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Early March threats - Mar 1st-8th Period


free_man

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Well 3k is different. 

 

My father is at 2000 feet up on a ridge top near Mount Snow. I know you're talking about NNE, but they always get about a third more than we do here in Brattleboro. If we get a foot, they get a foot and a half. 

 

BTW, as an aside, up until last night NWS was calling for 6 to 12 inches here in Brattleboro. We barely got an inch. What a dud. I hope March comes through, as it often does.

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I really enjoyed this winter 55 and counting and had lots more fun than last. Got to go ice fishing too. Very happy, how much fun was that blizzard. DEC 29 was very special and skiing has been super and getting better.

Snow totals were good, but all of the rain just took much of the joy out of outdoor snow entertainment for me.  One or two weekends of snow shoeing and that was about it. 

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I am pretty much packing it in, climo and the fact that everything seems to disappear within a few days of something worth watching showing up. I'm about at climo for the season, blizzard was awesome, but all that considered, 80% of my snowfall came from two events. One the bilzz and the other was in November that was gone in a day and a half.

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I think it's just more the realization that the majority of the time this winter it's useless beyond about 72 hours to care much. There will be a threat around that time for sure, but it could be anything from a flizzard to blizzard or Rainer and anyone that says they know different is FOS.

 

Im sure you're right.. But it does a body good to see something besides CMC and Navgem come north in this pattern.   What?  We now have a camp of 3?  Hmmmmmm.... Not to say theyre in the same camp in any way other than a more northward depiction.  But it beats the relentless suppression under the block we've been seeing, with a firm nod to the extended time frame we're looking at.

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dt thinks he is the best out there . well there are others that are good been around for long time jb  drag some others ones from sne area . He will ban you if you disagree with his forecast on his facebook site . channel 30 are good too

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Weird HPC discussion overnight.  They say energetic vortices astride 40N but then show the low tracking straight out to see  off of VA.  Then they say, last snow of the year east of the Mississippi for lower elevations.  That would include much of SNE and chunks of CNE.  Really?  And the weeklies say -NAO?  I'm confused.

 

 

A BLOCKING PATTERN AT HIGH LATITUDES WILL ALLOW A SERIES OFENERGETIC VORTICES TO SPIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA THISPERIOD ASTRIDE 40N. TWO PORTIONS OF THE NATION SHOULD RECEIVE THEBRUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES: THE CENTRALPACIFIC COAST AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST. THE INTERPLAYBETWEEN THE BLOCKED NORTHERN STREAM AND THE WESTERLIES ARE LEADINGTHE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS THE USUAL MERRY CHASE. STUCK WITH THERELIABLE EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE,WHICH HAPPENS TO AFFORD A MIDDLE GROUND FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOWAFFECTING THE EAST COAST DAYS 5 AND 6. COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OFTHIS WAVE COULD SPELL THE LAST ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO LOWERELEVATIONS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE WESTERN WAVE SHOULDPULL ENOUGH PACIFIC MOISTURE INLAND TO SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW ALLTHE WAY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE--A WELCOME REPLENISHMENT FOR THEUPCOMING SUMMER DRYNESS.
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Well surprise, surprise. The euro is a lot slower bringing that potent s/w out of the NW than the GFS so we get a bit more spacing and ridging ahead of it. There's probably more room to come north on that op prog, but at d6 it's too far to overly worry about. Nice overnight runs though.

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