Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

[CoastalWx]

For towns just north of the MA border like Mason, New Ipswich and Jaffrey, what do you think our max snowfall will be?

 

This looks great for New Ipswich...right up against the Watatics.

[Logan11]

It's 32 back home at my place now after a low of 20.  Odd to have it milder up in northern VT.

Man it has to come down hard or else its going to be very hard to accumulate.  It looks pretty warm right now across New England on the whole. 

 

BTV's mid-morning update...

 

WL EXAMINE 12Z DATA...ESPECIALLY NAM AND LOCAL 4KM WRF FOR
POTENTIAL EARLY AFTN HEADLINES IF NEEDED FOR SNOW OR WIND. VERY
TRICKY FCST WITH WARM BL TEMPS. MORE LATER.

10am the morning prior and already upper 30s to near 40F tickling into the NH/MA border?

 

No clearing early tonight to allow temps to drop at all, and Td's already running upper 20s and lower 30s most spots.  This is going to be a 31-34F paste bomb if there ever was one for those that get into the heaviest QPF.

 

mesomap.jpg

[Baroclinic Zone]

May have been discussed, but here's an overview of snowfall maps through 18z tomorrow...

Euro (0z): 3-5" western Mass., 2-4 northern Litchfield County, almost nothing SE of I-84. About 0.5" KTOL.

RGEM (6z): 6-10" eastern slopes of Berkshires, 1-3" along, NW of I-84, 3-7" northern Litchfield Co. About 2" KTOL.

GFS (6z): 5-10" along and N of Mass. Pike, 1-3" along, NW of I-84, 3-5" northern Litchfield Co. Just over 1" KTOL.

NAM (12z): 6-10" western Mass. and northern Litchfield County, 2-4" northern CT hills, about 2" near KTOL.

 

1-2" consensus for Kev, or we toss?

 

Yeah, looks good.  I have him as 1-3".

[SnowMan]

This looks great for New Ipswich...right up against the Watatics.

I am probably a little too far east to get any significant totals.  

 

My thinking is in line with Dom - probably 3-6

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Man, Brattleboro area can't buy a watch or warning this year. lol

 

 

[N. OF PIKE]

man i'm not sure the lower elevations around concord, nh will do as well as the last system  with temps seemingly a tad milder in BL, i wonder if that's the case below 500' over into SW maine.  more like 4-6 of glop ?

 

point and clicks show 1-3 for con/nh tommorrow and all snow high 32-33?

[CoastalWx]

I am probably a little too far east to get any significant totals.  

 

My thinking is in line with Dom - probably 3-6

 

It's going to be elevation dependent I think even in srn NH. Maybe further north up above 500' near the Lakes region is ok. 

[Damage In Tolland]

I'm thinking 2-4 north and west of 84 with the higher amounts in the higher els. If Euro is colder today I'd feel really good about those numbers

[Logan11]

Well ALY is going strictly elevational with this thing and they are probably correct.

Man, Brattleboro area can't buy a watch or warning this year. lol

[ORH_wxman]

12z GFS is warmer than 06z...though it is also faster which probably makes it look warmer than it really is doing a toggle. Gets snow in here by 06-08z

[Quincy]

GFS actually starts N CT as rain, 850mb briefly cools, perhaps a quick inch or two, then warms back up to rain.

[Whineminster]

Hopefully its a westminster crusher too

[Stash]

This map may be outdated, but it doesn't help Brattleboro in that regard that they have a higher threshold for a watch/warning than most of the rest of New England, including most of Southern NE and all of Northern Vermont...

 

Man, Brattleboro area can't buy a watch or warning this year. lol

 

[Logan11]

That's funny that places like ORH have a 6 inch threshold and the Hudson Valley down as far down at POU has a 7 inch threshold.

 

 

This map may be outdated, but it doesn't help Brattleboro in that regard that they have a higher threshold for a watch/warning than most of the rest of New England, including most of Southern NE and all of Northern Vermont...
SN12hrWarning.jpg

 

[CoastalWx]

Well going unoticed is a possible transition to snow as the low develops east of CC. Euro trying to show this but not there so really can't get excited yet, but GFS is stubborn.

[Ginx snewx]

Elephant farts, next.

[Stash]

It must make coordination among offices particularly tricky.  Even within the Hudson Valley, Albany averages 60 or so while POU is barely more than half that...but same threshold applies.

That's funny that places like ORH have a 6 inch threshold and the Hudson Valley down as far down at POU has a 7 inch threshold.

[CoastalWx]

Elephant farts, next.

 

No surprise. 

[Tropopause_Fold]

Well going unoticed is a possible transition to snow as the low develops east of CC. Euro trying to show this but not there so really can't get excited yet, but GFS is stubborn.

i just wish the low levels weren't so hideous behind this thing. it takes forever to rid the lower 2000 feet of this pukey airmass. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

This map may be outdated, but it doesn't help Brattleboro in that regard that they have a higher threshold for a watch/warning than most of the rest of New England, including most I of Southern NE and all of Northern Vermont...

SN12hrWarning.jpg

I didn't realize that. They are also surrounded by big hills and right near the rivers.

[Quincy]

I might take a stab at a regional snowfall forecast after the 12z Euro. I think the NW and NE CT hills generally see 1-3" at this point, maybe 4" in extreme northern Litchfield County. Too bad this system isn't tracking just a tick to the southeast...

[Damage In Tolland]

Well going unoticed is a possible transition to snow as the low develops east of CC. Euro trying to show this but not there so really can't get excited yet, but GFS is stubborn.

When is that for?

[weatherMA]

man i'm not sure the lower elevations around concord, nh will do as well as the last system  with temps seemingly a tad milder in BL, i wonder if that's the case below 500' over into SW maine.  more like 4-6 of glop ?

 

point and clicks show 1-3 for con/nh tommorrow and all snow high 32-33?

They're in a warning for 8-12", no?

[Quincy]

When is that for?

Thursday night, but it's been trending east the past few runs.

[moneypitmike]

This map may be outdated, but it doesn't help Brattleboro in that regard that they have a higher threshold for a watch/warning than most of the rest of New England, including most of Southern NE and all of Northern Vermont...

SN12hrWarning.jpg

 

 

I believe GYX is 7".

[powderfreak]

Yeah, the meso maps are not pretty if you are trying to build confidence for a good snow storm.

 

Its not good when you see valley spots like Westfield already at 38/33... I mean that's already game over.  Its not like we are advecting colder air in prior to this.

 

I could definitely see a lot of spots start as light rain at like 34-36F, then dip to 32F with heavier precip for a few hours before going back to snow.

 

4km resolution meso-models have H85 temps pretty closely tied to orographics, upslope areas below 0C and downslope areas above 0C.  Its going to be that close.

[dryslot]

Power outages may become a big issue up here with this the way this looks right now

[Ginx snewx]

No surprise.

farts linger through the redevelopment

[dryslot]

I believe GYX is 7".

 

 

No, Its 6"

[HIPPYVALLEY]

It must make coordination among offices particularly tricky.  Even within the Hudson Valley, Albany averages 60" or so while POU is barely more than half that...but same threshold applies.

 

Oh', so it used to snow in Albany?  lol