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Wintry mix event 2/21 - 2/22


Brick Tamland

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I think you are right. I consider Blacksburg the conservative Winter Weather Expert...in comparison to Raleigh/Greenville. 

 

RAH always has been conservative in the past, IMO.  I remember they didn't issue any sort of Watch/Warning/Advisory until the wee hours of the morning with the Christmas/Boxing Day Storm, for example, and we ended up with 6".  That's why I am kind of surprised.

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RAH always has been conservative in the past, IMO.  I remember they didn't issue any sort of Watch/Warning/Advisory until the wee hours of the morning with the Christmas/Boxing Day Storm, for example, and we ended up with 6".  That's why I am kind of surprised.

 

But they throw out winter weather advisories out left and right for black ice!  :axe:

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53 and a full cloud deck. I say fail for the triad. We will be lucky to see 35 unless the precip is significantly heavier than projected on any model I have seen. Light showers wont cut it for ZR at the surface.

 

But this was predicted? Mild day with increasing cloud cover. Winston Salem has a dew-point of 7 degrees above zero right now.

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Guys the temps are only going to reach critical temps via wet bulbing, irregardless of overnight cloud cover

 

Indeed. Too much worrying. Nobody is forecasting freezing rain at 37-42 either. It may start out as sleet or snow...cause temps to drop even more...then cause freezing rain 30-32 for the morning commute. 

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Guys the temps are only going to reach critical temps via wet bulbing, irregardless of overnight cloud cover

 

Cloudy 50/17 I understand what you're saying, but if precip is light temps want cool to what they could if it's heavier. That said if we start out at 40 instead of 50 when clouds move in I think you would have a much better chance with light precip to get to 32? It's got to make a difference you can't much radiational cooling with cloudy skies!

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Piedmont has got ripped off several times before (last Tuesday to be one weaker example) of just by the fact precip hits late morning to lunch time. Better to come in early...which yea does cause clouds to come in early.

 

Take the above or take cold rain coming in at lunch time and beyond. Its either full radiational cooling or low dew-points. Rarely do we get both. It's low dew-points this time guys.

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 That said if we start out at 40 instead of 50 when clouds move in I think you would have a much better chance with light precip to get to 32? 

 

Good thing is even with cloud cover we are several hours away from the precipitation reaching the ground. Temps will fall some more regardless. 

 

- Blacksburg has Mount Airy above freezing through 3am...and down to 31 by 6am with precip.

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Do not want to make a MBY post, but is it possible for the cold air to damn down into the Charlotte/Upstate SC area as well, or are we only looking at a mountains/foothills/northern NC event? I assume not since it has yet to even be mentioned. We've got a DP of 13, with a predicted low of 33. I would assume a minor event would at least be possible, but I would like to hear more seasoned thoughts!

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Do not want to make a MBY post, but is it possible for the cold air to damn down into the Charlotte/Upstate SC area as well, or are we only looking at a mountains/foothills/northern NC event? I assume not since it has yet to even be mentioned. We've got a DP of 13, with a predicted low of 33. I would assume a minor event would at least be possible, but I would like to hear more seasoned thoughts!

 

Likely not seeing how this goes to cold rain by lunchtime over the Virginia border. Being further south would cause the transition if any to happen very quick down that way. Maybe an onset threat of sleet to cold rain initially. 

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I have not released my map yet because of the 18z GFS tbh. I was expecting it to not be as severe in terms of winter weather. 

 

No matter what the 0z GFS shows, I will post it tonight. I have a feeling if it comes in the same or better some are going to be caught off guard...esp. mountains/foothills/northern Piedmont.

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GFS bkit soundings look like a bit of sleet with a coating of ice on top early mornign hours. Probably t- 1/2 in of sleet in some areas with a .1 glaze of ice. Was thinking a few days ago this would trend colder, but i was hoping more so than it did. Either way, will be another minor nuisance event.

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