CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Euro is 1-2 feet ..hopefully its ensembles offer support Ensembles are well east, but did come NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Jan 2005 storm..Euro buried VA 8-10 runs in a row..and missed us..then if shifted north and he didn't buy it..you know the rest There is blocking, but the whole ULL was a little north this run. 6 days out so we all know the drill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Ensembles are well east, but did come NW. Then they must give us snow..becasue at 12 z they had snow into NNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It actually flips all of us over to a little -ra/dz since it floods us with warmer air at 850, but not before a paste job, esp inland. Bl looked pretty cold as modeled albeit 6 dqys out for the brunt of the qpf before everyone flips at the end. Signs are growing for a big time event to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Long range Euro looks kind of ugly after the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Retrograding low on the ECMWF still looks nice for Maine and the upslope regions of NH/VT. Days and days of cyclonic moisture and mountain snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Long range Euro looks kind of ugly after the storm Mid March but ensembles look decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Bl looked pretty cold as modeled albeit 6 dqys out for the brunt of the qpf before everyone flips at the end. Signs are growing for a big time event to me. Yeah there is a pocket of cold air that moves in from the ne which is good. It becomes a classic wrapped up spring cutoff but another 50 miles NW and it's a condo collapser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Kevin cutter potential around the 10th. It gets closer afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Kevin cutter potential around the 10th. It gets closer afterwards. That's a rough period of the season to waste time with a cutter, especially further south and lower elevations. Every 5 days in March seems to make a big difference in the ability to snow, especially if the next threat doesn't show up till mid-March or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 That's a rough period of the season to waste time with a cutter, especially further south and lower elevations. Every 5 days in March seems to make a big difference in the ability to snow, especially if the next threat doesn't show up till mid-March or later. I'm guessing this is our final major threat but then again April fools can walk through the door..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 That's a rough period of the season to waste time with a cutter, especially further south and lower elevations. Every 5 days in March seems to make a big difference in the ability to snow, especially if the next threat doesn't show up till mid-March or later. Eh, a cutter in January is way worse IMHO. In March winter is already checking out so no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I'd love a KU before MORCH! Give me 15" then 70s.... That would be a dream come true lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Eh, a cutter in January is way worse IMHO. In March winter is already checking out so no big deal. Exactly! Even if we average -5 in march the pack will melt day by day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 You also don't want this storm to blow its load and then hit us while occluding. It ruins the CCB and eventually brings in milder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I'd love a KU before MORCH! Give me 15" then 70s.... That would be a dream come true lol We are completely on the same page. A big event gets the snow pack up past 2feet (have 12-18 here now), then it melts, gets warm and the peas and greens go into the freshly tilled garden. The days of laying in the hammock on the screened porch are nearing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 What a storm on the Euro/GFS! That would be super exciting... almost a colder Dec '92 storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 What a storm on the Euro/GFS! That would be super exciting... almost a colder Dec '92 storm lol Certainly would generate powerful winds along the coast for an extended period of time. I believe we are in between the full and new moon at that time, but a fetch like that would still generate serious coastal flooding. The airmass overall is quite stale so we are going to need a bombing low to generate its own cold air. Long ways away but definitely intriguing signs on the guidance . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 DT in denial that the usual north trend has begun. Let's hope there's some real cold air for this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Def mor einteresting on the 00z guidance....Euro ensembles show more cutter potential for 3/11 but then they actually got a lot colder for afterward....kind of the reload pattern that Scooter and I talked about yesterday, so I don't think we'd be done after 3/7 in that scenario. Euro ensembles came way north with the 3/7 threat but still too far SE for us except for a scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 poor mid-atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 poor mid-atlantic Not a surprise. These things always tend to meander off the Delmarva in the weenie range (D8-D10) then start coming north. DT will hold on hope for 3 or 4 more runs that this is a VA/NC threat and then finally give up on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 What a storm on the Euro/GFS! That would be super exciting... almost a colder Dec '92 storm lol Nice to have you amped up already! Bombs away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Nice to have you amped up already! Bombs away It's an intense storm. Nasty cut-off. Will be a slow mover. Just need to figure out where it goes... not locking anything but we'll see it definitely has some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It's an intense storm. Nasty cut-off. Will be a slow mover. Just need to figure out where it goes... not locking anything but we'll see it definitely has some potential. If the whole system gets flipped north with better spacing, it would probably be another HECS...at least for the interior, but even the coast would probably do well too. Lot of time though to fgure it out. I can still easily see this missing us SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 If the whole system gets flipped north with better spacing, it would probably be another HECS...at least for the interior, but even the coast would probably do well too. Lot of time though to fgure it out. I can still easily see this missing us SE. Yeah it has the look of a HECS but you're right it could just as easily totally whiff. High stakes here. Would love a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It's an intense storm. Nasty cut-off. Will be a slow mover. Just need to figure out where it goes... not locking anything but we'll see it definitely has some potential.Colder than Dec92? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Colder than Dec92? Well by virtue of the time of year it will be tough to be as mild as Dec 92 if the track was similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 poor mid-atlantic Some of the mid atlantic would do ok...Richmond, forget about it. Sure there's storms like 3/62, but those are rare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 very, very rarely it seems that the M/A receives a major snow and we do not. Esp. in March? Maybe that's wrong. I'm still confident in this pattern , anyway. I had this thought last night as I was going to bed last night...major storm for all of VA with no threat to SNE in March? Tough to buy. That said that's just one run of the Euro at 150 hours out...no need to get too excited just yet...but certainly something to watch the next couple days. Would be nice to end this winter with a decent event that gets me over 50". Of course the question IMBY this time of year if this thing comes together won't be whether we taint...it's for how long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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