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Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Dammit.was using a broad brush. I'm going to lose badly as we have a 3-6 signal.

LOL..I didn't accept..but I will gladly go to dinner next time you roar thru. let me know in advance.

 

I think I'd go 2-5 to split the difference for now..If Euro tickles colder again then maybe a tickle more

 

Anyway..Should be a good hit for alot of interior folks and with any luck maybe the coastal folks can grab a few if not on the front end..then with the ULL.

 

As long as the ULL goes south of us..good things generally happen

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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I'm getting more bullish for ORH hills in this one as time passes. I would like to see one more shift south from NCEP guidance, but they seem to be lagging behind the foreign models in this one. Euro is cold and so are the ensembles.

 

The roaring easterly flow from the sfc up to about 850mb is classic for upslope on the east slopes...esp up in that Westminster/Princeton/Gardner/Ashburnham spine. They could get absolutely croaked as long as the mid-levels stay cold enough.

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weathafella

weathafella

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LOL..I didn't accept..but I will gladly go to dinner next time you roar thru. let me know in advance.

 

I think I'd go 2-5 to split the difference for now..If Euro tickles colder again then maybe a tickle more

 

Anyway..Should be a good hit for alot of interior folks and with any luck maybe the coastal folks can grab a few if not on the front end..then with the ULL.

 

As long as the ULL goes south of us..good things generally happen

I thnk the front end has to happen because I'm worried that the ull will be too warm. Next week a totally different story.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
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I'm getting more bullish for ORH hills in this one as time passes. I would like to see one more shift south from NCEP guidance, but they seem to be lagging behind the foreign models in this one. Euro is cold and so are the ensembles.

 

The roaring easterly flow from the sfc up to about 850mb is classic for upslope on the east slopes...esp up in that Westminster/Princeton/Gardner/Ashburnham spine. They could get absolutely croaked as long as the mid-levels stay cold enough.

Subdude will double my total again...

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

I'm getting more bullish for ORH hills in this one as time passes. I would like to see one more shift south from NCEP guidance, but they seem to be lagging behind the foreign models in this one. Euro is cold and so are the ensembles.

 

The roaring easterly flow from the sfc up to about 850mb is classic for upslope on the east slopes...esp up in that Westminster/Princeton/Gardner/Ashburnham spine. They could get absolutely croaked as long as the mid-levels stay cold enough.

 

Yup--those areas should get slammed.  For the rest of us, not so much.  Yesterday was a sobering day for MPM.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
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Yeah I have no idea why he is afraid for his region. This isn't yesterday where he was too far west of the converngence and removed from synoptic moisture.

 

This is not a qpf concern.  I actually had heavy snow for a couple periods yesterday with huge aggregates.  Melting nearly as fast as it fell in 34* with solar radiation making through the clouds..  Maybe I'll have thicker clouds Thursdasy.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

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This is not a qpf concern.  I actually had heavy snow for a couple periods yesterday with huge aggregates.  Melting nearly as fast as it fell in 34* with solar radiation making through the clouds..  Maybe I'll have thicker clouds Thursdasy.

We had temps a little below that yesterday, and it still took a little while to accum, but 5 miles away, subdude got smoked. It is about the rates...

I bet you a case of beets you get at least 5"

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radarman

radarman

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Posted

This is not a qpf concern.  I actually had heavy snow for a couple periods yesterday with huge aggregates.  Melting nearly as fast as it fell in 34* with solar radiation making through the clouds..  Maybe I'll have thicker clouds Thursdasy.

 

The bulk of the precip occurs pre-dawn Wednesday right?  

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Mpm's gonna get 6-12.

 

I'm not sure which call's ballsyer (sp?)----this or your your Kevin less than 2". 

 

But, thanks for the encouraging thoughts.  If we can trend colder, I'll bite harder.  But right now, I'm playing very cautious.  Brian, Eric, and Jeff et al are in for a slamming.  Wish I were going to be in Bartlett!

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