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Early March threats - Mar 1st-8th Period


free_man

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I had this thought last night as I was going to bed last night...major storm for all of VA with no threat to SNE in March? Tough to buy.

 

That said that's just one run of the Euro at 150 hours out...no need to get too excited just yet...but certainly something to watch the next couple days. Would be nice to end this winter with a decent event that gets me over 50". Of course the question IMBY this time of year if this thing comes together won't be whether we taint...it's for how long?

 

 

It does happen...though rare. March '62 (which was an analog) and March 1980 (also another analog)...however a majority of the analogs on the list coming into this period were big storms up here like Mar '01, Mar '05, Mar '60, Mar '58, etc.

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Looks beautiful, but my concern is that it ends up too far NW and down here ends up as a cold rain. EURO looked to be all snow or close down here, but it's borderline with such a stale airmass to work with, it's going to have to make it's own cold to be a big hit for down here. The potential is still there, and like I said a few days earlier, if we see another significant event down here, I think this is it.

-skisheep

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Looks beautiful, but my concern is that it ends up too far NW and down here ends up as a cold rain. EURO looked to be all snow or close down here, but it's borderline with such a stale airmass to work with, it's going to have to make it's own cold to be a big hit for down here. The potential is still there, and like I said a few days earlier, if we see another significant event down here, I think this is it.

-skisheep

Can't completely rule out a further shift NW. Gut was also guarding me away from a VA hit. The last time areas like NC/VC down to the coastal plain had a major snow storm in March was 33 years ago, 1980. Also, 1980 had a 1052mb high diving down from the Plains. A very different evolution is expected this time around.

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Can't completely rule out a further shift NW. Gut was also guarding me away from a VA hit. The last time areas like NC/VC down to the coastal plain had a major snow storm in March was 33 years ago, 1980. Also, 1980 had a 1052mb high diving down from the Plains. A very different evolution is expected this time around.

The lack of any fresh cold air has me concerned.  Of course if it bombs just offshore, it won't matter, but would be more comfortable with something other than a stale modified airmass....

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