ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 6 days out . Man how far north could this come? That's a pretty stout block up in Quebec..there's def a limit to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 6 days out . Man how far north could this come? Having the current ULL, as well as modeled incoming s/w to our N, will help in this case, imo. I'd like to see ridging a little more E for our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 So close to being a hit here. Still a ways to go, so a few more NW ticks brings SNH in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Thinking inside my fetish box. This would be a wet Willow wrecking snow right? This wouldn't be one of those 20 degree fluff bombs would it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Man this baby is awe inspiring, I will def. roadtrip to wherever the max snowfall ends up being 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think GFS is over phasing it because it sends the initial shortwave farther south than any model...so if we adjusted it, it would be better for I-95, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Be careful what you wish for too. The ULL sucks in a ton of warmer air...a reason why this thing has so much precip so far north. You almost want it to phase a bit later and have it tuck NW towards the BM or a place like that and let dynamics go bonkers here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 That's a pretty stout block up in Quebec..there's def a limit to thisMy worry is it comes too far north for mixing issues . I think the key is the ULL position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Thinking inside my fetish box. This would be a wet Willow wrecking snow right? This wouldn't be one of those 20 degree fluff bombs would it? Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Be careful what you wish for too. The ULL sucks in a ton of warmer air...a reason why this thing has so much precip so far north. You almost want it to phase a bit later and have it tuck NW towards the BM or a place like that and let dynamics go bonkers here. Yeah if you phase this even earlier than shown and have it go crazy, we end up with rain in NYC/BOS and a snowbomb in DC...almost like a 2/26/10 but further SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Be careful what you wish for too. The ULL sucks in a ton of warmer air...a reason why this thing has so much precip so far north. You almost want it to phase a bit later and have it tuck NW towards the BM or a place like that and let dynamics go bonkers here. Yeah that's a warm evolution. Nice for distant interior but probably issues south of the Pike and inside 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Scary the GFS is so far north at 6 days out. I think we'd be much better off if it was still ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Be careful what you wish for too. The ULL sucks in a ton of warmer air...a reason why this thing has so much precip so far north. You almost want it to phase a bit later and have it tuck NW towards the BM or a place like that and let dynamics go bonkers here. I'm surprised the H85 freezing line gets to the pike later on in that solution. Definitely some low level warmth pushed inland, but a bombing for the hills throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The GFS is my fear, that it's so north and strong that we get a nice cold rain down here. Still plenty of time though, and it's good that we have a storm on the models. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Scary the GFS is so far north at 6 days out. I think we'd be much better off if it was still ots I was surprised to see it make such a jump. But the GFS often likes to teeter back and forth from amped to OTS/surpressed solutions at this time frame...perhaps it will jump back south in later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I wouldn'y worry to much about any trends right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 We don't want this south. We want it further north and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfssnowdepth144.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I wouldn'y worry to much about any trends right now. Why? Every system that has been shown a week out on the models has a worked out so well this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 There's a really strong block to the north in Quebec...the worry is definitely still too far south. That also could mean a rain solution though as it bombs way too far south and carries all the marine air inland. The high is in a pretty nice spot, so I think the latter type solution would have to be extreme...but just keep it in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Nice rain storm depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Be careful what you wish for too. The ULL sucks in a ton of warmer air...a reason why this thing has so much precip so far north. You almost want it to phase a bit later and have it tuck NW towards the BM or a place like that and let dynamics go bonkers here. Exactly, or as for my comments earlier, this could tum into a 2/25/10 storm. If it phases earlier and tucks NW too soon, the ULL is going to bring the warm air streaming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Nice rain storm depicted. For southern CT,RI, and se mass I agree. Too much marine influence with that evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Someone is going to get 2 feet from this, where, that will shift about 50 times until it comes. There has been a pretty good NW and E trend this winter, I bet it continues. One thing is for certain, this thing is a real monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfssnowdepth144.gif Quite the gradient with that, within 30 miles or so down here it goes from about 3" to 10". Someone is going to be very happy with this storm, and someone is going to get screwed, although who will get what is still totally up in the air. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 For southern CT,RI, and se mass I agree. Too much marine influence with that evolution. I was joking, yea once it wraps sure but thats a bomb to start. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Yeah if you phase this even earlier than shown and have it go crazy, we end up with rain in NYC/BOS and a snowbomb in DC...almost like a 2/26/10 but further SW. It has that kind of feel. Occlusion and then wrapped up WAA off the Atlantic. It could easily be a heavy snow for western interior mid-Atlantic and snow to rain for SNE/NYC kind of deal. I'd like to see more northern stream impact and slightly lower heights. I think it could be a very high QPF event... deep wet snow for elevated interior somewhere from WV to NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 12z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 That GGEM map is better looking for the CP of SNE with better H5 height falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I do like that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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