Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

[ineedsnow]

why no box map yet?

[ctsnowstorm628]

Even up here in the mountain valleys we will likely go to rain or rain/snow mix below like 1,000-1,500ft on Thursday afternoon.  Mountains are another story, but not sure where this extra several inches of ULL snow is coming from.  In January, yes.  This time of year with this airmass, it's probably 32-36F -SNRN showers.

 

We do not really get any new air advected into the region until later Friday and Friday night.

Yes. Honestly it may be wet snow, but it won't accumulate below probably 1,200-1,500 feet during the day time hours. Downsloping with will HUGE with this in the CT river valley as well.

[CoastalWx]

Uzi swallower for Ray? Maybe this can go south for him. Then it's up to me to shove a grenade down my throat.

[powderfreak]

this thread is about Wednesday Thursday day

 

Yes and he was talking about Thursday afternoon and the ULL, Ginx.  That's when we are warmest.

[eduggs]

SREFs showing marked downsloping signature to the QPF distribution.  Other guidance showing similar.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PCNTOTNE_15z/f63.gif

 

Snow probs exagerate the effect with high terrain, particularly east slopes, dynamically cooling.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREFPROBNE_15z/f12s48.gif

 

Seems legit but I hope it's overdone.

[NorEastermass128]

Uzi swallower for Ray? Maybe this can go south for him. Then it's up to me to shove a grenade down my throat.

 

Maybe we can luck out with any redeveloping snows on Friday.  ENE special enroute?  We'll let W/CNE have their fun with this one.

[powderfreak]

East Southeastern high negative 850 inflow with high PWAT and folks are downplaying the Greens, yeah I don't get it.

 

lol Ginx.  No one is down playing.  Its upslope/downslope.

 

I know you are always going big and snowy dude, but Thursday looks to get mild, especially in the valleys.

 

Looking real cold late morning into the afternoon on Thursday...most areas will likely go to drizzle and rain/snow showers on Thursday.  Not sure why that's such an issue.

 

[eduggs]

Glens Falls to White Hall to Fair Haven VT not looking so great despite latitude.

[weatherMA]

I think probably 6-9" where I am specifically, but a general 8-14" or 6-12" forecast works for this area NAM would be much better here then the GFS. Euro in between.

[ma blizzard]

despite the models ticking a little cooler today, I'm not expecting more than 1"-3" in Lowell before the flip to rain. It seems that in spite of a decent amount of latitude here, the BL will torch as it usually does with east winds here on the CP. I would prefer to be back home by ORH in this event .. ( just like the inverted trough set-up ..)

[powderfreak]

SREFs showing marked downsloping signature to the QPF distribution.  Other guidance showing similar.

 

Seems legit but I hope it's overdone.

 

Upslope/Downslope...

 

[neweathereye]

This morning in Augusta Maine..a view from Our house.. 12" total ..clouds and sun all day today..Winter Storm Watch Wed into late Thursday 8-12" more snow Friday..

http://northeastweathereye.com

Craig

[weatherMA]

Upslope/Downslope...

 

Untitled.jpg

That's insane if it verified like that. Some spots in the valley don't get .1"? lol

 

What't the link for that?

[eduggs]

Upslope/Downslope...

I hope and expect that that hi res image is overdone with the terrain effects.  No precip for ALB...?  Wouldn't have to worry about ptype anyway.  I believe showed something similar back in December and verified way too light in the valleys.

[mattlacroix4]

GFS is just incredible

[powderfreak]

That's insane if it verified like that. Some spots in the valley don't get .1"? lol

 

Partly cloudy throughout in ALB, lol.

 

Intense LLJ at H85 though will really enhance the omega on the upslope, and really screw the downslope.  The BTV WRF 700mb UVVs are pretty nuts.  There really doesn't seem to be a ton of deep layer omega though, for whatever reason it seems really low/mid level driven and terrain really gets into play.

[powderfreak]

I hope and expect that that hi res image is overdone with the terrain effects.  No precip for ALB...?  Wouldn't have to worry about ptype anyway.  I believe it was similar back in December and way too light in the valleys.

 

Oh they always are overdone, but this situation it will certainly play a role.  Hard to completely ignore it when entire ensemble means are showing terrain "notches" of higher and lower QPF.

 

That image was more for LOL purposes.  I have a hard time believing ALB doesn't see measurable QPF, haha.

[weatherMA]

Partly cloudy throughout in ALB, lol.

 

Intense LLJ at H85 though will really enhance the omega on the upslope, and really screw the downslope.  The BTV WRF 700mb UVVs are pretty nuts.  There really doesn't seem to be a ton of deep layer omega though, for whatever reason it seems really low/mid level driven and terrain really gets into play.

Do you have the link?

[weathafella]

Elephant in the room storm for MOST of SNE.

[powderfreak]

Do you have the link?

 

This is the BTV WRF... its still the 12z run and only goes out till 7pm Wednesday, so its got the first half of the storm.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/

[weatherMA]

This is the BTV WRF... its still the 12z run and only goes out till 7pm Wednesday, so its got the first half of the storm.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/

Thanks.

[dendrite]

Oh they always are overdone, but this situation it will certainly play a role.  Hard to completely ignore it when entire ensemble means are showing terrain "notches" of higher and lower QPF.

 

That image was more for LOL purposes.  I have a hard time believing ALB doesn't see measurable QPF, haha.

4km NAM is orographically extreme too.

[Ginx snewx]

lol Ginx. No one is down playing. Its upslope/downslope.

I know you are always going big and snowy dude, but Thursday looks to get mild, especially in the valleys.

Looking real cold late morning into the afternoon on Thursday...most areas will likely go to drizzle and rain/snow showers on Thursday. Not sure why that's such an issue.

warm.png

no I don't always go big, enjoy your downsloping, and next time post a Euro temp map.

[powderfreak]

no I don't always go big, enjoy your downsloping, and next time post a Euro temp map.

 

lol ok.  We can revisit this on Thursday afternoon and see what temps are.

[Ginx snewx]

Thursday afternoon? Oh I thought we were discussing this storm, my bad

[moneypitmike]

Elephant in the room storm for MOST of SNE.

 

Yup.  Much of that ludicrous 18z GFS would be heavily tainted.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

[HIPPYVALLEY]

[moneypitmike]

Elephant in the room storm for MOST of SNE.

 

Here's your elephant, Jerry.

[moneypitmike]

 

 

As much as I don't want to, I think the BOX map looks pretty reasonable.  Seeing how hard it snowed here at times Sunday with nothing to show for it (until near sunset when we actually did accumulate) was a good example of what happens with marginal temps and strong sun.