my clean ups next week. It's coming I thought you still had snow on the ground???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Probably because a few weenie members are north. We're still waiting for you to tell us what the Euro ens have. Nothing points to this staying south..It's March..not Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I thought you still had snow on the ground???? patches here in Fairfield, nothing down in Greewich Stamford and Darien where most of my properties are...........they have been snow free for a few days at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 We're still waiting for you to tell us what the Euro ens have. Nothing points to this staying south..It's March..not Jan I don't have QPF but my guess is very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I thought you still had snow on the ground???? About a week out up here, just ready for it to be gone already and its going fast now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I don't have QPF but my guess is very little. How come you're going with a miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 How come you're going with a miss? Well if I put up a 7 day forecast I would go with a near miss. I'm still being a sloth and haven't looked at anything in detail so I'm not commenting too much. It comes down to phasing and I don't know if we can do it in a timely manner. I'll look more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 How strong is the block? that seems key to the whole situation.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Well if I put up a 7 day forecast I would go with a near miss. I'm still being a sloth and haven't looked at anything in detail so I'm not commenting too much. It comes down to phasing and I don't know if we can do it in a timely manner. I'll look more. Look for positives..reasons why it can and will happen. i don't want to hear why it won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 You and us on Long Island both. The coastal flooding and erosion post-Sandy aspect is another reason I wouldn't be that pissed to just let this one go to the DC and Mid Atlantic crew. Yep enough damage has been done. If the options are a damaging near miss or nothing I will take nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Look for positives..reasons why it can and will happen. i don't want to hear why it won't. LOL you need to be realistic too. We all want it, but can't always have every storm. When all guidance misses 5 days out...pretty good consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 LOL you need to be realistic too. We all want it, but can't always have every storm. When all guidance misses 5 days out...pretty good consensus. Maybe..I just have a hard time believing it doesn't come north to some degree. it's not an epic block like 2010 was and it's late in the season. I'm not saying KU..but I don't see why we can't get a decent snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Maybe..I just have a hard time believing it doesn't come north to some degree. it's not an epic block like 2010 was and it's late in the season. I'm not saying KU..but I don't see why we can't get a decent snowfall Yeah that's possible too. I dunno...I sort of see this as a big hit or nothing. Weak precip rates won't do anything for us...even higher elevations. You can't write anything off 5 days out...and it won't take much to bring it north so there is hope. Realistically just not sure its a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The ULL just moves east and the block keeps this south. Looks like a miss for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 well Kevin if you are looking for positives the 3rd analog on the list is 03/03/94 A strong low pressure system moving to the northeast over the ocean from the Delmarva Peninsula and passing to the southeast of Cape Cod resulted in a strong nor'easter with heavy snow and blowing and drifting snow, except over the southeast portion of the state. Snowfall amounts of 6 to 15 inches fell from the Boston metro area west and north. Over southeast Massachusetts there was three to six inches of snow before a change to rain. Less than three inches fell over Cape Cod and the Islands. Worcester reported a total of 14.8 inches when light snow ended on March 4th. The total for the season there reached 88.0 inches. The National Weather Service at Boston's Logan International Airport measured 7.8 inches bringing the seasonal snowfall total to 89.3 inches and establishing a new record for any season since records began in 1891-92. The old record was 89.2 inches in 1947-48. Strong to gale force northeast winds accompanied this storm with gusts to 40 to 60 mph and piled up snow in two to three foot drifts, especially in central Massachusetts. In Marlboro, a 60- by 100-foot section of roof collapsed at an automobile dealership. Most fortunately, this occurred at 0430 EST on the morning of March 4th, when nobody was in the building. Damage was estimated at $500,000. Schools and businesses were closed and highway travel severely disrupted by this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I remember that storm. We changed to rain but had no school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I remember that storm. We changed to rain but had no school. this seems more likely to me, not SE winds though MA 19980128/2200 STRONG WINDS WFO: BOX A large and powerful slow moving ocean storm passing across the Atlantic Ocean to the south of Cape Cod brought strong southeast