Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

[HoarfrostHubb]

Lots of caution flags with this one...

[Logan11]

If I could somehow get six inches of sap snow I would consider it a huge victory.

[dryslot]

The only layers i can see, 925mb we go above freezing from hr 51-57 but that is well after the initial surge moves thru then we drop back below freezing again before the ULL comes thru, Nam ramped up qpf close to 2" this run, To bad its the Nam outside of its usefulness

[CoastalWx]

Most of SNE could dryslot after 18-20z...but its an interesting setup. The Euro is keeping the low slightly further south which prolongs the LLJ easterly flow so that would make stuff last later...esp in the orgraphic favored spots. The NCEP American guidance has been quicker to punch everything north.

 

The one thing I'm fairly sure of is it will rip snow around here for at least the 3am-9am period...what happens after that is the difference between 4-5" or 10"+ in some of the hills around here. Its so close on the soundings...warmer solutions after 15z are barely cold rain and the colder solutions are barely a paste bomb.

 

Yeah the initial thump looks good for sure. No issues there. I almost envision these 20DBz echoes hanging tight over the ORH hills..probably nrn hills into the Monads even after the dryslot approaches due to the strong erly flow. You probably want it colder in the lower levels below the dryslot for snowgrowth, but it maybe be like 30-32 in the lower 200mb lol. Aggregates for sure.

[CoastalWx]

If you guys have the chance, check out NWS Amarillo on FB. Wow.

[PWMan]

Lots of caution flags with this one...

Maybe it's semantics, but to me this whole setup is so marginal that the "flags" thing doesn't really apply. To me that's reserved for a storm that looks almost perfect on paper, but does have a couple ways that it could conceivably underachieve -- so mets are well advised to point them out so that people don't get carried away. A system like this is seriously flawed from the get-go (except for the highest elevations and far-distant-remote interior), so saying it has flags seems redundant. Not that it matters, but just my .02....

[Modfan]

Most of SNE could dryslot after 18-20z...but its an interesting setup. The Euro is keeping the low slightly further south which prolongs the LLJ easterly flow so that would make stuff last later...esp in the orgraphic favored spots. The NCEP American guidance has been quicker to punch everything north.

 

The one thing I'm fairly sure of is it will rip snow around here for at least the 3am-9am period...what happens after that is the difference between 4-5" or 10"+ in some of the hills around here. Its so close on the soundings...warmer solutions after 15z are barely cold rain and the colder solutions are barely a paste bomb.

Will, if it comes down hard enough in some of the hill communities could it cool the column enough to flip to snow? IE Union, Stafford

[HIPPYVALLEY]

12z NAM hitting the Berkshires pretty good, especially the east slope. It looks like > 6" for the entire area and down into far NW CT through 30 hours.

 

My call for my location is 6-8" with 10-14" at 2K and the east slope above 1.5K, as I will probably flip to rain/drizzle for much of the day tomorrow, but the higher elevations may stay snow. Unfortunately, the Hudson and Connecticut River valleys will probably get porked due to warming boundary layers and shadowing.

 

Yeah this could be 1-2" at my house while Hartford to Northampton has nothing but white rain and the foot hills are getting a big paste job.

 

Definitley could be some power issues in the hill towns of Franklin and Hampshire Co's

 

N Adams may have little if anything while a few miles in any direction is warning snow. lol

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah the initial thump looks good for sure. No issues there. I almost envision these 20DBz echoes hanging tight over the ORH hills..probably nrn hills into the Monads even after the dryslot approaches due to the strong erly flow. You probably want it colder in the lower levels below the dryslot for snowgrowth, but it maybe be like 30-32 in the lower 200mb lol. Aggregates for sure.

 

 

Yeah if the mid-levels can stay cold enough, then I think N ORH hills break 10"+ easy...but the concern is that we warm up just enough in mid-levels that we get a cold rain or a sleety/rain/mangled flake mix for several hours after 15z. The foreign guidance says we keep it just cold enough, but the American guidance brings that snow line just north of Rt 2 near the NH border.

 

Tough forecast for sure. Its literally the difference between a 6" thump for Princeton then ugly mix and 14" of paste that lasts all day.

