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Early March threats - Mar 1st-8th Period


free_man

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3 replies concerning the thread title so I changed it to "early March".

 

;)

 

Lol - ...it's a good thread as there's certainly something hinted in that time frame - if only a hint for the time being.  The teleconnector support is still there... really until about the 10th of the month we are good to go.   

 

Then, depending on what the EPO does may very well dictate if we wrap things up by "the ides of March"   :) or not protract the end of winter -

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NCEP's view on this -

"...UPSTREAM...A DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL

DROP SEWD THROUGH THE WRN US THU/D3. DIGGING ENERGY WILL FEED MORE

SHARPLY INTO THE S-CENTRAL US BY FRI TO THE LEE OF A RAPIDLY

AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL E-CENTRAL PACIFIC TROUGH AND WRN US

RIDGE COUPLET DEVELOPING UPSTREAM. THIS LEADS TO QUITE AN

AMPLIFIED WRN US RIDGE AND COLD ERN US TROUGH... POSITIVE PNA

PATTERN... BY SAT/D5 JUST AS HEIGHT RISES FEED WESTWARD FROM

GREENLAND INTO ERN CANADA AT HIGHER LATITUDES. THIS MAY LEAD TO

ERN US COASTAL LOW POTENTIAL SAT-MON AND HPC MANUAL PROGS SHOW

MODERATE DEVELOPMENT BUT THE PATTERN FAVORS OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT.

500MB STANDARDIZED HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FCST TO DROP TO -3.5 OR SO

CENTERED OVER FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SFC TEMPS 10-15 DEG F

BELOW NORMAL...."

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Was there a strong -epo coupled with a strong -nao for the 4/7/82 nor'easter? Because I can't see on the psu narr data up to Greenland and Alaska. Just wanted to know if the pattern in that event is a good analog for the first week of March.

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?  I was speaking more for the BOS/TOL area.   Surely the interior and esp. GC will do well,  as we often always do...even in a less than decent pattern.    I don't hyperfocus on mby,  within the perspective of posts.

3 phails in one post?

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Mar 6-7 looks like a decent setup on the Euro. Don't worry about the Mar 4th event, that is likely a fish storm.

 

I mentioned yesterday in the pattern thread that the ensembles hinted at something Mar 6-7...its showing up at D8-9 on the OP Euro today. Its a really cold system too.

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Mar 6-7 looks like a decent setup on the Euro. Don't worry about the Mar 4th event, that is likely a fish storm.

 

I mentioned yesterday in the pattern thread that the ensembles hinted at something Mar 6-7...its showing up at D8-9 on the OP Euro today. Its a really cold system too.

 

Agreed...the Euro likes a piece of the ULL from this week to split over Southeast Canada and then phase with the vort that drops underneath it from the Pac NW. Has some very interesting possibilities.

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