WilkesboroDude Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Will go ahead and post my thoughts. 0z it too late to throw out my map. Purple: Warning criteria ice...some sleet/snow accumulations possible but within advisory range. Up to two inches of snow/sleet. .2 to .4 ice or greater. Damaging ice possible along the immediate NC/VA border. Red: Warning criteria ice...some sleet accumulations possible but within advisory range.....up to one inch of sleet/snow .25 ice. Orange: Advisory criteria ice....some minor sleet/snow accumulations but not within advisory range. Dusting to half inch snow/sleet. glaze to .1 ice. Pink: Mixing...mixing to disturb totals to not qualify for anything more than a freezing rain advisory. Light glaze possible. Green: Rain possibly some sleet initially to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Winston-Salem Forsyth County Schools Closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Winston-Salem Forsyth County Schools Closed Yeah, I just saw that. WTF??????? Are they just burning up unused school snow makeup days or what? If so, they better hope nothing happens in March... Orange County Schools are on a three-hour delay, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Clear skies did the trick down east. Clouds will roll in soon but northern coastal plain in 30s already. Plus the HP is doing a nosing configuration and you can see surface wind direction coming out of VA and northeastern NC. The air temps and DP's in this area will creep there way over the triad and up against the apps In Damming fashion tonight. This won't get us to freezing but should open the door to wet bulb the first few hours precip starts. Minor event but its better than sitting here looking off 10 days out for something to chase. Maybe the wife and kids can sleep Ina couple hours tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Obviously the NAM is not handling this very well, look at the simulated radar for 7pm from the 18z NAM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Clear skies did the trick down east. Clouds will roll in soon but northern coastal plain in 30s already. Plus the HP is doing a nosing configuration and you can see surface wind direction coming out of VA and northeastern NC. The air temps and DP's in this area will creep there way over the triad and up against the apps In Damming fashion tonight. This won't get us to freezing but should open the door to wet bulb the first few hours precip starts. Minor event but its better than sitting here looking off 10 days out for something to chase. Maybe the wife and kids can sleep Ina couple hours tomorrow. I'll be surprised if we get anything other than a cold rain. Cloud cover we had move in today are gonna make low temps bust on the higher side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 This is the RAP sim radar for 8pm....it's not anywhere close to how juicy things are currently, hopefully it translates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Looking at radar and extrapolating it, we might have radar returns here in the Piedmont by midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The radar is juicy. 2 problems are it's moving in faster than thought and the temps are not crashing as much as were forcasted. Not a good combination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 RAP and NAM don't even look close to the current radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Looking at radar and extrapolating it, we might have radar returns here in the Piedmont by midnight.Yes, close to the GFS Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I'll be surprised if we get anything other than a cold rain. Cloud cover we had move in today are gonna make low temps bust on the higher side. No doubt every degree we could have knocked off would help. Looks like we are gonna have to root for some top down cooling before moisture dries up in the dendrite growth area tonight. Getting snow nd or sleet to reach the surface is the key, then it's a question of rates being heavy enough for it to accumulate. If we did get any freezing rain after 5 a.m. It would be self limiting and very brief since freezing rain lets off latent heat. The good news is no one is gonna be disappointed in this minor event if it bust. I haven't been expecting much, just following along for kicks. Late next week into the following is another story, best chance pattern wise we've had to cash in , in over 2 years even giving the fact is almost March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Smooth sailing on I-40 from Hickory to Durham currently. I drove in tonight for a meeting tomorrow morning. I didn't want to chance the potentially bad conditions on the roads. I'm going to be upset if we get a decent little event back home and I had to miss it because of work. Oh well. I asked my wife to take pictures if we get anything decent at the house, and she just stared at me before saying, "I'm not running in and out the door after dark looking up at the sky and the ground when it's cold outside!" Needless to say, you can figure out my usual behavior during these types of events! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 This was Blacksburg at 4pm:For precipitation amounts...stuck with the more conservative European model (ecmwf) and earlier GFS model estimates. 12z GFS indicated a surge of heavier precipitation entering the North Carolina mountains and the mountain Empire by around midnight...however feel that is overdone.Here is the current radar...guess we will find out 4 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 38.0f / 28.7f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 49. This is a non starter. Dont know who wsfcs "consulted" with on their forecast, but my kid aint making this one up over spring break. No way we wetbulb down to 32. And no way anything sticks with light precip and marginal temps. My kids were sunbathing on the driveway this afternoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 NWS Greenville was considering Winter Storm Warnings as of about 1 hour ago...gut feeling is that they pull the trigger tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 Temp is 40 and dewpoint is 26 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Temp is 43 here dewpoint 17.. wetbulb of 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Northern Mtn people looking good: AS OF 645 PM...THE 18Z MODELS HAVE ALL COME IN WETTER ON THE QPF OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PROFILES ALSO APPEAR A BIT MORE LOCKED INTO THE SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN RANGE ACROSS THE NRN TIER FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI. THE SREF MEAN PRECIP AND WINTRY PRECIP ACCUM VALUES HAVE TRENDED UP AS WELL THROUGH THE DAY. WILL TAKE A QUICK LOOK AT THE 21Z SREF PLUMES AND LATEST INCOMING NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SHORTLY...BUT A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN COULD WELL BE NEEDED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NRN NC MTNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I must have really offended the winter weather gods at some point!.....rain has started & we are @ 49.6° only 34% humidity & a 22.1° DP. Might be able to wet bulb down to 39° or so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 49. This is a non starter. Dont know who wsfcs "consulted" with on their forecast, but my kid aint making this one up over spring break. No way we wetbulb down to 32. And no way anything sticks with light precip and marginal temps. My kids were sunbathing on the driveway this afternoon! GSO is down to 45/17. Kernersville must be in an oven. Still, the wet bulb is still only 35.2F, so we have a ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I'm traveling from Raleigh back to the house in Cullowhee and going through the leading rain band in Asheville, temp dropped 9 degrees from 50 to 41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 pouring sleet now temp 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The wetbulb may be helped by the CAD high pressure (at least temporarly) feeding dry air into our region as precip starts. This will allow for a lower wetbulb than would be calculated with no new air source feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 39 coming through Clyde. I 40 hwy 74 junction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Down to 43 here, 4 degree temp drop in the last 30 or so minutes as precip. is starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 WINTER STORM WARNINGS FIRED NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NWS GREENVILLE VIEWING AREA * Locations... Avery... Mitchell... and Yancey counties... as well asmountain portions of Caldwell... Burke... and McDowell counties inthe northern mountains of North Carolina. * Accumulations... snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 2inches... topped by one tenth to one quarter inch of ice fromfreezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Sleet being reported in Cruso. Haywood Co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I know we're in nowcast, but (for what it's worth) The 0z NAM came in wetter. Still gives a lot of love to the mountains but now shows ~.25 qpf through northern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.