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Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Pretty sharp dropoff east of Princeton/FIT line?

 

 

Yeah I imagine. There's going to be a crazy gradient between like Princeton and Lancaster probably. N ORH county is probably the toughest forecats right now...I could see 12" in spots or it could just be 5".

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Are you heading up to NH?

I wish. My goal was to be there during a storm but things haven't timed out right with days off and storms. I'm gonna try to head up Monday. Was in Epping NH yesterday which had 6-8" maybe. I think after this weekend we will all have better chances even down here.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

Antecedent is putrid. Without significant dynamics it will be tough.

 

This is the New England Forum right now discussing the storm.

 

The lower levels are torched with this system for southern and eastern areas on the strong SE/E flow ahead of the developing secondary.   If we had an Arctic airmass preceding this system, we'd all be in a much better position to cash in.

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It's Always Sunny

It's Always Sunny

Posted
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Im not really sure what to expect here, could see a really nice thump or maybe im just a touch to warm and miss out. going to come down to how borderline the temps are. Im at the eastern extent of the foothills. If its a bust here might have to take a trip up to the access rd 9 miles away. Parts of south lancaster get down to like 230 feet so i expect they wont do to well over there but we we will see. should be a fun event regardless.

Yeah you're in a very interesting spot. It'll be interesting to see how you and Worcester vary when all is said and done. Couple hundred feet could make all the difference.

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
Posted

12z NAM hitting the Berkshires pretty good, especially the east slope. It looks like > 6" for the entire area and down into far NW CT through 30 hours.

 

My call for my location is 6-8" with 10-14" at 2K and the east slope above 1.5K, as I will probably flip to rain/drizzle for much of the day tomorrow, but the higher elevations may stay snow. Unfortunately, the Hudson and Connecticut River valleys will probably get porked due to warming boundary layers and shadowing.

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted

12z NAM hitting the Berkshires pretty good, especially the east slope. It looks like > 6" for the entire area and down into far NW CT through 30 hours.

 

My call for my location is 6-8" with 10-14" at 2K and the east slope above 1.5K, as I will probably flip to rain/drizzle for much of the day tomorrow, but the higher elevations may stay snow. Unfortunately, the Hudson and Connecticut River valleys will probably get porked due to warming boundary layers and shadowing.

 

12Z NAM faster than 00z with the initial burst and also a little better at pushing the midlevel low underneath us.  This may be offset slightly by it sniffing out a warmer airmass, but IMO the key for the marginal areas is the timing and the leading edge dynamics.  For us, what we wake up to is 90% of the final total probably. 

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
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Gotta love that dry slot up between the moisture from the primary and the secondary. If we could shift that about 50 miles east I could have very little precip.  This winter it may be do-able.  LOL

12z NAM hitting the Berkshires pretty good, especially the east slope. It looks like > 6" for the entire area and down into far NW CT through 30 hours.

 

My call for my location is 6-8" with 10-14" at 2K and the east slope above 1.5K, as I will probably flip to rain/drizzle for much of the day tomorrow, but the higher elevations may stay snow. Unfortunately, the Hudson and Connecticut River valleys will probably get porked due to warming boundary layers and shadowing.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

This storm has an ugly mid level which says a few things to me. Because the mid levels are relatively dry, the forcing for QPF is both orographically driven and also low level fronto drive as evident by the QPF enhancement near the NH seacoast. In between..it's possible not a whole lot falls. It does have a good Atlantic inflow so it is possible more of a firehose materializes..but something I could envision anyways.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
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In a normal snowfall winter I wouldn't care less about this meh event.  I'm in NJ now...might catch the front end of this driving home  9-12 tonight, but probably won't even stick until I get into the hills near home.

This storm has an ugly mid level which says a few things to me. Because the mid levels are relatively dry, the forcing for QPF is both orographically driven and also low level fronto drive as evident by the QPF enhancement near the NH seacoast. In between..it's possible not a whole lot falls. It does have a good Atlantic inflow so it is possible more of a firehose materializes..but something I could envision anyways.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

This storm has an ugly mid level which says a few things to me. Because the mid levels are relatively dry, the forcing for QPF is both orographically driven and also low level fronto drive as evident by the QPF enhancement near the NH seacoast. In between..it's possible not a whole lot falls. It does have a good Atlantic inflow so it is possible more of a firehose materializes..but something I could envision anyways.

 

 

Most of SNE could dryslot after 18-20z...but its an interesting setup. The Euro is keeping the low slightly further south which prolongs the LLJ easterly flow so that would make stuff last later...esp in the orgraphic favored spots. The NCEP American guidance has been quicker to punch everything north.

 

The one thing I'm fairly sure of is it will rip snow around here for at least the 3am-9am period...what happens after that is the difference between 4-5" or 10"+ in some of the hills around here. Its so close on the soundings...warmer solutions after 15z are barely cold rain and the colder solutions are barely a paste bomb.

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