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Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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The NAM is a fast outlier (haven't seen the RGEM) with the speed in which it fused streams into the closed low; this causes the closed low to deepen/broaden sooner, which allows it to attain a greater polarward position relative to the global guidance types.   It doesn't mean it can't be right, but I don't believe this type of evolution is where the NAM shines brightest performance-wise. 

 

We are not not talking a giant different anyway.  This run still gives interior SNE a solid heavy snow wall prior to flipping [probably] to sleet and a period of ZR before ending.  

 

On the coast, for snow ... regardless of the colder or warmer solutions aloft, you are/were going to have issues with a howling E wind.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Man, even some of these "Warmer" soundings are so close to isothermal snow bomb...looking at 42h sounding for here on GFS.

 

 

Regardless, it looks like the interior hills will see a good thump....the question is whether it can become a big warning event be staying mostly snow or if its a 4-6 hour job before flipping. Won't be staying up for the Euro tonight. Ukie was cold again but not as obscenely cold as 12z was.

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weathafella

weathafella

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Man, even some of these "Warmer" soundings are so close to isothermal snow bomb...looking at 42h sounding for here on GFS.

 

 

Regardless, it looks like the interior hills will see a good thump....the question is whether it can become a big warning event be staying mostly snow or if its a 4-6 hour job before flipping. Won't be staying up for the Euro tonight. Ukie was cold again but not as obscenely cold as 12z was.

Gfs snows on us as the ull passes just underneath d3.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Gfs snows on us as the ull passes just underneath d3.

 

It can snow steady and lightly, with moderate bursts in that, and not really accumulate too well do to wetness/compaction.  It's still possible that the like with the NAM (but not as aggressively) it is allowing too much polarward position with the quasi-closed low, which of course allows the warm push into the overriding critical thickness'.  

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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Gfs has a pretty good thump. Again.as modeled and likely wont happen verbatim with all the small. Changes.

 

GFS looks "good" for the ULL.  Onshore winds up through 8h but marginal 8h temps...would make it interesting as modeled even post ULL for some OE type stuff.

 

Fantasy range though.    Starting to feel like spring now with the snow threats centering further north and dealing with rolling ULL's

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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GFS looks "good" for the ULL.  Onshore winds up through 8h but marginal 8h temps...would make it interesting as modeled even post ULL for some OE type stuff.

 

Fantasy range though.    Starting to feel like spring now with the snow threats centering further north and dealing with rolling ULL's

 

Once we lost the hemispheric drain and real meaningful cold post the blizzard this has flavored this way.  Seems we are trying to time bowling season already. Or, needing perfect timing.. For winter enthusiasts, it's a fight.  

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jsw

jsw

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enjoy brother, insanely jealous of cne/nne

 

Well, here, where I'm in between CNE/WNE and NNE, NWS is saying "light to moderate" snowfall and then possible change to rain. Then they say that it becomes "more interesting" after the first batch. I'm clueless when it comes to models, etc., that's why I won't post much, except for obs. But they don't know exactly what's going to happen after the first batch, which is saying something because, even though I've read that before...I guess it's up in the air. That's why this site is a good resource, because you get all kinds of analysis and commentary that you wouldn't get in the NWS forecast discussion.

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