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Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

It looks very similar to 18z and 12z on the large panels.  Really just minor differences.  I think most people don't have acess to local temp data and therefore infer differences based on low res charts.

will said it was warmer, he may have been talking about for orh, but i'll take his word

 

my guess is euro is done tickin cooler

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

If the upper levels behave, I think this is an event where my 1000 feet will be very helpful versus the Hudson Valley.

 

But too bad the antecedent airmass is so crappy here.  On February 26th you'd think we could do better. This thing looks more like March 20th...


It looks very similar to 18z and 12z on the large panels.  Really just minor differences.  I think most people don't have acess to local temp data and therefore infer differences based on low res charts.

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

will said it was warmer, he may have been talking about for orh, but i'll take his word

 

my guess is euro is done tickin cooler

All I can see is very low res thickness lines.  Surface features look very similar to previous runs and the parent model is close to 12z.  Thicknesses look a little higher, but I consider that pretty good continuity with previous runs. 

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

Right now I'm in Rockaway, NJ (nw of Morristown) on business. I get home (hopefully to some snow) around midnight tomorrow night.

Hopefully the leading edge follows you all the way home and it gets heavy atop the escarpment.  Snowflakes in the headlights makes the trip more entertaining.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

Usually I exit the Thruway down around Saugerties or Catskill and head nnw up through Greenville and then up through Westerlo/Berne/Knox in Western Albany County to home. It cuts out about 16 miles and tolls.  This time I'll just take the Thruway all the way to 25A. When we get these elevation events sometimes you don't see much effect until you climb up on I-88 toward Duanesburg.  We'll see.... 

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

Unless you are in NH or ME, I think the whole show with this event is gonna be like 4Z to maybe 15Z. Get what snow you can in that window. It might lighten up and mix to -RN or drizzle then, but probably won't matter much accumulation-wise.  Further north they get a longer duration event. 

 

Maybe we get a a little more with the upper low later on.

at hr 48 0c line wed eve is along mass pike or ct /ma border and then ene over BOS

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
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at hr 48 0c line wed eve is along mass pike or ct /ma border and then ene over BOS

I don't think the freezing line will form a smooth contour... in like a west to east fashion.  I think it will be highly terrain dependent, even up to 850mb.  For example, on Wed morning I think it could be colder at 850mb at 2000ft in NW CT than at 200ft along the VT/NY border.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

LOL   If you like snow ...never move to that route 22 corridor along the New England border.  That is downslope hell.

 

Even worse than the downslope I used to get just east of the Catskills escarpment in my former place in Saugerties. At least that only tended to deprive you of snow later in a storm when the winds turned nnw etc.

 

 

I don't think the freezing line will form a smooth contour... in like a west to east fashion.  I think it will be highly terrain dependent, even up to 850mb.  For example, on Wed morning I think it could be colder at 850mb at 2000ft in NW CT than at 200ft along the VT/NY border.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

In general I'm disappointed that this supposedly great blocking isn't forcing the 5H to bowl underneath enough to pop a dominant secondary south of us. I think the configuration of the -NAO is not quite right and the 5H vortex out east of NFLD is displaced too far south and little too far east.

 

Ensemble means about 5 to 7 days ago had the 5H low sliding more under us...but didn't work out.

 

is the LP a bit weaker this run of the euro. on wed eve low pressure looks to be 1000 or so mb.

 

snows start later on euro as they overspread ORH county around 11 am and go thru like 10pm in ORH or so

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

Well it's kind of a forgettable event from the looks of it, but all snow is good snow.

 

I  would probably be kind of mehh if I was in SNE after a 24" blizzard.  From that to a 4-6 soppy wet snowfall isn't worth a lot of attention.

 

 

is the LP a bit weaker this run of the euro. on wed eve low pressure looks to be 1000 or so mb.

 

snows start later on euro as they overspread ORH county around 11 am and go thru like 10pm in ORH or so

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

GYX went WSW's

 

I wrestled with the headlines tonight, hope people understand what I was trying to convey.

 

I am a little concerned with the amount of QPF being spit out and the approaching dry slot. Some of the profiles would suggest that it was way overdone around 12z Thursday into that afternoon. All the models get it to the southern parts of the CWA to a degree, but how far into it is the question.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted 




BTV went with more rain than snow up here...not even a mention of snow on Wednesday night, even at point forecasts at 800-1000ft.



Tonight: Scattered rain and snow showers, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Southeast wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.



Wednesday: Rain and snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Breezy, with a east wind 13 to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.



Wednesday Night: Rain showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 32. East wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.













.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...



AS OF 335 AM EST TUESDAY...WEATHER TURNS MORE ACTIVE IN THE SHORT



TERM PERIOD. MAIN WEATHER FACTORS WILL BE WIND COMBINED WITH A



SLOPPY WINTRY MIX. SLOW MOVING VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE AND 500



MB LOW MOVE EAST OUT OF OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION SPREADS



SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEGINNING 05-12Z IN ADIRONDACKS...AND AFTER



12Z ELSEWHERE. COMPLEX SCENARIO WITH TERRAIN HAVING A BIG IMPACT



ON PRECIP MOUNTS AND TYPE. RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY



WEDNESDAY. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE



UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIP...EASTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREEN



MOUNTAINS AND ADIRONDACKS...WHILE DOWNSLOPE ON WESTERN SIDE OF



GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS WILL SUPPRESS PRECIP. SOME SHADOWING



EXPECTED AS WELL IN NORTHEAST VERMONT DOWN WIND OF THE WHITE



MOUNTAINS.



AT THIS TIME WINTER PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY



CRITERIA. WILL BE A SLOPPY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH ISOLOATED POCKETS



OF SLEET WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...LONG



DURATION OF THE EVENT WILL ACCUMULATE SNOW DEPTHS NEAR 8 INCHES IN



THE HIGHER TERRAIN...HOWEVER WILL TAKE LONGER THAN THE 12 TO 24



HOURS REQUIRED FOR ADVISORY.



			
		


		

		
	


	

	





	
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		OceanStWx
	

				
				
			

		

		

			

				


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AT THIS TIME WINTER PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORYCRITERIA. WILL BE A SLOPPY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH ISOLOATED POCKETSOF SLEET WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...LONGDURATION OF THE EVENT WILL ACCUMULATE SNOW DEPTHS NEAR 8 INCHES INTHE HIGHER TERRAIN...HOWEVER WILL TAKE LONGER THAN THE 12 TO 24HOURS REQUIRED FOR ADVISORY.


 


I find it hard to believe there won't be a 12 hour period with 4 inches of snow at some point. Strictly speaking I think there are 12 hour and 24 hour criteria for winter storm warnings, but no time limit on advisories beyond 12 hours.



			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
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