Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

[Sey-Mour Snow]

i'd hate to be forecasting this mess

Ya still no snow here but 100% freezing rain just slipped down my stairs driveway all ice

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Temps still ticking down at some local stations

[ORH_wxman]

00z Ukie torches the BL too...and the 03z RAP...all guidance recently has a completely torched BL by 12z here. So if the recent guidance is correct, I should be rain and about 37F at 12z.

 

 

The 12z Euro had it still ripping snow here at 18z.

 

 

 

You would think that this other short term guidance would start coming more in line with the Euro if the Euro was correct, but its not. Its amazing how fast all of this guidance torches the BL too...happens within 2-3 hours very quickly near 09z.

[N. OF PIKE]

Temps still ticking down at some local stations

lot of 32/29's in your area and just east

[N. OF PIKE]

00z Ukie torches the BL too...and the 03z RAP...all guidance recently has a completely torched BL by 12z here. So if the recent guidance is correct, I should be rain and about 37F at 12z.

 

 

The 12z Euro had it still ripping snow here at 18z.

 

 

 

You would think that this other short term guidance would start coming more in line with the Euro if the Euro was correct, but its not. Its amazing how fast all of this guidance torches the BL too...happens within 2-3 hours very quickly near 09z.

it's tuff bc the euro has been consistent........perhaps downstream obs will give a heads up sooner

[ORH_wxman]

it's tuff bc the euro has been consistent........perhaps downstream obs will give a heads up sooner

 

We'll need to see a lot of snow obs in CT around 1-4am for me to think the Euro will have shot at being correct...but we'll see the new run of the Euro by then anyway...Euro will probably cave at 00z tonight, because its hard for to imagine its correct right now.

[N. OF PIKE]

will how far does 0z guidane torch the BL up thru .....NH border.....WMA ....e slope?

[ORH_wxman]

will how far does 0z guidane torch the BL up thru .....NH border.....WMA ....e slope?

 

 

NH border...it has AFN rain by 12z...except the 00z GFS which is a bit colder than the NAM/RAP and it keeps N ORH county and GC snow through 12z.

 

 

RGEM also keeps those areas snow through 12z as well.

[OceanStWx]

If you subscribe to weathertap, you can get it. Or one of the other radar sites. I like weathertap because it has almost every feature and is cheap (like 7$ per month). Dual pol isn't available for free that I know of. Maybe it is somewhere though.

 

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

 

Click on NEXRAD sites and it has the level III dual pol data (lowest 4 scans).

[ChrisM]

I like how Pickles still spells "tough" as "tuff".  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

winter radar shows almost all of CT as rain now

[ORH_wxman]

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

 

Click on NEXRAD sites and it has the level III dual pol data (lowest 4 scans).

 

 

Oh nice...so others can see it too...thanks for the link. I forgot about the COD site. They are pretty good.

[ORH_wxman]

it will be interesting to watch...the RAP dynamically cools the mid-levels back below 0C pretty fast even after the 0C line makes it past the pike initially through 15z....but its the lower levels that torch....if the 925-950mb temps can stay stubborn, then it will be a snowbomb I think for many hours, but if not, then bust by the Euro.

[ORH_wxman]

The 12z Euro still had the 925mb 0C isotherm just below the pike at 18z (!!!)...nevermind 12z.

[OceanStWx]

Oh nice...so others can see it too...thanks for the link. I forgot about the COD site. They are pretty good.

 

 

They do great work, might be my favorite satellite website. The 1 km stuff is awesome for convective season (or otherwise I guess).

[Arnold214]

i'd hate to be forecasting this mess

It's going to be a big fight. I noticed even the 4 km nam in bufkit gave Portland, ME 8 inches of snow. Isothermal blue bomb for awhile.

[Tornado Girl]

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

 

Click on NEXRAD sites and it has the level III dual pol data (lowest 4 scans).

Thanks

[steve04074]

It's going to be a big fight. I noticed even the 4 km nam in bufkit gave Portland, ME 8 inches of snow. Isothermal blue bomb for awhile.

 

Hello from Scarborough (Pine Pt. Beach)!  Do you buy it?  I would so love for it to stay snow right here at the coast longer than most mets currently predicting.  But 31F at KPWM right now and 34F at my house, 100 feet from the Atlantic, so real worried about right here at the coast.

[Ice Warrior commander]

I am screwed here and so is the KORH second place feb snowfall.

 

Hoping that ULL will accumulate more than modeled to give a 1 to 3" ( more at KORH) the next two nights to contribute to the front end of the DVLPG Low on the coast.    But that is hoping now.

[Ice Warrior commander]

The 12z Euro still had the 925mb 0C isotherm just below the pike at 18z (!!!)...nevermind 12z.

Waiting like H*ll on the 00Z Euro.  

[ORH_wxman]

Waiting like H*ll on the 00Z Euro.  

 

 

I don't think its suspensful....its going to bust. It will cave at 00z....and if it doesn't, it will be wrong even closer to the event.

[joey2002]

I don't think its suspensful....its going to bust. It will cave at 00z....and if it doesn't, it will be wrong even closer to the event.

 

Last night it had warmed a bit at 00z... I was surprised to see the 12z run come in so chilly this afternoon. 

 

Euro seemed like it was the cold outlier though.

[Ice Warrior commander]

I don't think its suspensful....its going to bust. It will cave at 00z....and if it doesn't, it will be wrong even closer to the event.

Agreed.  I'm pinging some sleet here now. Maybe I can cool dynamically for a  couple hours of snow..  when heavier echoes arrive.

 

Nowcasting showing this to not be that suspenseful.. But will look over the 00Z ECM anyway.

 

Again pure sleet here now.  

[ORH_wxman]

Last night it had warmed a bit at 00z... I was surprised to see the 12z run come in so chilly this afternoon. 

 

Euro seemed like it was the cold outlier though.

 

 

It had some supportf rom the Ukie and GGEM today. IT was cold, but not all that much colder than those two. They both have warmed at 00z which is a sure sign the 00z Euro will torch uswhen it comes in.....if that is the case, its a pretty bad bust by the Euro getting schooled by the NAM of all models at 24-36 hours out....even further actually. NAM was the first warm model at 48+ hours. You will hardly ever see that happen, but its happening tonight...and it sucks that it happens to be that the NAM was the warmer one and not the other way around.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Uh oh. No Euro reports at 2AM?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Did the NAM score a coup?

[ineedsnow]

it was bad lol

Uh oh. No Euro reports at 2AM?

[Baroclinic Zone]

euro was taken out to the woodshed.

[Tropopause_Fold]

This happens with every storm. Relax Kevin, this is going as planned for you.

Who's not relaxed? All it's telling is is the Euro was right with the colder idea..beacause all forecasts had the shore as 110% rain

Lol

[CoastalWx]

Good reason we have guidance. Important not to fall in love with one solution Kevin. Even I thought the euro was right but once 00z came in figured it would fold. Sucks for you guys out there in the interior.