Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 There will be a storm on the East Coast is all anyone knows. Bouncy bouncy ball but watch that 700 dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 See my post in the Upstate thread. No...got very wet after intensity lightened and then picked up as extremely wet snow in the PM but it was slop.... if anything it was compressing. But still all white at home ...3 to 4 inches of the snow left and pre-existing several inches underneath in many spots. Hey did you squeeze out any more snow after after the 7" Wed morning? It's been warm in the valley with occasional light rain. Although we just had a graupel shower come through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The handling of the N Atlantic/Labrador/Quebec trainwreck has been changing quite a bit each run. We saw it from 00z to 12z just now on every model. I wouldn't expect very stable solutions. I will expect though that the chances of suppression are greater than anything coming too far NW given the Quebec block...but even that has been changing some from run to run, but the constant is that it has been there in one form or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 See my post in the Upstate thread. No...got very wet after intensity lightened and then picked up as extremely wet snow in the PM but it was slop.... if anything it was compressing. But still all white at home ...3 to 4 inches of the snow left and pre-existing several inches underneath in many spots.Even on the lower fields? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The handling of the N Atlantic/Labrador/Quebec trainwreck has been changing quite a bit each run. We saw it from 00z to 12z just now on every model. I wouldn't expect very stable solutions. I will expect though that the chances of suppression are greater than anything coming too far NW given the Quebec block...but even that has been changing some from run to run, but the constant is that it has been there in one form or another. Looping H5 is all you need to realize that it's going to take a few days to figure this out. Just so many pieces of the puzzle and they all play a role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Even on the lower fields? Just 1005' and lower. Above that is ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 46 degrees again today, in like a lamb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Fields had only maybe a trace to a few inches of ancient stuff...except drifts. Most of the old stuff was in the shade and woods. I'm not the snowfall capital this winter like Mt. Tolland. 47 inches all winter... Even on the lower fields? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 You laugh but in that elevation storm the other day I seriously think they got an inch less down the hill at 900 ft asl. LOL Just 1005' and lower. Above that is ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 You laugh but in that elevation storm the other day I seriously think they got an inch less down the hill at 900 ft asl. LOLGood stuff. Can you post a few pics of the upper and lower fields? Just so we can get an idea of the field difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Can't have every KU out there. I'm not interested in having every KU out there.... at least 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 MPM must be shivering in his shawl from QPF concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It actually scrapes ACK at 150 hours...that would be a messenger 200 post special. Not me man, you guys can do the 75 page lead-up to the event. I'll jump in when we get inside of 48 hours and it's either a threat, a rainer (for me) or potentially impacting Bermuda with clouds and lousy weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Could be the last hurrah of the winter given emerging teleconnectors... Both Euro and GFS now on board for negative PNA, and YES the PNA still correlates in March. I'm not yet convinced at how warm it really will be so long as the NAO stays even -1SD, such as is ensemble and operationally derived. If so, in New England? Forget it... cold rain/wet snow mud season with warm air not getting much N of the Mason Dixie in the means. Yeah, this system on the GFS would bring a classic spring blue bomb, that even classically ends as drizzle and light rain... The GFS oper. visualization could even be dry-ish wind strewn sheeting snow at mid storm. Then, as it attenuates the T creeps up toward 32 and its misting with a raw E wind into the CP for the last 6 hour prior to the storm pulling away. Interesting to see the normally progressive -biased GFS phasing more and thus allowing a more polarward position. That's either a red flag (and we saw the ECMWF just bust within 24 hours!) or rosining cosmic dildo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 Not me man, you guys can do the 75 page lead-up to the event. I'll jump in when we get inside of 48 hours and it's either a threat, a rainer (for me) or potentially impacting Bermuda with clouds and lousy weather. no way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It appears the Operational Euro is southerly outlier compared to the ensemble mean, which lips SNE inside two contours of isopleths aloft, likely mean greater impact than the oper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Euro ensembles are se of the op. MSLP that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It appears the Operational Euro is southerly outlier compared to the ensemble mean, which lips SNE inside two contours of isopleths aloft, likely mean greater impact than the oper. I dunno if I'd call it the southern outlier...its definitely south of multiple members I'd imagine though because the ensemble mean does get about a quarter inch of QPF into SNE. The ens mean takes the storm due east but its ariel coverage is greater which implies some members north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Euro ensembles and GEFS are also building another -NAO again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 That tells us that a northward shift will occur with the next couple of runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Euro ensembles and GEFS are also building another -NAO again. Last nights EC ens run got pretty cold again toward mid month after the brief relaxation around 3/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Last nights EC ens run got pretty cold again toward mid month after the brief relaxation around 3/10. Look at the blocking now as the ensemble finishes. Even up by AK too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 That tells us that a northward shift will occur with the next couple of runs There will be model hallucinations over the next 3-4 days. I guarantee it. This is very complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Last nights EC ens run got pretty cold again toward mid month after the brief relaxation around 3/10. That guy ranting about polar shifts the other night was right, mini ice age incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Euro ensembles and GEFS are also building another -NAO again. No shorts and Bikini skiing this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 There will be model hallucinations over the next 3-4 days. I guarantee it. This is very complicated. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3R-rtWPyJY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It looks like on the op that maybe we can tickle squeeze that storm on the 10th under us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It looks like on the op that maybe we can tickle squeeze that storm on the 10th under us? tickle this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It looks like on the op that maybe we can tickle squeeze that storm on the 10th under us? I'm expecting that one to have more room to cut, but its entirely possible it goes out underneath us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 No shorts and Bikini skiing this year Nope. Just powder powder powder. BTV's got 6 straight periods of "snow likely" in the forecast right now, and a -NAO building to the end of the season usually works better up here than in mid-winter when its a straight suppressed pattern. -NAO towards the end of March and April can be sweet in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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