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Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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It seems to be warming 950mb so fast...way faster than any guidance. I don't know...seems like we toss.

 

RAP does the same thing by 12z...though thats getting far out into the RAP range and it has usually had a wamr bias that far out...but its still weird to see a few models do this and others be so much colder. I'll say I'd much rather have the Euro on my side than the NAM at least if it is one vs the other.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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00z GFS at 12z on the soundings for ORH has 850 temps of about -1C with a freezing level of 875mb and above 0C below that level. It completely torches the BL between 06z and 12z...we'll find out how accurate this is pretty soon. NAM did the same thing pretty much.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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The shadow is going to kill most of the snow in the Hudson and Champlain Valleys....Air will be dried out quite a bit.............Hey does anyone know of any decent Dual Pol sites?

 

 

If you subscribe to weathertap, you can get it. Or one of the other radar sites. I like weathertap because it has almost every feature and is cheap (like 7$ per month). Dual pol isn't available for free that I know of. Maybe it is somewhere though.

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ag3

ag3

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If you subscribe to weathertap, you can get it. Or one of the other radar sites. I like weathertap because it has almost every feature and is cheap (like 7$ per month). Dual pol isn't available for free that I know of. Maybe it is somewhere though.

Radarscope and pykl3 for smartphones or tablets are only a one time fee of around $9.99 and have the best dual pol and other features.

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free_man

free_man

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00z GFS at 12z on the soundings for ORH has 850 temps of about -1C with a freezing level of 875mb and above 0C below that level. It completely torches the BL between 06z and 12z...we'll find out how accurate this is pretty soon. NAM did the same thing pretty much.

not even a waterlogged coating in N CT?

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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00z GFS at 12z on the soundings for ORH has 850 temps of about -1C with a freezing level of 875mb and above 0C below that level. It completely torches the BL between 06z and 12z...we'll find out how accurate this is pretty soon. NAM did the same thing pretty much.

 

RGEM seems to have come in a smidge warmer than the 12z run. 

Good luck Will.  I really hope 2013/14 brings a return to some normalcy on the short term guidance.  This has to be brutal on you guys, we never seem to know what's going to happen until the very end aside of the blizzard and with each system there's always the outliers.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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00z GFS at 12z on the soundings for ORH has 850 temps of about -1C with a freezing level of 875mb and above 0C below that level. It completely torches the BL between 06z and 12z...we'll find out how accurate this is pretty soon. NAM did the same thing pretty much.

Hmm. It's certainly an event where you can't be very bullish...but some red flags there. I still think they may be too warm, but that's a tough forecast I think for you on down to Tolland.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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RGEM seems to have come in a smidge warmer than the 12z run. 

Good luck Will.  I really hope 2013/14 brings a return to some normalcy on the short term guidance.  This has to be brutal on you guys, we never seem to know what's going to happen until the very end aside of the blizzard and with each system there's always the outliers.

 

 

Yeah at least the RGEM still gives a few inches, but not much more than that...NAM/GFS give no more than an inch...maybe 2". No guidance since the 12z Euro/ensembles give more than about 3" here.

 

Could be a pretty hard bust by the Euro inside of 24 hours...it hardly ever does that, but I've seen it a few times.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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Yeah at least the RGEM still gives a few inches, but not much more than that...NAM/GFS give no more than an inch...maybe 2". No guidance since the 12z Euro/ensembles give more than about 3" here.

 

Could be a pretty hard bust by the Euro inside of 24 hours...it hardly ever does that, but I've seen it a few times.

 

Bizarre year though.  Odd that we had issues with the Euro in so tight this year (presuming it's wrong tonight and I'm not sure that can be concluded yet).  I wonder if it's the pattern or the "upgrades" they did earlier in the year.

 

Anyway, more white gold in ski country.  What an amazing stretch.  Hoping to wake up to reports of 3+ up your way.

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