Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Try again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Alright, the Brick mojo, let's see how lucky you are. Hopefully the 12z GFS verifies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Could create some issues around here if the GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Brick!!!! Yeah! So, the models have trended colder and wetter (excluding the NAM) for the 12Zs, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderwolf Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 wrong month in title!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Sorry, I never started a thread before. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Sorry, I never started a thread before. Carry on. there's a first time for everything... I find it very interesting that the GFS is printing out some accumulating snow here along the escarpment late tonight before a changeover to sleet/frz rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Ya done good, Brick...let's see how it persists. If the cold digs just a bit more, our northern Sandhill folks may want to delay the morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 What the heck happened to the original thread?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Does anyone know how the EURO looked for this event? Did it trend colder and wetter like the GFS or go the other way like the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Does anyone know how the EURO looked for this event? Did it trend colder and wetter like the GFS or go the other way like the NAM? Hard to say off Allan site. Anyway 50/17 at GSO. Should be maxed out with warming for the day. Radiational cooling will be in full force atleast 6-9 pm tonight based on latest sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busick Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 New Thread??? Anyways the key tonight will be how soon the clouds roll in hopefully after 10:00pm for the Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Hard to say off Allan site. Anyway 50/17 at GSO. Should be maxed out with warming for the day. Radiational cooling will be in full force atleast 6-9 pm tonight based on latest sat that's the big key to this event, can we stay clear long enough to get some good radiational cooling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Does anyone know how the EURO looked for this event? Did it trend colder and wetter like the GFS or go the other way like the NAM? Wouldn't put too much emphasis on the Euro at this timeframe brother. RAP and SREF from here on out. Unfortunately don't have any info on the Euro tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Does anyone know how the EURO looked for this event? Did it trend colder and wetter like the GFS or go the other way like the NAM? Wetter than its 0z run. Had 0.1"+ into central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Wetter than its 0z run. Had 0.1"+ into central NC. Thanks Pack! I was curious and hoping someone had access to the 6hr maps could let us know what it showed. I know that we should be looking at the shorter range, higher resolution models now. The NAM run was just weird compared to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 From Raleigh NWS: .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 1245 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT EXTENDED STRETCHES OF ADVERSE AVIATION WEATHER THISPERIOD.VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD REIGN THROUGHABOUT 9-10 PM. AFTER 10 PM...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE WITHCEILINGS LOWERING INTO THE IFR/LOW END MVFR RANGE BY 4-6 AM WITHAREAS OF WINTRY PRECIP DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF KRDU/KINT/KGSOBETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM. EXPECT PRECIP TO START OUT AS SNOW/SLEETMIX TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY FREEZING RAIN MIXED AT TIMES WITH SLEETBY DAYBREAK. EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO GRADUALLY BECOME RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER 10 AM. EXPECTING A LIGHT ICE ACCRUAL (LESS THAN ATENTH OF AN INCH) ON MOST EXPOSED SURFACES WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHTSNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT...MOST LIKELY NEARKGSO/KINT. LOW CEILINGS AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITY WILL PERSISTTHROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 dang, the GFS is going to force me out of bed at 4 am just to see if it is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Ever since the ice storm in Dec 02 I have watched these ice events closely. That one wasn't supposed to do much and then I woke up with no power and a tree branch on the hood of my car because of ice. The amount of precip and timing could make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Has anyone commented on the 15z SREF? Just curious cause I noticed it has good damming and .25 of QPF overspreading SW Va and NC on the 21 hr map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 I know earlier Raleigh Wx said the GFS bufkit soundings show 0.42 inches of QPF at RDU by 7am, mostly as freezing rain/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Ever since the ice storm in Dec 02 I have watched these ice events closely. That one wasn't supposed to do much and then I woke up with no power and a tree branch on the hood of my car because of ice. The amount of precip and timing could make a big difference. If you went to bed thinking that wasn't going to do much, then you must not be very good at following weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 If you went to bed thinking that wasn't going to do much, then you must not be very good at following weather. I know WRAL said it wasn't going to do much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Summey Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 We've gotten much warmer today than anticipated so maybe we'll have trouble cooling overnight. I love wintry precip if it is snow/sleet but freezing rain is no fun. I also had auto damage in that 02 storm, and house damage and lost food, pets (fish) and a week without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lettucesnow Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 When do you think RAH will do their update? >>> They hinted at a WWA. They've got to be putting everything together right now, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 We've gotten much warmer today than anticipated so maybe we'll have trouble cooling overnight. I love wintry precip if it is snow/sleet but freezing rain is no fun. I also had auto damage in that 02 storm, and house damage and lost food, pets (fish) and a week without power. Yes it has gotten rather warm today! I'm currently 57/17 hope the clouds hold off until midnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 When do you think RAH will do their update? >>> They hinted at a WWA. They've got to be putting everything together right now, eh? I am sure they are baffled, the 12z and 18z runs of 12km NAM has no precip for central NC. Where the 12z GFS has 0.4" of all frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Nam continues to be juicy on 18z 18 hr frame with the CAD firmly entrenched. Nams ability to predict and portray damming setups is starting to really gear itself up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Well, the 18z NAM looks to be colder than the 12z run. However, the precip field is worlds apart from the 12z GFS. It's pretty laughable at the differences considering this is less than 24 hours out that we are talking about. In fact, if you compare the 6hr NAM to the 12hr GFS the models are keying on different areas with the heaviest precip. The Nam put more precip into Illinois and Western Tennesse, while the GFS has max precip over Louisiana and Alabama. By looking at the radar, I think the NAM looks to verify better although it does seem a little slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 When do you think RAH will do their update? >>> They hinted at a WWA. They've got to be putting everything together right now, eh? Last few storms, the WWA has been issued around 3:45pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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