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Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Euro is pretty meh around here. Looks like the lift is more pedestrian at the onset and it's a bit milder. 

 

May wind up being a 1-3 kinda deal around here prior to rain (ZR in the hills). 

 

The hills get rain too esp with the daytime heating. It was a little warmer..but a few inches for Kevin I guess. HubbDave may do well in this.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

This morning's map says "watch cancel" for all BOX zones with exceptions of N-ORH, NH, W-Frank, W-Hampshire.  They can cancel the rest of the Mass ones after the 12z run. 

 

I'm glad I didn't bite on anything significant.

 

28.9/26

 

What? You are likely going to get WSW criteria. Why do you always do this?

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

The hills get rain too esp with the daytime heating. It was a little warmer..but a few inches for Kevin I guess. HubbDave may do well in this.

 

Yeah probably a period of ZR to rain. Morning commute looks sloppy in the hills. 

 

Meh. 

 

I wish things kept breaking for us on this one we were close to a much more exciting thump.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

What? You are likely going to get WSW criteria. Why do you always do this?

 

Because....

 

1) after the initial burst, the temp profile really is borderline

2) any mixing will dampen (no pun intended) the accumulations that may have already come down

3) while Brian lol'd it (I think it was Brian), the sun tomorrow has the same strenght as Oct 12-13th.  Particularly impactful unless the roads are solidly covered.

 

Like Rick said, this storm has the feel of a system that would be three weeks from now.

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PWMan

PWMan

Posted
Posted

I wrestled with the headlines tonight, hope people understand what I was trying to convey.

I am a little concerned with the amount of QPF being spit out and the approaching dry slot. Some of the profiles would suggest that it was way overdone around 12z Thursday into that afternoon. All the models get it to the southern parts of the CWA to a degree, but how far into it is the question.

lol, SW coast FTL this time around. The AFD is an excellent read.

Should be interesting regardless, and this continues a very nice stretch for parts of ski country.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Because....

 

1) after the initial burst, the temp profile really is borderline

2) any mixing will dampen (no pun intended) the accumulations that may have already come down

3) while Brian lol'd it (I think it was Brian), the sun tomorrow has the same strenght as Oct 12-13th.  Particularly impactful unless the roads are solidly covered.

 

Like Rick said, this storm has the feel of a system that would be three weeks from now.

 

I think you'll be good. You're not prone to downsloping, right?

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
Because....

 

1) after the initial burst, the temp profile really is borderline

2) any mixing will dampen (no pun intended) the accumulations that may have already come down

3) while Brian lol'd it (I think it was Brian), the sun tomorrow has the same strenght as Oct 12-13th.  Particularly impactful unless the roads are solidly covered.

 

Like Rick said, this storm has the feel of a system that would be three weeks from now.

I just think the Feb 27 sun angle is the least of your problems. There is deeper RH in the initial burst. Your issues will be a dead ratter antecedent airmass, warming mid level temps, and eventually the mid/upper level dry slot. You should OK though.
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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

57 is surprisingly low. We hear Pete has 480 so I'm a surprised..lol.

 

LOL.

 

Seriously, though--this has been a disappointing winter for me.  We certainly have not had a snow drought, but so many of the systems managed to escape here.  While CT had some time lauding it's heavy snowfall during early season events (and I think points from ORH east), we were coming through in at least one instance without a flake and merely getting fringed on others.  We did manage something decent on the December storm.  Of course, the blizzard gave us a nice hit, though comparatively that was a miss to the east and south.

 

In spite of not getting much of anything over the weekend, I still have 10" on the ground at my stake.  We'll see how that stake looks tomorrow afternoon.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

I was hoping for better from the Euro

MPM...my apologies

 

We'll see what the 12z brings.  Maybe an 11th hour reprieve (or an 18z reprieve).

 

Two other things of note.  I've gone out for walks the last few days and teh birds have been singing like made.  Sure sign of spring.  And, this one was a real hoot.  On Sunday as the snow was falling heavily and my daughter and I were making snow forts for our snowball fight,  a mosquito landed on my snowfort.  Talk about an insult!!!!!  What the hell.  Needless to say, I smooshed it.

 

One sign of late winter (not that mosquitos are!) that has not occurred yet is the tapping of the maples.  I expect that'll take place in the next couple of days.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Because....

 

1) after the initial burst, the temp profile really is borderline

2) any mixing will dampen (no pun intended) the accumulations that may have already come down

3) while Brian lol'd it (I think it was Brian), the sun tomorrow has the same strenght as Oct 12-13th.  Particularly impactful unless the roads are solidly covered.

 

Like Rick said, this storm has the feel of a system that would be three weeks from now.

Dude enough. Seriously. You're getting more than 10 inches of snow out of this. Think how you're complaining looks to the coastal posters like Scooter who are getting nothing until the ULL snows

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

I was hoping for better from the Euro

MPM...my apologies

 

If the middle levels torch quicker than modeled Mike will be vindicated and we we will forever be subject to him telling us 1000'  is just not enough elevation to be confident in marginal set ups. lol

 

Glad to wake up and see Box upped the totals a bit in Franklin Co.  I sit in the 4-6" zone now but I too am gun shy of being disapointed after this weekend.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

If the middle levels torch quicker than modeled Mike will be vindicated and we we will forever be subject to him telling us 1000'  is just not enough elevation to be confident in marginal set ups. lol

 

Glad to wake up and see Box upped the totals a bit in Franklin Co.  I sit in the 4-6" zone now but I too am gun shy of being disapointed after this weekend.

 

It depends on the set-up.  I don't see it  in this one.  Just noticed that the new BOX watch has the magic number at 1200'.  I can get to 1300 in 3/4 of a mile.  But, I'm not bitter.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

We'll see what the 12z brings. Maybe an 11th hour reprieve (or an 18z reprieve).

I think you've got it right by setting your expectations low. That's always the way to go. Then you can be pleasantly surprised if it goes the right way. Instead of going in gangbusters thinking "8-14 inches and we can adjust upward from there if needed", just think 3-6" so if you end up with 7-8" you are nice and happy ;)

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