[ORH_wxman]

Will, if it comes down hard enough in some of the hill communities could it cool the column enough to flip to snow? IE Union, Stafford

 

 

Those guys should start as snow for sure, esp above 500-600 feet...but they probably flip after 12z. But we'll see...foreign guidance almost tried to keep a place like Union all snow, but with American guidance being a bit stubborn and foreign guidance warming slightly last night, my guess is a compromise is in order.

[N. OF PIKE]

if only socks was still in rindge, nh.

 

this looks like a winchendon and ashburnham crusher

[radarman]

Yeah this could be 1-2" at my house while Hartford to Northampton has nothing but white rain and the foot hills are getting a big paste job.

 

Definitley could be some power issues in the hill towns of Franklin and Hampshire Co's

 

N Adams may have little if anything while a few miles in any direction is warning snow. lol

 

Consecutive WSAs resulting in traces 3 days apart would be especially painful, I don't care what kind of snow hole you live in.  Guess I'm out on a limb by myself here still thinking we get advisory criteria.

[powderfreak]

This storm has an ugly mid level which says a few things to me. Because the mid levels are relatively dry, the forcing for QPF is both orographically driven and also low level fronto drive as evident by the QPF enhancement near the NH seacoast. In between..it's possible not a whole lot falls. It does have a good Atlantic inflow so it is possible more of a firehose materializes..but something I could envision anyways.

 

Yeah, the primarily lower level UVVs with not much happening higher up (not a lot of lift and lower RH), coupled with warmish temps spell awful snow growth, too.  Lots of needles about to fall which are usually like 8-10:1 even at good boundary layer temperatures.

[ORH_wxman]

if only socks was still in rindge, nh.

 

this looks like a winchendon and ashburnham crusher

 

 

Yeah I feel pretty good about the border towns right up there. I'd love to see everything about 30 miles south for me to be very confident IMBY. I think I'll def get a nice 6 hour period, but hoping it goes longer than that and stays snow throughout the day.

[N. OF PIKE]

we should have a poll to guess who gets the best crushing.

 

Dryslot / Birving/Dentrite/Subdude/Bob butts/M. Webstah etc etc etc   

 

HPC graphics show some probs for the 18 inch swipe from N orh hills thru monads over to c nh/maine line

[DomNH]

Sticking with 4-6'' here. We'll do well enough but shouldn't be able to put up big totals like Cheshire County.

[powderfreak]

I pegged the ME foothills yesterday for jackpot.

 

Not really a tough call in these situations... could see it coming days ago with SE flow. 

[N. OF PIKE]

is this a case where we have a juiced s stream vort that we have to watch perhaps getting a bit father north and pumping up ridging out ahead of it

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Consecutive WSAs resulting in traces 3 days apart would be especially painful, I don't care what kind of snow hole you live in. Guess I'm out on a limb by myself here still thinking we get advisory criteria.

Well, I was taking the most conservative/pessimistic outcome. I still like 2-4" for you and I.

[N. OF PIKE]

point and clicks really not jiving with box or esp gyx map's

[Damage In Tolland]

Pickles just out of control this morning

[masonwoods]

Yeah I feel pretty good about the border towns right up there. I'd love to see everything about 30 miles south for me to be very confident IMBY. I think I'll def get a nice 6 hour period, but hoping it goes longer than that and stays snow throughout the day.

For towns just north of the MA border like Mason, New Ipswich and Jaffrey, what do you think our max snowfall will be?

[wxmanmitch]

12Z NAM faster than 00z with the initial burst and also a little better at pushing the midlevel low underneath us.  This may be offset slightly by it sniffing out a warmer airmass, but IMO the key for the marginal areas is the timing and the leading edge dynamics.  For us, what we wake up to is 90% of the final total probably. 

 

Keeping the midlevels centers a little further south will be key for areas between the Pike and Route 2. The longer we can fight off low and midlevel warming, the better off we'll be. Tough forecast for sure, but I think you'll probably get 3-4" with the initial burst, maybe a little more if you have some elevation.

