Heisy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It seems the models have slowly lost that piece of northern branch that was "supposed" to phase in. The 12z GFS/GGEM did it...Old EURO runs did it, but now it seems like we need latitude and not phasing....ugh. Could have been one of the great ones too. This really eats at my soul because we had model runs that showed the effect of such a phase. I did like the 00z NAM @ 84 hours because the ULL was farther north. We need it farther north as it heads east since it is looking less and less likely that a phase occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Where'd the northern stream energy go?! No mechanism left to turn the trough negative allowing the low to gain latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Father............signature piece. Over and out. Ths ones a slam dunk for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The futility of spending much time on threats outside of 3 days.... Lets see where the models are in 36 hours. Ggem no lookie so good. Monster low but it's a scraper. Worry about it in a few days. I think I'm more worried about rain than a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 UKIE looks almost exactly like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 yoda stfu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 UKIE looks almost exactly like the GFS That's not good for the GFS...kidding aside the UKIE has probably been the worst of the majors lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 scooterooo said this is a complex set up and there will be plenty of model hallucinations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Eh, with it being a ways out I feel like we're better off with modeled misses for now. If it were showing a KU for us right now, we could count on it not happening. I don't think there's been any consistency from run to run yet right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Eh, with it being a ways out I feel like we're better off with modeled misses for now. If it were showing a KU for us right now, we could count on it not happening. I don't think there's been any consistency from run to run yet right?violently disagree. not much consistency no well see if the latest 12 hr trend of not much phasing/ No n stream energy.... continues tommorrow and porks us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Ensembles are certainly north of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 scooterooo said this is a complex set up and there will be plenty of model hallucinations Yep, no matter what the outcome. So many s/w's involved..it's amazing how different the pattern looks every 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 violently disagree. not much consistency no well see if the latest 12 hr trend of not much phasing/ No n stream energy.... continues tommorrow and porks us Yeah if it starts showing us getting screwed with consistency then that's a pretty clear sign lol. Why disagree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yep, no matter what the outcome. So many s/w's involved..it's amazing how different the pattern looks every 6 hrs. Only reasonable thing to do is a gefs euro ens mix for another day or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yeah if it starts showing us getting screwed with consistency then that's a pretty clear sign lol. Why disagree? BC on all models the ML lows are not really anywhere close enuf to crush us. we are not even really in the game for a KU. I barely see us in the game for a mod. snow storm seems like it may be tuff to get dynamics up this far north into bootleg airmass part infiniti. This is def not something i would like to see, nevermind something i would rather see then have us under the gun at this time frame. I don't really understand what the debate is on this/maybe i'm missing something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 BC on all models the ML lows are not really anywhere close enuf to crush us. we are not even really in the game for a KU. I barely see us in the game for a mod. snow storm seems like it may be tuff to get dynamics up this far north into bootleg airmass part infiniti. This is def not something i would like to see, nevermind something i would rather see then have us under the gun at this time frame. I don't really understand what the debate is on this/maybe i'm missing something Yeah I see whatcha saying. My main point was just that there's so much shifting run to run, so the lack of continuity = at least I'm not seeing something awesome to get attached to that won't be there in 12hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 That's not good for the GFS...kidding aside the UKIE has probably been the worst of the majors lately. But it is getting into its time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Euro says congrats Virginia... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The futility of spending much time on threats outside of 3 days.... Lets see where the models are in 36 hours. Ggem no lookie so good. Monster low but it's a scraper. Worry about it in a few days. I think I'm more worried about rain than a miss. You and us on Long Island both. The coastal flooding and erosion post-Sandy aspect is another reason I wouldn't be that pissed to just let this one go to the DC and Mid Atlantic crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Did the Euro ens continue to get measurable well up into SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Just back to looking at things since Wednesday's snows. First, we're less than 9 months to Met-Winter. It'll be here before you know it. With respect to this system, given the atrocious track record of models this year, I think anyone whom is being crused by models should be sleeping in a bed of caution flags, and anyone who's sitting high and dry should be tossing them caution flags to use as blankets. Anyone who gets excited this far out is setting themselves up for disaapointment. Meanwhile, I'm flying from BDL to CID through CLT and ORD on Thursday morning (returning Friday night). My expectation is taking off on a dry runway in BDL, landing in rain in CLT. No fuss, no muss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Other than the one Euro run, this has been a NC/VA special for most of the runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Other than the one Euro run, this has been a NC/VA special for most of the runs... Sure if you don't count the GFS, GGEM/GGEM ens/Euro Ens getting the .25 line to the Pike and GEFS It's March..the liklihood of this not shifting north some and giving us no snow is very low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Other than the one Euro run, this has been a NC/VA special for most of the runs... Yeah still seems that way. A lot of time left though, but I would keep expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Sure if you don't count the GFS, GGEM/GGEM ens/Euro Ens getting the .25 line to the Pike and GEFS P It's March..the liklihood of this not shifting north some and giving us no snow is very low Probably because a few weenie members are north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Sure if you don't count the GFS, GGEM/GGEM ens/Euro Ens getting the .25 line to the Pike and GEFS It's March..the liklihood of this not shifting north some and giving us no snow is very low Agree, historically many have come north, but there's always the March 62's out there...we need it all the way, light or moderate precip isn't going to get it done in this case....and no, i'm not counting the GFS in this scenario-Euro is usually the way to go with the biggies.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yeah still seems that way. A lot of time left though, but I would keep expectations in check. Unless there's some major hinting today of opportunity, I'm writing this one off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 My gut says keep the snow shovel out, that is a decent block, climo has me spooked and says this thing should deliver a bomb to sne. Perhaps a compromise is in order? Or perhaps it's another blizzard, just not feeling a complete miss at all right now no matter how badly I want to start my clean ups next week. It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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