Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

[Tropopause_Fold]

i hope we see a repeat of this thing...just displaced well SE of it's current track in a week or two. 

[radarman]

My guess is BOX puts up a watch for the two NH counties N ORH county and GC.

 

Just curious Will but if consensus is for >1" QPF  and the Euro and ens are so cold, wouldn't you expect E. Franklin Co to have one too? 

[Tropopause_Fold]

LOL so an east wind means we are in spring mode? Yeah we never have issues in the dead of winter with east winds. What a meatball.

yeah it's just dumb. 30 knots of ESE flow in Jan would do the same thing. you never want a secondary cutting N/S across NJ and a HP to our ENE. forget all the other stuff, it's just a crappy track. lol.

[ORH_wxman]

Just curious Will but if consensus is for >1" QPF  and the Euro and ens are so cold, wouldn't you expect E. Franklin Co to have one too? 

 

 

Yeah they'll prob put all of Franklin county in the watch...they often will keep eastern Hamden and Hampshire counties out though if it is marginal.

[Typhoon Tip]

Lot of users don't use the FRH (FOUS) grid, but because I grew up with them, I know how to use them and what the numbers in the grid mean.  

 

anyway, the FOUS has cooled some and moved up the precip by 3-6 hours.  It's suggesting a there is likely to be a band of very heavy snow from SW Mass to FIT or perhaps even Lowell

[CoastalWx]

yeah it's just dumb. 30 knots of ESE flow in Jan would do the same thing. you never want a secondary cutting N/S across NJ and a HP to our ENE. forget all the other stuff, it's just a crappy track. lol.

Ugh, I feel like going on a rant. Such horrible forecasts put out by people who should know better.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah they'll prob put all of Franklin county in the watch...they often will keep eastern Hamden and Hampshire counties out though if it is marginal.

Since NAM and Euro ens keep me all snow you think they're too cold?

[Tropopause_Fold]

for people like kevin in CT, this is a weird storm. you could get a decent front end thump of a few/several inches...go to a mix...then end. then rot for a day at 37F-42F with drizzle...or only inch to like 33 or 34F before falling back. it's tough. i could see either happening. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

My guess is BOX puts up a watch for the two NH counties N ORH county and GC.

It would be cool if they called it GC in the WSW

[ORH_wxman]

Since NAM and Euro ens keep me all snow you think they're too cold?

 

Neither keep you all snow, lol.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Since NAM and Euro ens keep me all snow you think they're too cold?

just my thoughts, but i think it'll be tough for you to stay all snow unless we see things come in colder and colder over the next 36 hours. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Neither keep you all snow, lol.

I thought you said euro ens didn't even get it to Mass border? I thought NAm was cold enough for a paster?

[free_man]

yeah it's just dumb. 30 knots of ESE flow in Jan would do the same thing. you never want a secondary cutting N/S across NJ and a HP to our ENE. forget all the other stuff, it's just a crappy track. lol.

Now that the more southern track possibility is pretty much out of heart and mind,  yeah it's a crappy track for most areas.   Beyond the initial thump,  looks like the mid/UL are a hair too far north for much of SNE,  nevermind the secondary/triple point.  That ensures a fairly quick dry slot,  maybe a bit quicker than models advertise imo.

[CoastalWx]

Kevin and pickles are almost one now.

I totally envision another MLK redux and a new chapter written in the Tolland screw job chronicles.

[NorEastermass128]

Pretty frustrating to see 850 temps of -2 to -3C on the EURO, but still be too warm to snow.  

