Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I know WRAL said it wasn't going to do much. I don't remember WRAL specifically, but I do remember that event trending colder, wetter, and more ominous as it got closer. It wasn't a last second surprise like Jan. 2000. Anyway, I wonder if RAH is going to release an afternoon discussion today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Well, the 18z NAM looks to be colder than the 12z run. However, the precip field is worlds apart from the 12z GFS. It's pretty laughable at the differences considering this is less than 24 hours out that we are talking about. In fact, if you compare the 6hr NAM to the 12hr GFS the models are keying on different areas with the heaviest precip. The Nam put more precip into Illinois and Western Tennesse, while the GFS has max precip over Louisiana and Alabama. By looking at the radar, I think the NAM looks to verify better although it does seem a little slow. NCEP did acknowledge that NAM initiated way on the NW side of guidance tho this afternoon and it was "highly" discounted at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yeah, models are all over the place and we're 12 hours away from things getting started. The potential is there, so we'll have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Someone posted this in the original thread. SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO GREATLAKES...PRELIM PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWFTHE 12Z NAM QUICKLY GETS TO BE ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF MODELSPREAD WITH TRACKING THE LOW THROUGH MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ANDINTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. ALSO...THE NAM ADJUSTEDDEEPER WITH THE CYCLONE COMPARED TO ITS 00Z RUN AND IS NOW ASTRONG OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 36 HOURS. THE12Z GFS CAME IN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z RUN AND COMPARES WELLWITH THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE 00Z ECMWF. EARLY IN THE FORECASTPERIOD...THE 00Z UKMET/CMC BOTH APPEAR TO BE A BIT TOO SUPPRESSEDWITH THE CYCLONE...SO THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF ARE THE RECOMMENDEDMODEL CHOICES FOR THIS FEATURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GSP expanding advisories to include I-40 cooridor, Polk and Rutherford counties along US 74 and the French Broad Valley counties. Discussion stated that it could be mainly sleet roughly I-40 and north with frz rain at the end. Mainly frz rain for Asheville, Hendersonville, and some frz in Forest City...they're really forecasting on the high side of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Matthew East just said on facebook that WWA will be issued for the Triangle and Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Someone posted this in the original thread. SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES... PRELIM PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF THE 12Z NAM QUICKLY GETS TO BE ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF MODEL SPREAD WITH TRACKING THE LOW THROUGH MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. ALSO...THE NAM ADJUSTED DEEPER WITH THE CYCLONE COMPARED TO ITS 00Z RUN AND IS NOW A STRONG OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 36 HOURS. THE 12Z GFS CAME IN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z RUN AND COMPARES WELL WITH THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE 00Z ECMWF. EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE 00Z UKMET/CMC BOTH APPEAR TO BE A BIT TOO SUPPRESSED WITH THE CYCLONE...SO THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF ARE THE RECOMMENDED MODEL CHOICES FOR THIS FEATURE. Yeah, I did, but it's so different, we are within 12-18 hours, it can't be that wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yeah, I did, but it's so different, we are within 12-18 hours, it can't be that wrong. Hehe Nam has been like the red headed stepchild this year showing some ridiculous extreme solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yeah, I did, but it's so different, we are within 12-18 hours, it can't be that wrong. I think the fact they are so different means it really needs to be watched. Doesn't seem like anything is a sure bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 15z SREF Alot of the qpf up to hr 27 is frozen per sref espeacilly in Triad NW NC so you can see the potential if this verefied for border counties,northern foothills and northern mtns/eastern escarpment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 15z SREF [img=http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/sref/15zsrefptype021.gif] Alot of the qpf up to hr 27 is frozen per sref espeacilly in Triad NW NC so you can see the potential if this verefied for border counties,northern foothills and northern mtns/eastern escarpment. [img=http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/sref/15zsrefp24_SE027.gif] Good post and this is what I was alluding to back on the first page when looking at the SREF seemed pretty juicy on 15z run so we have the Nam and SREF agreeing with one another let's see if the GFS jumps on board. Boy my ride is going to be interesting tomorrow thru fancy gap on 77 heading down the mountain into NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 What happened to the other thread LOL? Guess it turned evil when I was in college. Things are looking interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I'm a bit skeptical about putting too much weight into a low-resolution global model like the GFS, but if the 12z GFS verified, things would get pretty ugly around here. That appears to show a major winter storm tomorrow morning. The SREF looks good, too, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Morehead City just put out an advisory for their furthest inland counties. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC324 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING....A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT ONTOP OF TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAINWILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE FRIDAY.PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL RAIN BY MID-MORNING AND CONTINUETHROUGH THE DAY.NCZ029-044-079-090-091-221100-/O.NEW.KMHX.WW.Y.0004.130222T0900Z-130222T1400Z/MARTIN-PITT-GREENE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLIAMSTON...ROBERSONVILLE...GREENVILLE...SNOW HILL...HOOKERTON...WALLACE...WARSAW...ROSE HILL...KENANSVILLE...BEULAVILLE...MAGNOLIA...KINSTON324 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM ESTFRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUEDA WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECTFROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...A VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...AROUND A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.* TIMING...A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE THROUGH MID-MORNING FRIDAY.* IMPACTS...SLICK SPOTS COULD MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.* WINDS...NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.* WIND CHILL...IN THE MID 20S.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT A MIXTURE OF RAIN ANDFREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATESTUPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-078. Newly issued from RAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avianman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 341 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013 ...ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING... .AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. ENOUGH COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS...ALONG WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW...THEN CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN NEAR DAYBREAK FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL END AS RAIN IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. NCZ035>037-056-057-502-504-506-220445- /O.EXB.KGSP.WW.Y.0013.130222T0400Z-130222T1700Z/ ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GREATER CALDWELL- GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY... SALISBURY 341 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. * HAZARDS...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. * TIMING...RAIN WILL BEGIN BY LATE EVENING...CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN NEAR DAYBREAK...THEN BACK TO RAIN BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...LIGHT SLEET ACCUMULATION...ALONG WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. * IMPACTS...SLEET WILL CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND SIDEWALKS OVERNIGHT. ICE ACCUMULATING ON TOP OF THE SLEET AND SNOW MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee_Sidedryslot:-( Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Freezeing rain adv just post furture south into the so. foothills. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC341 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013...ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OFTHE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING....AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATE TONIGHTAND TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THESOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. ENOUGH COLD AIRIS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS AWINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...ASWELL AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ANDCENTRAL MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THENORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERNFOOTHILLS...ALONG WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL ANDSOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS A MIX OFSLEET AND SNOW...THEN CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN NEAR DAYBREAKFRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL END AS RAIN IN MOST AREAS FRIDAYMORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON.NCZ508-510-220445-/O.EXB.KGSP.ZR.Y.0002.130222T0400Z-130222T1700Z/GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-341 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TONOON EST FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUEDA FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THISEVENING TO NOON EST FRIDAY.* LOCATIONS...THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF POLK AND RUTHERFORD COUNTIES.* HAZARDS...LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION.* TIMING...RAIN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN CHANGING BACK TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY MORNING.* ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE OF ICE.* IMPACTS...SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS LEADING INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 WXII posted on FB that a "Winter Storm is Approaching!". Since when did this become a "storm"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 WXII posted on FB that a "Winter Storm is Approaching!". Since when did this become a "storm"? WXII/NBC/WeatherChannel/...might even get a name probably already has one. I think they were calling it Winter Storm Q. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Q? lol What happened to A-P? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Wow, the NWS is talking about up to an inch of snow/sleet in the Triad? Bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 You know we run the risk of a very marginal event when Blacksburg is last to pull the trigger. EDIT - Trigger pulled at 4:11PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Winter Weather Advisory Statement as of 4:11 PM EST on February 21, 2013 ... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday... The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain and sleet... which is in effect from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday. * Locations... Southside Virginia into the Piedmont of North Carolina. * Hazard types... main hazard will be freezing rain... with lesser concern for sleet. * Accumulations... sleet accumulation of less than an inch with a trace to as much as a tenth of an inch of freezing rain. * Timing... developing after midnight and continuing into Friday morning. Expected to impact to the Friday morning commute. * Impacts... untreated roads will become icy and hazardous for travel. * Winds... east around 5 to 10 mph. * Temperatures... in the lower 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Winter Weather Advisory Statement as of 4:11 PM EST on February 21, 2013 ... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday... The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain and sleet... which is in effect from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday. * Locations... Southside Virginia into the Piedmont of North Carolina. * Hazard types... main hazard will be freezing rain... with lesser concern for sleet. * Accumulations... sleet accumulation of less than an inch with a trace to as much as a tenth of an inch of freezing rain. * Timing... developing after midnight and continuing into Friday morning. Expected to impact to the Friday morning commute. * Impacts... untreated roads will become icy and hazardous for travel. * Winds... east around 5 to 10 mph. * Temperatures... in the lower 30s. T-0.10" of ZR? Weaksauce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Gosh latest GFS is cold as heck with that cad signature very strong dipping well down into western nc and heavy returns of .25 showing up. Tomorrow should be interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GFS holds serve with regards to precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 clouds rolling in already and 55 degrees not good! that will put a stop to temps dropping fast. TONIGHT...A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLEET THIS EVENING...THEN SLEETAND FREEZING RAIN WITH RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ICEACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT ANDVARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT..FRIDAY...RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THE MORNING...THENRAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUNDA TRACE. MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT ANDVARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. Just a trace!!! no big deal... it seems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GFS holds serve with regards to precip... Yes, and the snowfall map has expanded for a good portion of NC. Again, maybe this is more sleet than snow, but that 850 line is pretty far south per the 18Z GFS and the precip is quite high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yes, and the snowfall map has expanded for a good portion of NC. Again, maybe this is more sleet than snow, but that 850 line is pretty far south per the 18Z GFS and the precip is quite high. It is odd to look at that and see Boone with no mention of snow in the winter weather advisory, but we see it for Greensboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 It is odd to look at that and see Boone with no mention of snow in the winter weather advisory, but we see it for Greensboro. I think RAH is going a little overboard with the snow threat here in the Triad, to be honest. Maybe I'm wrong, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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