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Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Patrick-02540

Patrick-02540

Posted
Posted

 Agreed. I think I speak for a silent majority when I say that we have come to appreciate and even rely on the Rev's unrelenting optimisim to keep our hopes up.

 

But maybe we should try that reverse psychology thing again.....

I agree too.  I drive weekly from Cape Cod to Litchfield county in CT and pass Tolland on 84, to and from.  As I drive along, making my way up and along those rolling and myriad hills of Tolland, watching my GPS altimeter function always trying but never quite making it over 800 feet, I look to my left and I look to my right and I wonder to myself, "Where is that stalwart and always snow-covered bluff that rises to precisely a thousand feet and is called Mount Tolland?  Where is the keeper of that expansive rise, the modern-day shepherd of snowboards, as long ago was Moses of commandments?" I will continue to search, and I will continue to pass as close as any man might come to it.  And some day, I may happen upon that mecca where all winter-weather lovers seek to haj.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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NAM does too but it still furnaces the mid-levels so fast. We go from -6C 850 temps to 0C in about 6-8 hours.

 

Just analyzed the 18z initialization against the WV imagery; it appears the NAM is by a small fraction initialized a little N of the actual central axis of the propagating vortex.  It also appears that it's 12 hour position will likely bust too far N by a slightly larger margin, based on the on-going due E movement - the NAM is on an ENE trajectory that has not yet taken place. 

 

Last night NCEP noted that the NAM was a westerly outlier with the position of the vortex out in time, because it was perhaps too proficiently phasing streams - giving rise to more ability to carve into the -NAO domain, no doubt.  That would/could atone for it having more mid level warm tongue than a porn star's dream up this way.   A theme from late last night that seems to still be in play.  

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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If I was forecasting just using foreign guidance with of course some extra weight on the skillful Euro, I would be going 10"+ for N ORH county...if I was using only the NAM/SREFs, I might go 2-4"  :lol::lmao:

 

So how are you going to go? :)

 

Got my weather station all set up sans anemometer! Looking forward to measuring rain and 34F tonight lol

 

Awesome.  What do you have?  Will you be linked up to Wunderground?  Maybe you can teach Kevin how to do it, too.  He needs to get his linked.

 

35.7/26

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Professional Lurker

Professional Lurker

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I agree too. I drive weekly from Cape Cod to Litchfield county in CT and pass Tolland on 84, to and from. As I drive along, making my way up and along those rolling and myriad hills of Tolland, watching my GPS altimeter function always trying but never quite making it over 800 feet, I look to my left and I look to my right and I wonder to myself, "Where is that stalwart and always snow-covered bluff that rises to precisely a thousand feet and is called Mount Tolland? Where is the keeper of that expansive rise, the modern-day shepherd of snowboards, as long ago was Moses of commandments?" I will continue to search, and I will continue to pass as close as any man might come to it. And some day, I may happen upon that mecca where all winter-weather lovers seek to haj.

Lol. Tolland, the west Chesterfield of ct...

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
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Just analyzed the 18z initialization against the WV imagery; it appears the NAM is by a small fraction initialized a little N of the actual central axis of the propagating vortex.  It also appears that it's 12 hour position will likely bust too far N by a slightly larger margin, based on the on-going due E movement - the NAM is on an ESE trajectory that has not yet taken place. 

 

Last night NCEP noted that the NAM was a westerly outlier with the position of the vortex out in time, because it was perhaps too proficiently phasing streams - giving rise to more ability to carve into the -NAO domain, no doubt.  That would/could atone for it have more mid level tongue than a porn star's dream up this way.   A theme from late last night that seems to still be in play.  

 

I don't know what to say......

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I'm def leaning more Euro, but not biting on its 12"+ scenario right now. I'd prob go 4-8" for N ORH county with the higher amounts in the high hilltowns near and N of Rt 2.  Maybe a fine band of 8-12" for te highest weenies spots.

 

So how are you going to go? :)

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
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I agree too.  I drive weekly from Cape Cod to Litchfield county in CT and pass Tolland on 84, to and from.  As I drive along, making my way up and along those rolling and myriad hills of Tolland, watching my GPS altimeter function always trying but never quite making it over 800 feet, I look to my left and I look to my right and I wonder to myself, "Where is that stalwart and always snow-covered bluff that rises to precisely a thousand feet and is called Mount Tolland?  Where is the keeper of that expansive rise, the modern-day shepherd of snowboards, as long ago was Moses of commandments?" I will continue to search, and I will continue to pass as close as any man might come to it.  And some day, I may happen upon that mecca where all winter-weather lovers seek to haj.

