Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I dunno if I'd call it the southern outlier...its definitely south of multiple members I'd imagine though because the ensemble mean does get about a quarter inch of QPF into SNE. The ens mean takes the storm due east but its ariel coverage is greater which implies some members north. I should have been more specific; I was talking about the 500mb surface, only - but if the mean is SE of the op with SFC, while NW at 500mb there's something wrong - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Nope. Just powder powder powder. BTV's got 6 straight periods of "snow likely" in the forecast right now, and a -NAO building to the end of the season usually works better up here than in mid-winter when its a straight suppressed pattern. -NAO towards the end of March and April can be sweet in NNE. Yep and going to take full advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Nope. Just powder powder powder. BTV's got 6 straight periods of "snow likely" in the forecast right now, and a -NAO building to the end of the season usually works better up here than in mid-winter when its a straight suppressed pattern. -NAO towards the end of March and April can be sweet in NNE. Yeah, I'm looking at Wildcat's forecast as I'll be right next door at Carter Notch tomorrow and it's snow in every panel until Tuesday. Nice snowy period for the regular favored places. Hvy hvy snowshoes tmw morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Yeah, I'm looking at Wildcat's forecast as I'll be right next door at Carter Notch tomorrow and it's snow in every panel until Tuesday. Nice snowy period for the regular favored places. Hvy hvy snowshoes tmw morning. Nice! Enjoy. I'm jealous of how often you get out to different mountains. That's the one thing I wish I had...more time & flexibility to go elsewhere once in a while instead of a 6-7 day per week program on Mansfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Rex block in Quebec will have great determination on this event, placement and strength will greatly impact the track and intensity of our Mid Atlantic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Just slight differences from 12z to 18z. It's complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It looks like there should be another wintry period March 15-20 after the relaxation around the 10th. Even if we miss a huge snowstorm with the Mar 6-7 event, I'd expect everyone down to PHL/NYC to have another shot at a coastal snowstorm and cold weather in mid-March. Due to recent mild years people have forgotten that we frequently have snow until the equinox here in the NYC suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 18z GFS trying for a late phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 heh, E VA will find a way to get screwed one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Regardess, this will be a monster so with the size mattering....definitely something not to write off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 congrats Cape Fear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Cape gets some on this run. This can be150 miles SE of the BM and dump 1-2' still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 I'm thinking the models generally are a little overzealous in the intensity dept. prior to the coastal development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This will only change, 20 more GFS runs and 10 more Euro runs to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This will only change, 20 more GFS runs and 10 more Euro runs to go Tides high next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Tides high next week? 10.5 at high, not really, long fetch though if this stalls. The erosion is incredible up your way, saw a video the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This will only change, 20 more GFS runs and 10 more Euro runs to go No snow for you. GFS is only right when it's a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 No snow for you. GFS is only right when it's a miss. not even worried, if it happens it happens, 133 is the only number I am watching this month. You know exactly what i mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 10.5 at high, not really, long fetch though if this stalls. The erosion is incredible up your way, saw a video the other day. A lot of the dunes are damaged. The town got really fooked. Many said worst storm since '78. Although cstl flooding nothing like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The fact that all these misses for hundreds of miles still get precip into SNE is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 A lot of the dunes are damaged. The town got really fooked. Many said worst storm since '78. Although cstl flooding nothing like it. Yea those were some nasty tree losses, had to have had microbursts in there. I know that I felt winds like never before at my house and saw some bad damage in SRI, nothing like that but man some of those mesonets had huge winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 not even worried, if it happens it happens, 133 is the only number I am watching this month. You know exactly what i mean Same here, it's a cool threat but we'll see where it is in 2-3 days. 132 right now. Going to be a fun March and April. I ended up staying put this weekend, we will have to catch up up there before the end of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Same here, it's a cool threat but we'll see where it is in 2-3 days. 132 right now. Going to be a fun March and April. I ended up staying put this weekend, we will have to catch up up there before the end of the year. Okemo this week Maybe Sunapee next, 17 -24th SR,17th Wildcat, 25-26th Saddleback is the plan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The fact that all these misses for hundreds of miles still get precip into SNE is encouraging. Got to help having some extra margin for error right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Yea those were some nasty tree losses, had to have had microbursts in there. I know that I felt winds like never before at my house and saw some bad damage in SRI, nothing like that but man some of those mesonets had huge winds. They all went out during the height too. I asked Ryan when he had a sec, to look back at the vel data. You had to see the damage..never seen anything like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 18z GEFS mean is west of the operational run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Yeah Ant, noticed the precip shield looked decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Well looking like the potential for a pretty strong upslope/downslope (shadow) system for ENY and WNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Well looking like the potential for a pretty strong upslope/downslope (shadow) system for ENY and WNE.Leaving BOS where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It was an 80-100 macroburst. Can see it on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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