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Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

That's true.  But at only 1000', I think I'm capped at 3-4".

I don't.  Unless the warmer solutions verify, you should get 4" at minimum.  1000ft is not insignificant elevation.  The Berks are not high peaks.  Dynamical cooling mechanisms should be more favorable for you than the last storm.

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
Posted

That's true.  But at only 1000', I think I'm capped at 3-4".

 

I wouldn't worry. You'll do well. 1000' should provide enough extra lift to help you out.

 

Although I am at 1,150', I will downslope on easterly flow since elevations to my east and northeast reach and exceed 2000'. As such I expect to get shadowed a bit. I am also a little weary of some midlevel warming on this side of the spine a la 12/26/12, but the colder guidance (12z Euro) may keep me just out of it.

 

However, if not for midlevel warming,  I may get some lowlevel warming during the day Wednesday if the easterly flow is strong enough. Such is life on the west slope...

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

I'm not sure which call's ballsyer (sp?)----this or your your Kevin less than 2". 

 

But, thanks for the encouraging thoughts.  If we can trend colder, I'll bite harder.  But right now, I'm playing very cautious.  Brian, Eric, and Jeff et al are in for a slamming.  Wish I were going to be in Bartlett!

Trails End Ice Cream ftw

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
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We had temps a little below that yesterday, and it still took a little while to accum, but 5 miles away, subdude got smoked. It is about the rates...

I bet you a case of beets you get at least 5"

 

LOL about the beets.......that one never gets old.

 

If you saw how hard it was snowing here for nearly an hour yesterday afternoon--with big flakes--you'd be shocked by the non-accumulation.

 

Let me edit that:  the accumulation was not taking place on the pavement. (or deck really for that matter).  It was piling up on the existing snowpack.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
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LOL about the beets.......that one never gets old.

 

If you saw how hard it was snowing here for nearly an hour yesterday afternoon--with big flakes--you'd be shocked by the non-accumulation.

 

Let me edit that:  the accumulation was not taking place on the pavement. (or deck really for that matter).  It was piling up on the existing snowpack.

Very similar here... You mentioned the clouds... at one point, when my kids were out playing in the snow, we briefly saw the sun, ans I think you or Chris mentioned seeing it, too?  I don't think that will be the case Weds

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Modfan

Modfan

Posted
Posted

Wednesdays commute should be fun. Jerry air mass coming in might not be Arctic buy colder older and lower dew feed. Sig snow farther south? I Still lose but sig front ender NCT,Modfan to Met who smokes Herb.

:lmao:

 

My elevation might hurt me, but the NW corner of town to Stafford might do well. I had just a coating this morning, but Woodstock Valley to Stafford had a tree plastering 1-1.5

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
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No way should 2" be considered a lock anywhere in CT IMO.  Temps look really marginal for the southern 2/3rds of the state and the depth of lifting is relatively shallow, and mostly below the snow growth zone after the initial burst Wed morning.  Using the colder NAM, it would probably be a 6-10 hour period of occasionally mod precip and then a dry slot.  If some of that is lost to sleet or rain, snowfall totals could be unimpressive.

 

The box map looks like a good starting point... I might up the current map by about an inch or so to start and see where guidance goes from here.  I like 2.75" as the over/under point for Kevin (through Wed night).

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

The reverse psychology method.

 

 

Yep, its worked for a few storms in a row. Kevin thinking the blizzard was a whiff....Ray having a minor meltdown and b*tching his way to 27" of snow in that same storm....dryslot b*tching and moaning his way to 10" yesterday.

 

 

MPM will paranoia his way into 12"+ on Wednesday.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
No way should 2" be considered a lock anywhere in CT IMO.  Temps look really marginal for the southern 2/3rds of the state and the depth of lifting is relatively shallow, and mostly below the snow growth zone after the initial burst Wed morning.  Using the colder NAM, it would probably be a 6-10 hour period of occasionally mod precip and then a dry slot.  If some of that is lost to sleet or rain, snowfall totals could be unimpressive.

 

The box map looks like a good starting point... I might up the current map by about an inch or so to start and see where guidance goes from here.  I like 2.75" as the over/under point for Kevin (through Wed night).

No way should 2" be considered a lock anywhere in CT IMO.  Temps look really marginal for the southern 2/3rds of the state and the depth of lifting is relatively shallow, and mostly below the snow growth zone after the initial burst Wed morning.  Using the colder NAM, it would probably be a 6-10 hour period of occasionally mod precip and then a dry slot.  If some of that is lost to sleet or rain, snowfall totals could be unimpressive.

 

The box map looks like a good starting point... I might up the current map by about an inch or so to start and see where guidance goes from here.  I like 2.75" as the over/under point for Kevin (through Wed night).

Are you looking at the Euro?
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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

Nope, bulk will be after.

I think it depends which model you believe.  The NAM really clears things through by around noon or a little after on Wed.  And it looks like the heaviest precip falls around dawn in most places.  Other guidance has significant precip lingering longer during the day.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Very similar here... You mentioned the clouds... at one point, when my kids were out playing in the snow, we briefly saw the sun, ans I think you or Chris mentioned seeing it, too?  I don't think that will be the case Weds

 

Yup--the disc poked through a couple times.  Once during the heavy snow which was just bizarre.

 

Between Jerry, Kevin and MPM prestorm angst is always a fun read.

 

Ha.

He and I are trading houses for the storm, that's where all the confusion came from.  lol

 

LOL--if it's not snowing down there and it is up here, drive on up the hill.

lol at MPM worrying about solar radiation in late Feb.

 

It's the same strength as Oct. 13th.  Yup--I'm worried about it.  Not as much as I will in two week, but the astronomics are what they are.

MPM is out of his teets. Congrats on getting smoked. I love how he's worried about snow while getting smoked, meanwhile it's down the drain here. I almost want I slap him.

 

I think that's beets.  lol

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