 

You need a sherpa to climb it.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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I agree too. I drive weekly from Cape Cod to Litchfield county in CT and pass Tolland on 84, to and from. As I drive along, making my way up and along those rolling and myriad hills of Tolland, watching my GPS altimeter function always trying but never quite making it over 800 feet, I look to my left and I look to my right and I wonder to myself, "Where is that stalwart and always snow-covered bluff that rises to precisely a thousand feet and is called Mount Tolland? Where is the keeper of that expansive rise, the modern-day shepherd of snowboards, as long ago was Moses of commandments?" I will continue to search, and I will continue to pass as close as any man might come to it. And some day, I may happen upon that mecca where all winter-weather lovers seek to haj.

Lol. That crest at top of hill on 84 is a little over 800 feet. If you are heading east as you approach exit 68 look up to your left and you'll see a radio tower there. There's a couple 1000-1110 foot peaks there and nestled in there snugly is my domain.
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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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I'm def leaning more Euro, but not biting on its 12"+ scenario right now. I'd prob go 4-8" for N ORH county with the higher amounts in the high hilltowns near and N of Rt 2.  Maybe a fine band of 8-12" for te highest weenies spots.

 

I think I'll be able to go for a 15-minute walk tomorrow and go from 4-7 here to 10" if I go one way.  If I go toward route 2, I might go from 4-7 here to a dusting of slush.

 

Temp on truck thermometer dropped 3* from Rt. 2 in Shelburne to KPIT in Shelburne earlier this afternoon.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Southern Lower Michigan was routinely 36/27 T and TDs then the wall of rain came in.  A few sites crashed to 33/29 and report freezing rain, while other just cold rain.  It did that for a couple of hours, but now light snow has flashed over.   Not sure if that could be used as any plausible indicator for us.  But when the action gets in here during the wee hours of next morning we may have similar T/TD spreads...  maybe a tick or two colder in the T's

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

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Joe??Is this you?

Nope I'm just asking because down this way the latest NAM/SREF have come in fairly wet and we still have a snowpack in spots. The high res 18z NAM although slightly overdone shows 2-4" of rain area wide. I see no mention of any potential flooding threat from any of the local NWS offices down here. I know you guys are expecting more frozen than we are but it still looks very wet for southern New England.

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
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Joe??Is this you?

No Kev, I garner no joy from raining on anyone's parade, I just sit on the sidelines when its a rainer here, who wants to hear about that, even though it is actual weather.  I am hoping for some destructive winds and coastal flooding, but Okx stepped down from the rather bullish forecast yesterday.

 

Hoping for a few flakes, that would be a victory, and also pulling for the Euro so you guys grab some snow!

 

Good luck, hope to see you in the spring thread soon.:)

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Another meso analysis...  ORH is reporting 37/25... their DP fluctuating 23 to 25 all day.   Meanwhile, Hanscom Field over @ BED is 40/27 and FIT is 41/27... These latter sites are lower elevations by a considerable margin (100's of feet.).  It occurs to me that the morning hour were sunny, and the sun is sear now.  Now as bad as May or June, no...but it is now a factor.  It's likely that we are getting a readings in the lower boundary layer that are not really indicative of the 1300m sounding thickness - the sun evaporates some snow pack and we get thin DP response.   Go up in a bit of  elevation and the ORH readings might be a little more indicative of our lower level potential.     

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SlantStick

SlantStick

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Brutal... a one pixel-width gradient between a 14-18" pixel and a 4-6" pixel about 4 miles east of Alton, NH.

 

I zoomed in on google earth where I think the gradient is, and lol'd when the most prominent feature was a pond named "Coldrain"

 

attachicon.gifCapture6.PNG

LOL! Sharp for sure. That pond use to real kind to me in the 70's early 80's fishing for native brook trout.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Ryan must be doing some reverse psychology today if he's saying he won't see one flake tonight.

 

Conditionally/initially his thickness profile would support snow in the air.  The issue is which model cluster does one go with, thereafter. If it is the Euro, he'll probably do better, particularly in the NW sections of the state - if he lives south, less - duh.  

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

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I think I'll be able to go for a 15-minute walk tomorrow and go from 4-7 here to 10" if I go one way.  If I go toward route 2, I might go from 4-7 here to a dusting of slush.

 

Temp on truck thermometer dropped 3* from Rt. 2 in Shelburne to KPIT in Shelburne earlier this afternoon.

 

You may be surprised how fast it accumulatres before any taint.  I would say 6"+ is safe for you at this point.  Even the lower elevations up this way will pound for a little while, lots of DP's in the upper 20's around here.

 

Once again you gotta' figure that Will up to HubbaDubba Dave is a nice place to be in MA. 

 

I'm planning on 3-4"  here.  I've got the latitude but not the elevation. 

 

Generator is ready just in case...

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