 

Gotta love that dry slot up between the moisture from the primary and the secondary. If we could shift that about 50 miles east I could have very little precip.  This winter it may be do-able.  LOL

 

I don't see this shifting much further E or SE. I think the hills west of Albany should do well, especially the east slope of the Catskills where > 12" may fall. They always do well in these easterly LLJ scenarios.

 

Yeah this could be 1-2" at my house while Hartford to Northampton has nothing but white rain and the foot hills are getting a big paste job.

 

Definitley could be some power issues in the hill towns of Franklin and Hampshire Co's

 

N Adams may have little if anything while a few miles in any direction is warning snow. lol

 

I think you'll do better than 1-2" due to your latitude. I'd say 4-5" from the front end, and then you flip to light rain or drizzle around or shortly after 15z. MPM just up the road should do well with a solid warning criteria event as he may keep accumulating snow around all day, even after the dryslot approaches us as the easterly LLJ will help him with orographics.

 

Like the 12/26 event, I think orographics will play an important role around here as the midlevels dried out after the first few hours of that event. As such, this may be one of those occasions where some of the mesoscale guidance may score on the upslope/downslope QPF couplets.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Not really a tough call in these situations... could see it coming days ago with SE flow. 

Yup.

[ORH_wxman]

For towns just north of the MA border like Mason, New Ipswich and Jaffrey, what do you think our max snowfall will be?

 

 

12"+...I don't know whether it will be 12-14 or if someone can pull off a 16-18" type total. But someone up there will score huge.

[Cold Miser]

Pickles just out of control this morning

Someone had to take your place as you've been fairly subdued lately.

[teebrdsfan]

You'll probably do better over there than here. Nice warm ocean gonna keep my totals down. Better here than in Portsmouth so I'll be happy about that.

 

Sticking with 4-6'' here. We'll do well enough but shouldn't be able to put up big totals like Cheshire County.

[powderfreak]

Man it has to come down hard or else its going to be very hard to accumulate.  It looks pretty warm right now across New England on the whole. 

 

BTV's mid-morning update...

 

WL EXAMINE 12Z DATA...ESPECIALLY NAM AND LOCAL 4KM WRF FOR
POTENTIAL EARLY AFTN HEADLINES IF NEEDED FOR SNOW OR WIND. VERY
TRICKY FCST WITH WARM BL TEMPS. MORE LATER.

10am the morning prior and already upper 30s to near 40F tickling into the NH/MA border?

 

No clearing early tonight to allow temps to drop at all, and Td's already running upper 20s and lower 30s most spots.  This is going to be a 31-34F paste bomb if there ever was one for those that get into the heaviest QPF.

 

[Quincy]

May have been discussed, but here's an overview of snowfall maps through 18z tomorrow...
Euro (0z): 3-5" western Mass., 2-4 northern Litchfield County, almost nothing SE of I-84. About 0.5" KTOL.
RGEM (6z): 6-10" eastern slopes of Berkshires, 1-3" along, NW of I-84, 3-7" northern Litchfield Co. About 2" KTOL.
GFS (6z): 5-10" along and N of Mass. Pike, 1-3" along, NW of I-84, 3-5" northern Litchfield Co. Just over 1" KTOL.

NAM (12z): 6-10" western Mass. and northern Litchfield County, 2-4" northern CT hills, about 2" near KTOL.

 

1-2" consensus for Kev, or we toss?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Yeah, the meso maps are not pretty if you are trying to build confidence for a good snow storm.

 

 

Man it has to come down hard or else its going to be very hard to accumulate.  It looks pretty warm right now across New England on the whole. 

 

BTV's mid-morning update...

 

WL EXAMINE 12Z DATA...ESPECIALLY NAM AND LOCAL 4KM WRF FOR
POTENTIAL EARLY AFTN HEADLINES IF NEEDED FOR SNOW OR WIND. VERY
TRICKY FCST WITH WARM BL TEMPS. MORE LATER.

10am the morning prior and already upper 30s to near 40F tickling into the NH/MA border?

 

No clearing early tonight to allow temps to drop at all, and Td's already running upper 20s and lower 30s most spots.  This is going to be a 31-34F paste bomb if there ever was one for those that get into the heaviest QPF.

 

mesomap.jpg