weatherMA Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I kind of don't want this to happen. I'd be shocked if it trended N enough to be a big hit up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Scary the GFS is so far north at 6 days out. I think we'd be much better off if it was still ots I think the pendulum could swing quite easily from deep SE suppression to warm occluded mess and back again. All guidance still takes a strong vortmax deep into the SE... the difference from previous suppressed runs is the extreme negative tilt and retrograding off the Atlantic. Unlike classical noreasters, I don't think this will simply trend north with the SLP because the midlevel low starts so far southeast and swings out into the Atlantic. I think the occlusion process and the trof evolution and associated warming off the Atlantic are the keys... and that's probably where we will see trends. I could see this getting warm... with maybe a CPA jackpot. It could also easily be a long duration snow bomb. Precip reaches SW PA in 4 days and NYC in 5. Slow mover. This is not so distant midrange, but of course we are likely to see huge changes in modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Due south of benchmark or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I kind of don't want this to happen. I'd be shocked if it trended N enough to be a big hit up here. You'll just have to chase again back home if it ends up as a long duration snow event in SNE...with some enhancement in the hills with both upslope and elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Not a surprise, but GEFS still way SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I do like that high. Yeah beautiful looking omega block developing so we're going to see a bomb. The placement will be tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 You'll just have to chase again back home if it ends up as a long duration snow event in SNE...with some enhancement in the hills with both upslope and elevation. Yeah but it would be tough because I would have classes up here and it would just be a bad idea. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 12z GGEM has massive QPF from DC to NYC and through EPA and NJ. Somebody gets buried on that run... like avalanched, disappeared never to be found again buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Not a surprise, but GEFS still way SE.That tells us 18z will be suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GGEM always has massive QPF..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 That tells us 18z will be suppressed Well 06z ensembles were way offshore and 12z came NW. This is the nature of the GEFS..I expected them to be SE..they did come NW a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 12z GGEM has massive QPF from DC to NYC and through EPA and NJ. Somebody gets buried on that run... like avalanched, disappeared never to be found again buried. With something like this it matters exactly where the deepening and closing off occurs. If it occurs too early we could see a big bust (i.e. models printing out 1"-2" of QPF and we wind up dry slotting and getting all sorts of crap precip in here). What you want is a perfectly timed close off/deepening to maximize QG lift overhead. Tough to do. Could be around DC or could be around BOS. The typical rules for east coast cyclogenesis don't necessarily apply here as we're waiting for the block to evolve to determine where the upstream closed low in the omega block develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Any chance some of this precip gets up into CNE and NNE? This far out I'd guess it is possible, but looking at the model outputs at unisys weather the high pressure block is chilling out over NNE and the front seems to stay south. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Not a surprise, but GEFS still way SE. Well the 12z GFS actually takes the SLP way offshore. With that in mind, the GEFs mean SLP position doesn't look that far SE to me...especially at 120hr and 132hr. I think it's signaling pretty good support... and has pulled a little closer and wetter the past few runs. A handful of complete whiffs on the individuals will bias the mean dry. But the NW members should be wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 We are seeing more of the energy from the retrograde low in Maine/Quebec phase in with the incoming shortwave from the plains...assisted by a third bit of energy hanging out over the lakes. This is helping us see the further north solutions versus the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GGEM loop out on PSU http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 With something like this it matters exactly where the deepening and closing off occurs. If it occurs too early we could see a big bust (i.e. models printing out 1"-2" of QPF and we wind up dry slotting and getting all sorts of crap precip in here). What you want is a perfectly timed close off/deepening to maximize QG lift overhead. Tough to do. Could be around DC or could be around BOS. The typical rules for east coast cyclogenesis don't necessarily apply here as we're waiting for the block to evolve to determine where the upstream closed low in the omega block develops. Great post. I think the usual... "it's north", "it's suppressed", "it's amped" weenie analyses have even less utility in this scenario than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 What a beautiful GGEM run, all snow or close down here. Something like it's showing is probably the ideal solution for many of us here. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I kind of don't want this to happen. I'd be shocked if it trended N enough to be a big hit up here. Rooting for no snow for everyone then? lol, we get snows in different patterns and storms than SNE. I hope they get another biggie...it's be fun to track especially if we aren't in the game. There's something relaxing about tracking weather events that don't impact you as you're not worried the whole time lol. You've had a rough first winter up there, but you'll get over worrying about down south getting snow with nothing up north. There will always be the storms that snow up here and don't down there. We see plenty of snow in a NNE winter to worry about that stuff, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Great post. I think the usual... "it's north", "it's suppressed", "it's amped" weenie analyses have even less utility in this scenario than normal. Look at the GGEM loop on the PSU Ewall. If you look at the 700mb chart look at how much sneaky dry air there is around that 700mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The GGEM stacks and stalls over the delmarva. The GFS does it east of there... maybe 100 miles offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Let's just lock the GGEM solution for this storm...everyone's happy...winter ends in a bang...who's in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Look at the GGEM loop on the PSU Ewall. If you look at the 700mb chart look at how much sneaky dry air there is around that 700mb low. Looks dry north of the low until late. Then quick shot of precip before dry slot. Not very good for NE (excluding southern parts of CT). The occlusion is too far SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Looks dry north of the low until late. Then quick shot of precip before dry slot. Not very good for NE (excluding southern parts of CT). The occlusion is too far SW. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Let's just lock the GGEM solution for this storm...everyone's happy...winter ends in a bang...who's in? Sounds good to me! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Looks dry north of the low until late. Then quick shot of precip before dry slot. Not very good for NE (excluding southern parts of CT). The occlusion is too far SW. I dunno...I'd be careful at only focusing on where the storm bombs out the most intense. Obviously that is a great spot for ML fronto and QG forcing...but I wouldn't disregard a total firehose coming off the Atlantic in the mid-levels. December 1992 bombed and stalled way to our SW but we didn't have a lack of QPF for sure. There was also a sharp cutoff in that one which is noted. No two storms are exactly alike, but we've seen storms where we get hammered from strong mid-level inflow off the Atlantic with the best dynamics to our SW...we've also gotten screwed in similar setups. I think its good to look at it from both angles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The GGEM also shows the northern piece the GFS is showing. Man if that happens it will be a memorable storm for someone. The GGEM precip is INSANE. Having the GFS show 2-3" of QPF is insane for this far out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 12z Ukie has low coming of HAT and moving basically due E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GGEM is feet. Odd analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 12z Ukie has low coming of HAT and moving basically due E. Yeah that barely would get anything north of DC, nevermind our area, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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