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Early March threats - Mar 1st-8th Period


free_man

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See my post in the Upstate thread.   No...got very wet after intensity lightened and then picked up as extremely wet snow in the PM but it was slop....  if anything it was compressing. But still all white at home ...3 to 4 inches of the snow left and pre-existing several inches underneath in many spots.

 

 

Hey did you squeeze out any more snow after after the 7" Wed morning?  It's been warm in the valley with occasional light rain.  Although we just had a graupel shower come through.

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The handling of the N Atlantic/Labrador/Quebec trainwreck has been changing quite a bit each run. We saw it from 00z to 12z just now on every model. I wouldn't expect very stable solutions. I will expect though that the chances of suppression are greater than anything coming too far NW given the Quebec block...but even that has been changing some from run to run, but the constant is that it has been there in one form or another.

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See my post in the Upstate thread. No...got very wet after intensity lightened and then picked up as extremely wet snow in the PM but it was slop.... if anything it was compressing. But still all white at home ...3 to 4 inches of the snow left and pre-existing several inches underneath in many spots.

Even on the lower fields?
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The handling of the N Atlantic/Labrador/Quebec trainwreck has been changing quite a bit each run. We saw it from 00z to 12z just now on every model. I wouldn't expect very stable solutions. I will expect though that the chances of suppression are greater than anything coming too far NW given the Quebec block...but even that has been changing some from run to run, but the constant is that it has been there in one form or another.

 

Looping H5 is all you need to realize that it's going to take a few days to figure this out. Just so many pieces of the puzzle and they all play a role.

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It actually scrapes ACK at 150 hours...that would be a messenger 200 post special.

 

Not me man, you guys can do the 75 page lead-up to the event.  I'll jump in when we get inside of 48 hours and it's either a threat, a rainer (for me) or potentially impacting Bermuda with clouds and lousy weather. 

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Could be the last hurrah of the winter given emerging teleconnectors... Both Euro and GFS now on board for negative PNA, and YES the PNA still correlates in March. 

 

I'm not yet convinced at how warm it really will be so long as the NAO stays even -1SD, such as is ensemble and operationally derived.  If so, in New England?  

 

Forget it... cold rain/wet snow mud season with warm air not getting much N of the Mason Dixie in the means.  

 

Yeah, this system on the GFS would bring a classic spring blue bomb, that even classically ends as drizzle and light rain... The GFS oper. visualization could even be dry-ish wind strewn sheeting snow at mid storm.  Then, as it attenuates the T creeps up toward 32 and its misting with a raw E wind into the CP for the last 6 hour prior to the storm pulling away.  

 

Interesting to see the normally progressive -biased GFS phasing more and thus allowing a more polarward position.  That's either a red flag (and we saw the ECMWF just bust within 24 hours!) or rosining cosmic dildo.   

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Not me man, you guys can do the 75 page lead-up to the event.  I'll jump in when we get inside of 48 hours and it's either a threat, a rainer (for me) or potentially impacting Bermuda with clouds and lousy weather. 
no way.
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It appears the Operational Euro is southerly outlier compared to the ensemble mean, which lips SNE inside two contours of isopleths aloft, likely mean greater impact than the oper. 

 

 

I dunno if I'd call it the southern outlier...its definitely south of multiple members I'd imagine though because the ensemble mean does get about a quarter inch of QPF into SNE. The ens mean takes the storm due east but its ariel coverage is greater which implies some members north.

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No shorts and Bikini skiing this year

 

Nope.  Just powder powder powder. 

 

BTV's got 6 straight periods of "snow likely" in the forecast right now, and a -NAO building to the end of the season usually works better up here than in mid-winter when its a straight suppressed pattern.  -NAO towards the end of March and April can be sweet in NNE.

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