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Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Looks like 8-12" all snow and a daytime event for the most part up here. Good stuff. SWFE like so I probably won't get 4" while Dendrite gets 12" again. Most likely this will be a storm with the sleet line washes out south of the pike and Will repeatedly posts about how he's holding off the sleet while Kevin is 33F rain. :)

 

You are only in your first winter up there and already developing a worrying complex about being beaten by points to your south, lol.  Climo will come through for you at some point.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

The GFS has certainly cooled from yesterday's torch down here but is still on the warmer side of  guidance.

 

One word of caution based on the GFS BUFKIT soundings is that the GFS is bone dry above 700mb with all the omega focused quite low. Even a sub-freezing sounding would have trouble producing snow like that. May wind up being some kind of icy mix? 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

The GFS has certainly cooled from yesterday's torch down here but is still on the warmer side of  guidance.

 

One word of caution based on the GFS BUFKIT soundings is that the GFS is bone dry above 700mb with all the omega focused quite low. Even a sub-freezing sounding would have trouble producing snow like that. May wind up being some kind of icy mix? 

 

Yeah on the 850-500 maps it's kind of dry too...weird, but perhaps makes sense because it's occluding. It does refire again over ern ma and up into CNE.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
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Yeah on the 850-500 maps it's kind of dry too...weird, but perhaps makes sense because it's occluding. It does refire again over ern ma and up into CNE.

 

It's just an odd look. Almost like all the QG forcing is from warm advection near 850mb and there's very little else going on. 

 

Something to keep in mind... just a minor little caution flag at this juncture.

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
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You are only in your first winter up there and already developing a worrying complex about being beaten by points to your south, lol.  Climo will come through for you at some point.

Today scarred me for life. 4.5" and 10 miles south, 10". 

 

FWIW 18z NAM looks sweet up here for a foot of snow. Probably concrete. SREF's were warm but I'm not worried about mixing here at all.

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ctsnowstorm628

ctsnowstorm628

Posted
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Today scarred me for life. 4.5" and 10 miles south, 10". 

 

FWIW 18z NAM looks sweet up here for a foot of snow. Probably concrete. SREF's were warm but I'm not worried about mixing here at all.

I think from Brian to you maybe over to Jeff has some potential with this one. 6-10" of paste? One thing that sucks about Plymouth (and LSC really) is that as you head into March, everything begins to get elevation dependent again as you'd expect. Kind of gross honestly haha. March 15-April 15 is the WORST.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

It's just an odd look. Almost like all the QG forcing is from warm advection near 850mb and there's very little else going on. 

 

Something to keep in mind... just a minor little caution flag at this juncture.

 

Good catch though... that's the stuff that gets overlooked when big accumulations start to get thrown around and it ends up as half of what was being talked about.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
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CNE/NNE winter :whistle:

 

But in all honesty, you guys deserve and have more use for it up there.  

 

I'll be happy with a couple inches on the front end.  

 

 

lol, Yeah, Coming on late i guess, Definitely have a need for it, My snowmobile is really lacking in the mileage category, Normal is 2,000 miles/yr, Only 200 so far

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I don't know what the model soundings look like - I suppose I could down load the bufkit numbers and look - but synopically the 18z GFS has real icing scenario look to it. 

 

First of all, with that polar high parked N and not modeled to move ... pinned in position by static confluence/-NAO N of Maine, there is no way the wind turns S, N of the LI Sound - just doesn't work that way.  Denser air under an inversion that is back built-supplied by high pressure wins 100% of the time - that's the physics of viscosity.  And is modeled correctly about half as often.  The question is, does the cold mute to a 33 drab, or a 31.5 while when the 850s go to +2 or +3C   

 

Should start as snow everywhere... Then it looks to me like over to sleet and freezing rain/rain S to sleet snow in ASH at warmest penetration - snow above that obviously.  Could be a 30 hour magnificent total somewhere in the Monads to White MT - real epic if these crawling 2 day delivery of easterlies into a polar dome deals pan out like they are modeled.  In fact that specific detail there has a wow factor of about 8 out of 10 for the time being. 

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