winds to southeastern Massachusetts, with high tides and beach erosion affecting north and east facing coastal areas. The strong northeast winds before high tide piled water toward shore and combined with astronomically high tides to produce coastal flooding. Some peak wind gusts reported late on January 28th included: Buzzards Bay Buoy, 52 mph at 5 PM; Boston Buoy, 45 mph at 9 PM and midnight. Some peak wind gusts reported during the morning of January 29th included: Nantucket, 53 mph at 1:15 AM; Bourne, 52 mph at 2 AM; Dennis, 46 mph; and Martha's Vineyard, 45 mph. Coastal flooding was reported along the coast south of Boston at Hull and Scituate, where shore roads were closed because crashing waves sent rocks and other debris over sea walls. The tide in Scituate was reported to be about 3 feet above normal. An 80-foot section of the most vulnerable sea wall in Scituate collapsed in the aftermath of the storm, on the tide following the noon high tide on January 29th. This left a section of one coastal road completely (but temporarily) unprotected. Farther south along the coast of Marshfield, in the Brant Rock section, the surf washed over cars parked near a pier and flooded several streets. On Cape Cod, three dozen dolphins died after being stranded on Cape beaches by the high tide. On Nantucket Island, Pebble Beach parking lot was relocated due to erosion and high tide was reported to be 2.5 feet above normal. On Martha's Vineyard, flooding was reported at Edgartown and at several other points along the coast. In the Boston area, high tides forced the closing of several coastal roads to the north and south of the city. Roads were closed for about one hour around the time of the noon high tide. However, in Winthrop, one coastal causeway was closed for two hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I remember that storm as well back in Bristol CT...just about a foot of snow and it was very cold with blowing and drifting as the storm pulled away. For some reason I want to say that i did not think we were going to get that much snow from that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yeah there's nothing to keep this so far south. I would think tomorrow at 12z is when we start to see the real shift North begin.that Ull will end up farther north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yeah there's nothing to keep this so far south. I would think tomorrow at 12z is when we start to see the real shift North begin. yea there is. Modeled right now it certainly is a fish storm for us and is well well south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yeah there's nothing to keep this so far south. I would think tomorrow at 12z is when we start to see the real shift North begin. I just mentioned why. The only way it comes north without phasing is to have the ULL itself move north which may be difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 yea there is. Modeled right now it certainly is a fish storm for us and is well well south. It's not the strongest anomaly in the world, but the high heights are pretty far south from where we would want them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I just mentioned why. The only way it comes north without phasing is to have the ULL itself move north which may be difficult. Just read one of your posts in the MA if Zwyts and Ian get to be Mets so do I. Matts a lawyer and Ian a journalist, both excellent hobbyists and very knowledgeable but not College trained and degreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Just read one of your posts in the MA if Zwyts and Ian get to be Mets so do I. Matts a lawyer and Ian a journalist, both excellent hobbyists and very knowledgeable but not College trained and degreed. They probably know more about the climo there then most mets there. Zwyts knows his shiat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I just mentioned why. The only way it comes north without phasing is to have the ULL itself move north which may be difficult.I don't see why at 5 days out that's difficult, it seems almost every ULL ends up farther north than modeled at that time frame. Case in point the current one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It's not the strongest anomaly in the world, but the high heights are pretty far south from where we would want them. This is however an interesting -sd 850 infeed, could mean best stuff is north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This is however an interesting -sd 850 infeed, could mean best stuff is north?NE winds at 850 = snow right? That's what you posted the other day so we're good, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 NE winds at 850 = snow right? That's what you posted the other day so we're good, thats not what i said, learn how to read, read up on some Meteorology. - SD 850 east wind transport stuff. Stop making sh it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This is however an interesting -sd 850 infeed, could mean best stuff is north? It's definitely farther north than the models are showing good QPF, but it's still centered more towards south Jersey than SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 thats not what i said, learn how to read, read up on some Meterology. 850 east wind transport stuff. Stop making sh it up.You have been downright mean to many posters on here recently. Take a break for a few days or a week and come back refreshed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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