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Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

New ALY map cut way back. The earlier map had me solidly in the 8-10" zone with 10-14" just to my east. Current map has me on the line between 2-4" and 4-6". While I thought the earlier map was a bit overdone, I think this one is underdone.

 

I'm still going to stick with my call of 6-7" for the Lenox, Pittsfield area with 10-12" up near 2K. I'm also thinking 2-4" for the Albany area with 1-2" down near Hudson. Some of the Catskills may see double figures as well. I also think the BOX map may be a bit underdone for the northern Pioneer Valley with the 1-2". I'd go 2-4" for there, with 1-2" for the Springfield area.

 

The zone forecasts are more specific about 2-4" and 4-7" for Franklin Co.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html

 

water vapor looks cool. lots of features when you click on fronts.

 

temps very uniform around sne

 

pym 36/26

orh 35/25

bvy 37/26

 

35.5 IMBY prolly wait for ever for the rain to start as i watch even LL go over to snow in SW CT in about 3 hrs...he may not but the guy in shelton prolly will. precip will get to W CT about 8 hrs ahead of me

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ChrisM

ChrisM

Posted
Posted

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html

 

water vapor looks cool. lots of features when you click on fronts.

 

temps very uniform around sne

 

pym 36/26

orh 35/25

bvy 37/26

 

35.5 IMBY prolly wait for ever for the rain to start as i watch even LL go over to snow in SW CT in about 3 hrs...he may not but the guy in shelton prolly will. precip will get to W CT about 8 hrs ahead of me

 

it's 36/25 here.  You're right, a lot of the region is the same even down here.

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jsw

jsw

Posted
Posted

35.1/26 as I walk in the door. Bring on the snow

 

I'm pretty excited about the Winter Storm Warning update for here. 

 

 

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 14 INCHES FOR  HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN...NORTHERN FULTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM  COUNTY...AND 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN GREENE...WESTERN  ULSTER AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES.* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES...AN INCH PER HOUR...MAINLY LATE  TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

That's up from 4 - 10 inches this morning and it's starting later tonight, right. Long day at work and haven't been able to scrutinize updates.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

My friend from UNH just texted saying he got a notification of 8-12" WSW on his phone...but they are very close to the coast and literally like below 100' elevation. If they're going to be in a warning, shouldn't GYX have 4-8" warnings for their southern coastal zones? I don't know...maybe they get 8" but I think it will be difficult. 

 

They are literally 5 miles north of where there aren't even advisories up, and the P+C says less than an inch. A little confusing I will admit. 

 

edit: Not to mention GYX map has <1" for them. Why aren't they consistent???

 

 

Sometimes the weenies get a little headline happy.

 

Like Powderfreak said, we can only work within the zone break we were given. Strafford County that you are referencing indeed has around an inch in the southeast part of the county. However, in the northwest part of the county we're forecasting 8-14". The criteria for verifying a warning is half of the zone receiving warning level snows. Strafford is roughly split down the middle of the county for warning snows, hence they get a warning. Coastal Rockingham should see mostly rain, hence no headline. Same deal with interior York and coastal York County in Maine. The WSW can only get so detailed, and since Strafford County is one zone it will pick the higher amounts to put into the warning text.

 

The snowfall map matches the P&C and that's really all that matters. People will cry bust because they had a warning and didn't see snow, but the gradient may just be that sharp. This is a situation where we have to hope our media partners do a good job explaining the situation, because we cannot rely on the public to read AFDs or understand that the P&C is more correct than the WSW text.

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted

Sometimes the weenies get a little headline happy.

Like Powderfreak said, we can only work within the zone break we were given. Strafford County that you are referencing indeed has around an inch in the southeast part of the county. However, in the northwest part of the county we're forecasting 8-14". The criteria for verifying a warning is half of the zone receiving warning level snows. Strafford is roughly split down the middle of the county for warning snows, hence they get a warning. Coastal Rockingham should see mostly rain, hence no headline. Same deal with interior York and coastal York County in Maine. The WSW can only get so detailed, and since Strafford County is one zone it will pick the higher amounts to put into the warning text.

The snowfall map matches the P&C and that's really all that matters. People will cry bust because they had a warning and didn't see snow, but the gradient may just be that sharp. This is a situation where we have to hope our media partners do a good job explaining the situation, because we cannot rely on the public to read AFDs or understand that the P&C is more correct than the WSW text.

Thanks for the explanation and sorry if I came off critical. I understand now.
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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

Thanks for the explanation and sorry if I came off critical. I understand now.

 

It's not a problem. They're the same questions we deal with daily from the public.

 

You'll learn in time what a pain it can be to work within political boundaries when forecasting. Making the snowfall map is relatively easy, turning it into a WaWa map is a totally different story.

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