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Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

LOL so an east wind means we are in spring mode? Yeah we never have issues in the dead of winter with east winds. What a meatball.

yeah it's just dumb. 30 knots of ESE flow in Jan would do the same thing. you never want a secondary cutting N/S across NJ and a HP to our ENE. forget all the other stuff, it's just a crappy track. lol.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Just curious Will but if consensus is for >1" QPF  and the Euro and ens are so cold, wouldn't you expect E. Franklin Co to have one too? 

 

 

Yeah they'll prob put all of Franklin county in the watch...they often will keep eastern Hamden and Hampshire counties out though if it is marginal.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Lot of users don't use the FRH (FOUS) grid, but because I grew up with them, I know how to use them and what the numbers in the grid mean.  

 

anyway, the FOUS has cooled some and moved up the precip by 3-6 hours.  It's suggesting a there is likely to be a band of very heavy snow from SW Mass to FIT or perhaps even Lowell

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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yeah it's just dumb. 30 knots of ESE flow in Jan would do the same thing. you never want a secondary cutting N/S across NJ and a HP to our ENE. forget all the other stuff, it's just a crappy track. lol.

Ugh, I feel like going on a rant. Such horrible forecasts put out by people who should know better.

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free_man

free_man

Posted
Posted

yeah it's just dumb. 30 knots of ESE flow in Jan would do the same thing. you never want a secondary cutting N/S across NJ and a HP to our ENE. forget all the other stuff, it's just a crappy track. lol.

Now that the more southern track possibility is pretty much out of heart and mind,  yeah it's a crappy track for most areas.   Beyond the initial thump,  looks like the mid/UL are a hair too far north for much of SNE,  nevermind the secondary/triple point.  That ensures a fairly quick dry slot,  maybe a bit quicker than models advertise imo.

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toller65

toller65

Posted
Posted

GYX 4PM AFD Reasoning on WS Watch Posting, and lack thereof for coastal plain of ME/NH

 

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 8 TO 12 INCH
RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR WESTERN MAINE AND CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EASTERLY UPSLOPE AREAS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
SNOWFALL. A COMPLICATING FACTOR IN DETERMINING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW PERIODICALLY CHANGING TO RAIN. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO CHANGE TO RAIN OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
OF MAINE AS TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. AND EVEN IF
PRECIPITATION DOES STAY AS SNOW... WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING IT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE. HOWEVER... GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED... THERE IS ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR INTERIOR WESTERN
MAINE AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE WATCH BROADLY OUTLINES THE
AREA EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 8 TO 12 INCHES. AREAS OUTSIDE THE WATCH
MAY RECEIVE 6 OR MORE INCHES... BUT CONSIDERING THE LONG DURATION
OF THE SNOW STORM (36+ HOURS) AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND LOWER
ACCUMULATIONS... THESE AREAS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. FURTHER ENHANCEMENTS TO THE SNOWFALL FORECAST CAN BE
MADE AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER AND DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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I thought you said euro ens didn't even get it to Mass border? I thought NAm was cold enough for a paster?

 

 

How does that equate to you being all snow? You get front end thumped and flip on both solutions. Euro ensembles are closer to keeping you all snow, but still don't do it.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
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for the folks on the wrong side of this one, obviously myself included, this will be frustrating to watch as the 2nd half of the event may be painfully slow to evolve. that is, many of us could be twiddling our thumbs for a solid 36 hours staring at our thermometers ticking upward while Dendrite et al are high-fiving on their snow mobiles and helping out the NH DOT. 

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

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Yeah he's really lost it to blame it on spring mode. We've all seen deep cold this time of year but not now.

 

lol.  Pete drove me nuts when i lived in Boston but I still watched him because he's a decent Met.  I always found my forecast somewhere through a blend of him, Harv and Barry B. He's always been the most conservative of the Boston Mets as far as late season storms go. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

for the folks on the wrong side of this one, obviously myself included, this will be frustrating to watch as the 2nd half of the event may be painfully slow to evolve. that is, many of us could be twiddling our thumbs for a solid 36 hours staring at our thermometers ticking upward while Dendrite et al are high-fiving on their snow mobiles and helping out the NH DOT.

Youve still got he ULL snows in Thursday into Friday. So even though you miss out on our front end snow at least you get a couple from that as the Ull slides south of LI
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