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Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

from 730 ktan disco

 

AGEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS SHOW NORTH FLOW OF 25-35 KNOTS...EXCEPT
UP TO 55 KNOTS ON THE NAM. EVEN WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS AND
ECMWF THIS COLD AIR DRAINAGE WOULD SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT A CHANGE
TO RAIN WILL BE SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODEL DATA IS ADVERTISING.
WE USED A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF THERMAL FIELDS.

is there a CF setting up somewhere....like 495

 

seeing the kinks in the 850mb flow with the SW nose from the High P NNE/NE of maine would lead me to think there is bust potential on the box map near ray/andover/ and esp the met from lowell

 

i mean do we really buy temps at lowell mass AOA 35 degrees by 9am on wednesday like some models show in their 2m temps w/ AGEO flow

 

i mean it really doesn't look that bad wrt high pressure position, its not  really sliding east to the maritimes ....it's a rather broad area of lp with some models having the "H" symbol NNE of maine some NE at 12z wed and then most have the broad area of high pressure sitting put for most part

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

Are you looking at the Euro?

Yup.  I see a few tenths before surface temps are iffy and about half inch before possible taint.  The Euro is moist and cold and caps the CT/MA border at about 5 or 6".  Since this is on the snowy end of guidance I would hedge toward consensus and knock a few inches off of that.  Seems like a reasonable starting point.  No reason to lock in warning snows now.  Plenty of time to analze future data and ramp up.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Nope SSE flow destroys the BL. Probably will be 36-39F with mod rains.

Schweet!!! At least we'll have plenty of QPF. Sayonara snow pack!

A SWFE is not at the BL. The initial omega burst is from WAA fueled by SW 8h and 7 H.. Yes the flow turns more easterly at 8 H but I'm my hood 1-3 is climo in this setup.
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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

the weenie in me just cant help it

 

18z 4km  btv wrf shows the 35f line collapse a bit Se of 128 at 15z wed and has the r/s line a bit further Se (just S of 128) area giving me about .30 qpf of snow on front end thump from 6am to like 11 am. i'm hoping it could be a 33 paste job (if rates suffice)

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/

 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

the weenie in me just cant help it

18z 4km btv wrf shows the 35f line collapse a bit Se of 128 at 15z wed and has the r/s line a bit further Se (just S of 128) area giving me about .30 qpf of snow on front end thump from 6am to like 11 am. i'm hoping it could be a 33 paste job (if rates suffice)

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/

You are CSI-ing this sh*t.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

You are CSI-ing this sh*t.

 I ask'd will what to look for wrt getting in on front end snows , he said if your along 128 hope for a 33-34 paste job, bc there isn't much to mitigate the deep e flow.

 

i will drive or take a train , to see a snowstorm or avoid a rain storm in the winter. it honestly just is like a slight sucker punch to my emotional gut that i carry around during the day if it's raining for me and snowing not that far away.

 

for this storm i can't go anywhere as i have to work so i'm trying to find some solace or model that shows legit hope of front end snow to keep my mood better. i think many here are in the same boat. i mean if it's a rainer i'll be ok lol, (i know some light up a knee jerk thought when i say "make my mood better" i won't be drinking alone in my room or anything and i'll just move on to other pleasures but for the mean time i hoping and looking for slight shifts somewhere, anywhere lol 

 

i think areas over near lowell and maybe tewksbury by 495 have a legit shot of getting in on a positive bust wrt to box snowfall map, but i mean these folks are 10x smarter than me , but it wouldn't take much

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I ask'd will what to look for wrt getting in on front end snows , he said if your along 128 hope for a 33-34 paste job, bc there isn't much to mitigate the deep e flow.

i will drive or take a train , to see a snowstorm or avoid a rain storm in the winter. it honestly just is like a slight sucker punch to my emotional gut that i carry around during the day if it's raining for me and snowing not that far away.

for this storm i can't go anywhere as i have to work so i'm trying to find some solace or model that shows legit hope of front end snow to keep my mood better. i think many here are in the same boat. i mean if it's a rainer i'll be ok lol, (i know some light up a knee jerk thought when i say "make my mood better" i won't be drinking alone in my room or anything and i'll just move on to other pleasures but for the mean time i hoping and looking for slight shifts somewhere, anywhere lol

Eh, it rains near the coast sometimes. No biggie. Hopefully you see some front end action.

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted

My SWFE climo is 1-3 , that's my thinking

 

Inclined to agree.  The initial burst looks 'SWFEish' and that generally means an early arrival, hence my feeling that a 6-10z thump of 1-2"/hr snows is responsible for the bulk of the snow around here and even for MPM.  Higher terrain probably keeps accumulating through the morning, and the valley is screwed, but not before solid advy criteria and some glaze.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

GYX 4PM AFD Reasoning on WS Watch Posting, and lack thereof for coastal plain of ME/NH

 

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 8 TO 12 INCH

RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR WESTERN MAINE AND CENTRAL NEW

HAMPSHIRE. EASTERLY UPSLOPE AREAS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE

SNOWFALL. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IN DETERMINING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS

THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW PERIODICALLY CHANGING TO RAIN. THERE IS

THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CHANGE TO RAIN OVER A LARGE PORTION OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN

OF MAINE AS TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. AND EVEN IF

PRECIPITATION DOES STAY AS SNOW... WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE

FREEZING IT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE. HOWEVER... GIVEN

THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED... THERE IS ENOUGH

CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR INTERIOR WESTERN

MAINE AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE WATCH BROADLY OUTLINES THE

AREA EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 8 TO 12 INCHES. AREAS OUTSIDE THE WATCH

MAY RECEIVE 6 OR MORE INCHES... BUT CONSIDERING THE LONG DURATION

OF THE SNOW STORM (36+ HOURS) AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND LOWER

ACCUMULATIONS... THESE AREAS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE WATCH AT

THIS TIME. FURTHER ENHANCEMENTS TO THE SNOWFALL FORECAST CAN BE

MADE AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER AND DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

 

Odd because they did include Dover and Rochester and Concord and Hookset in the Watch.  These are coastal plain of SNH

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

Are you home?

If only.....I am scheduled to fly into BOS about 1pm on Thursday.  In case the buses are not running up to CON I've got a car rented.  WSW in effect until Thursday eve and it appears this could go into Friday, so I want to make sure I am not stuck at BOS.  If I can somehow get an earlier flight you know I will...

 

But, I am excited to come home to a big snowpack, still snow in the air and prospects for big storms the following week!

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