[toller65]

GYX 4PM AFD Reasoning on WS Watch Posting, and lack thereof for coastal plain of ME/NH

 

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 8 TO 12 INCH
RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR WESTERN MAINE AND CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EASTERLY UPSLOPE AREAS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
SNOWFALL. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IN DETERMINING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW PERIODICALLY CHANGING TO RAIN. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CHANGE TO RAIN OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
OF MAINE AS TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. AND EVEN IF
PRECIPITATION DOES STAY AS SNOW... WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING IT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE. HOWEVER... GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED... THERE IS ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR INTERIOR WESTERN
MAINE AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE WATCH BROADLY OUTLINES THE
AREA EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 8 TO 12 INCHES. AREAS OUTSIDE THE WATCH
MAY RECEIVE 6 OR MORE INCHES... BUT CONSIDERING THE LONG DURATION
OF THE SNOW STORM (36+ HOURS) AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND LOWER
ACCUMULATIONS... THESE AREAS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. FURTHER ENHANCEMENTS TO THE SNOWFALL FORECAST CAN BE
MADE AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER AND DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

 

[moneypitmike]

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

 

That's a beautiful thing.  Hope you can share some of that with your breathren to your SW.

[Damage In Tolland]

Kevin and pickles are almost one now.

I totally envision another MLK redux and a new chapter written in the Tolland screw job chronicles.

Troll fail since this morning you said 2-4 then ice and guidance trended substantially colder today.

[ORH_wxman]

I thought you said euro ens didn't even get it to Mass border? I thought NAm was cold enough for a paster?

 

 

How does that equate to you being all snow? You get front end thumped and flip on both solutions. Euro ensembles are closer to keeping you all snow, but still don't do it.

[CoastalWx]

Troll fail since this morning you said 2-4 then ice and guidance trended substantially colder today.

You may rot with rain and drizzle while Will and Megan are drinking hot chocolate together...walking through the snow and giggling like an Abercrombie commercial.

[Tropopause_Fold]

You may rot with rain and drizzle while Will and Megan are drinking hot chocolate together...walking through the snow and giggling like an Abercrombie commercial.

[Brian5671]

You may rot with rain and drizzle while Will and Megan are drinking hot chocolate together...walking through the snow and giggling like an Abercrombie commercial.

[HoarfrostHubb]

You may rot with rain and drizzle while Will and Megan are drinking hot chocolate together...walking through the snow and giggling like an Abercrombie commercial.

Will you be taking Bryce up MQE in a 34F rainer?

[Tropopause_Fold]

for the folks on the wrong side of this one, obviously myself included, this will be frustrating to watch as the 2nd half of the event may be painfully slow to evolve. that is, many of us could be twiddling our thumbs for a solid 36 hours staring at our thermometers ticking upward while Dendrite et al are high-fiving on their snow mobiles and helping out the NH DOT. 

[Lava Rock]

It looks a lot like yesterdays.........

 

Guess i will snomobile into work..

damn, we'll be buried. will be riding hard this wknd

[Damage In Tolland]

You may rot with rain and drizzle while Will and Megan are drinking hot chocolate together...walking through the snow and giggling like an Abercrombie commercial.

You give so many different forecasts I never which ones are legit .

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Yeah he's really lost it to blame it on spring mode. We've all seen deep cold this time of year but not now.

 

lol.  Pete drove me nuts when i lived in Boston but I still watched him because he's a decent Met.  I always found my forecast somewhere through a blend of him, Harv and Barry B. He's always been the most conservative of the Boston Mets as far as late season storms go. 

[Damage In Tolland]

for the folks on the wrong side of this one, obviously myself included, this will be frustrating to watch as the 2nd half of the event may be painfully slow to evolve. that is, many of us could be twiddling our thumbs for a solid 36 hours staring at our thermometers ticking upward while Dendrite et al are high-fiving on their snow mobiles and helping out the NH DOT.

Youve still got he ULL snows in Thursday into Friday. So even though you miss out on our front end snow at least you get a couple from that as the Ull slides south of LI

[HoarfrostHubb]

No watches from BOX yet....

[weatherMA]

Pete is hilarious. Isn't there a good high in place?

 

@ryhevey @RyanBretonWX Models hardly ever have a good read on the cold this early in this kind of sit. Damming is missing w/out a high.