Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

[ORH_wxman]

I'm far more interest in Feb 27th here than the Mar 1s potential....the Mar 1st potential is interesting, but there's plenty of ways it can just be light snow for a few days under a ULL.

[Ginx snewx]

I'm far more interest in Feb 27th here than the Mar 1s potential....the Mar 1st potential is interesting, but there's plenty of ways it can just be light snow for a few days under a ULL.

Then again man o man look at the analogs from day 6-14 LOL

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Really close to NBD though. If the flow is even a tiny bit faster..then it's days of flurries. Such potential, but such disappointment potentially too.

 

All but one of the recent storms has ended up being more progressive/weaker/more offshore (or some combination of the three).  I'd take my bet on this being no different.

[Typhoon Tip]

Is this -NAO east based right now ? 

 

The ambient heights don't "look" very -NAO through D5 on any operational model I have seen that covers the NW Atl. Basin. 

 

Meanwhile, the runs are winding up a potent mid level vortex so far west that the 27th is a none issue liquid deal, that translates through pretty quickly at that.  Almost like POSITIVE NOA.  That actually looks acceptable relative to the operational run's amount of blocking. 

 

Yet, the NAO is negative at all agencies, foreign and domestic, with strongly concerted opinion in ensembles.   Clearly, there is a disconnect going on some where...  

 

I have to agree with Will on the Mar 1 - verbatim (stupid) it looks more like a rotting upper level, with an established negative anomaly that's termed out large scale mixing so it just becomes a large stable gyre that's not really doing much by then.  But that's just the way it "looks" right now.  As this nearer term system is showing, there is a lot about the circulation at large during the present time that is causing the models to perform oddly.  Time will tell if there is another potent system in there, or if it is just a big -NAO counter-balancing negative node that rots and fills over 5 days.  

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Is this -NAO east based right now ? 

 

The ambient heights don't "look" very -NAO through D5 on any operational model I have seen that covers the NW Atl. Basin. 

 

Meanwhile, the runs are winding up a potent mid level vortex so far west that the 27th is a none issue liquid deal, that translates through pretty quickly at that.  Almost like POSITIVE NOA.  That actually looks acceptable relative to the operational run's amount of blocking. 

 

Yet, the NAO is negative at all agencies, foreign and domestic, with strongly concerted opinion in ensembles.   Clearly, there is a disconnect going on some where...  

 

I have to agree with Will on the Mar 1 - verbatim (stupid) it looks more like a rotting upper level, with an established negative anomaly that's termed out large scale mixing so it just becomes a large stable gyre that's not really doing much by then.  But that's just the way it "looks" right now.  As this nearer term system is showing, there is a lot about the circulation at large during the present time that is causing the models to perform oddly.  Time will tell if there is another potent system in there, or if it is just a big -NAO counter-balancing negative node that rots and fills over 5 days.  

 

It's interesting enough with a 5h low closing off to our south though.  Remains progressive on the GFS, but could still dump on some of us for sure.

[CoastalWx]

The block ends up from srn Greenland and retros to Davis straits and east of Hudson Bay.

 

The models look fine....I mean so long as you treat is as allowing storms to fire near the East Coast and not expecting Feb 69 to move in..looks fine to me. GFS op finally coming on board for something near March 1.

[Ginx snewx]

The block ends up from srn Greenland and retros to Davis straits and east of Hudson Bay.

 

The models look fine....I mean so long as you treat is as allowing storms to fire near the East Coast and not expecting Feb 69 to move in..looks fine to me. GFS op finally coming on board for something near March 1.

Thats a ton of precip through day 8 for those that stay all snow in CNE NNE on the GFS

[Typhoon Tip]

The block ends up from srn Greenland and retros to Davis straits and east of Hudson Bay.

 

The models look fine....I mean so long as you treat is as allowing storms to fire near the East Coast and not expecting Feb 69 to move in..looks fine to me. GFS op finally coming on board for something near March 1.

 

 

I respectfully disagree -   I just got done saying that the operational runs are out of sync with the teleconnectors that are derived from their very own ensemble members.  There is a disconnect there, where in fact the models DON'T like fine. 

[OSUmetstud]

There's still west Atlantic ridging fighting with the -NAO...heights are above normal over the east and off the east coast even though there's a block to north...that's why the upper level low does just get squeezed south of the block and turn into a Miller B...plus the thing is already well-developed and occluding.

[CoastalWx]

I respectfully disagree -   I just got done saying that the operational runs are out of sync with the teleconnectors that are derived from their very own ensemble members.  There is a disconnect there, where in fact the models DON'T like fine. 

 

Who cares about the operational runs. I talking about the GEFS and EC ensembles which look fine in terms of a favorable pattern for storminess.

[CoastalWx]

There's still west Atlantic ridging fighting with the -NAO...heights are above normal over the east and off the east coast even though there's a block to north...that's why the upper level low does just get squeezed south of the block and turn into a Miller B...plus the thing is already well-developed and occluding.

 Troughing develops from the Azores to Alabama.

[Typhoon Tip]

Who cares about the operational runs. I talking about the GEFS and EC ensembles which look fine in terms of a favorable pattern for storminess.

 

Oh, ha - I thought you were saying the opposite... 

 

Well, it depends which is right - the point I am trying to hone is that if the ensemble are right, the current operational versions are dubious.  What adds to the consternation is that all the operational versions seem to agree on the evolution through the 27th.   

 

That's why I asked initially if the NAO were east based, because if so, that wave spacing might make more sense for the OV inland track with that deep feature - but really doesn't.  I gets to about N OH, just far enough north to ruin the hopes and dreams of the local winter faithful - nice! 

 

It's like the pattern has a conscious awareness of the mind set and hates them - hahaha

[OSUmetstud]

 Troughing develops from the Azores to Alabama.

 

yeah...after feb 27th lol.

[Typhoon Tip]

It's interesting enough with a 5h low closing off to our south though.  Remains progressive on the GFS, but could still dump on some of us for sure.

 

Oh sure - any time we can park a feature like that underneath, you'd be retarded to toss it.   

 

There seems to be something palpably destroying storms in all this though.  What physical processes ... perhaps it is wave interference...who knows, but these operational runs seem to be fighting creating an actual event out of it, in lieu of just having a large scale deep anomaly evolve on through over a week's time with no consequence.  Interesting... 

[CoastalWx]

Oh, ha - I thought you were saying the opposite... 

 

Well, it depends which is right - the point I am trying to hone is that if the ensemble are right, the current operational versions are dubious.  What adds to the consternation is that all the operational versions seem to agree on the evolution through the 27th.   

 

That's why I asked initially if the NAO were east based, because if so, that wave spacing might make more sense for the OV inland track with that deep feature - but really doesn't.  I gets to about N OH, just far enough north to ruin the hopes and dreams of the local winter faithful - nice! 

 

It's like the pattern has a conscious awareness of the mind set and hates them - hahaha

You could probably argue it starts east based first. I was coming from a different point of view I guess..lol. I'm not expecting a 100hr redux by any means...just looking for a favorable pattern to allow for East Coast cyclogenesis and I think this allows for it. I'm pretty intrigued by this..the blocking developing by Greenland looks amazing.

[CoastalWx]

yeah...after feb 27th lol.

 

 

Yeah this threat certainly is a CNE deal and down to maybe Will. I've already wrote this off here, but the interior peeps should keep an eye on it.

[OSUmetstud]

Yeah this threat certainly is a CNE deal and down to maybe Will. I've already wrote this off here, but the interior peeps should keep an eye on it.

 

for sure.  I was just commenting on why the feb 27th closed low wasn't getting squeezed east under SNE and turning into a Miller B.

[Typhoon Tip]

You could probably argue it starts east based first. I was coming from a different point of view I guess..lol. I'm not expecting a 100hr redux by any means...just looking for a favorable pattern to allow for East Coast cyclogenesis and I think this allows for it. I'm pretty intrigued by this..the blocking developing by Greenland looks amazing.

 

 

Which is actually highly true!   The general user should be aware of the inherent risk in having a large negative anomaly "UNDER" your latitude - whether the models are actually doing anything with it or not, there are days and days for that to correct either way.  

[CoastalWx]

for sure.  I was just commenting on why the feb 27th closed low wasn't getting squeezed east under SNE and turning into a Miller B.

 

I'm a dope and treated this as the thread beyond Feb 27.  I agree with why it's not getting shoved underneath.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro gives pretty good snow to the interior north of the pike in SNE...might keep Hubbdave all snow...good thump here before ending as rain but then we go back to snow. Very marginal though...a little further north and its only a couple inches on the front and then rain.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Looks good for CNE... nickels and dimes its way to the weekend

[CoastalWx]

What a tough call north of the Pike. Looks like a classic plastering in the high spots esp HubbDave on NE. Juiced up erly flow.

[ORH_wxman]

What a tough call north of the Pike. Looks like a classic plastering in the high spots esp HubbDave on NE. Juiced up erly flow.

 

 

This has the feeling thatit could be really good...but so close and we may just end up slightly too far south...I hope not though because that is an absolute classic look to just paste the N ORH hills on the deep layer easterly flow.

[CoastalWx]

This has the feeling thatit could be really good...but so close and we may just end up slightly too far south...I hope not though because that is an absolute classic look to just paste the N ORH hills on the deep layer easterly flow.

 

I thought for a second the euro was gonna pop the low more east on the 12z run. Maybe given the trends of late...who knows.

[HoarfrostHubb]

What a tough call north of the Pike. Looks like a classic plastering in the high spots esp HubbDave on NE. Juiced up erly flow.

I thought it looked too warm here

[ORH_wxman]

I thought it looked too warm here

  96h and 102h are cold enough while its coming down...the line gets near the NH border at 108 before collapsing back SE. Its close....given the trend this month, certainly worth keeping an eye on.

[OSUmetstud]

I could really use a couple degrees cooler.  This damn system is pretty warm.

[weatherMA]

GFS torches into N NH after a front end thump. Euro is colder so hopefully the GFS is off.

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like south of pike Euro is snow to sleet to cold rain. Better than it looked. Any chance this trends farther SE?

[CT Rain]

Looks like south of pike Euro is snow to sleet to cold rain. Better than it looked. Any chance this trends farther SE?

 

I think it might. May have an icy appeal if secondary can develop a bit more.