Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

[ORH_wxman]

 

Man, the Euro is just pure winter fun. 

 

f216.gif

 

I posted in the pattern thread that it looked like it was run from Ray's computer.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  

I posted in the pattern thread that it looked like it was run from Ray's computer.

 

From one weenie to another, verbatim, would that surpass the Blizzard we just had?

[dryslot]

one of those ripping ene winds in late Feb over a cold dome that produce biggies. I will not throw out analogs because you hate that but Jeffafa would like the one I am thinking of.

 

I know which one you are referring to, Great month, And end to a decade

[ORH_wxman]

 

From one weenie to another, verbatim, would that surpass the Blizzard we just had?

 

None of the storms on the Euro would, but the collection of them would be something pretty amazing...esp back this way where it smokes us in the 2/27 event.

[HoarfrostHubb]

This has been such an enjoyable (and sometimes frustrating, too) last few weeks. To think it continues for another week or more is quite pleasing.

[Typhoon Tip]

  

None of the storms on the Euro would, but the collection of them would be something pretty amazing...esp back this way where it smokes us in the 2/27 event.

 

You know what is interesting, Will - 

 

Scott and I have discussed this in the past, re that incredible 2 to 3 week period in mid May to early June, 2005, when 3 consecutive Nor'easters took place in pulses, where it was always drizzly and mist in between; but when they blew they blew with 55mph wind gusts as far west as Middlesex Co, and dumped 2 inches per.   There was this permanent cut off locked into the MA, and whenever it almost filled, a new piece of N stream impulse would dump in and recharge the thing all over again..rinse, repeat. 

 

I have always wondered if that could happen more in the winter;   heh, this run seems to confirm an attempt.  

[toronto blizzard]

I know this is the wrong forum for me to be posting in but what does the euro have for my area with the 27 th event?

[Amped]

Upstream flow is amazingly similar to sandy. Nao block retrogrades and merges with the quebec ridge.

[Typhoon Tip]

I know this is the wrong forum for me to be posting in but what does the euro have for my area with the 27 th event?

 

 

The mid levels evolve so spatially massive in time that you almost don't have to be directly impacted by any given pulsed event ...embedded in the 4 day evolution of that anomaly. You could have general instability stuff around, flow down the St Lawrence ...what have you meso/local studies type stuff too.  It's all there...and probably impossible to pin down at this range.  Except to say that you should at least get something - 

[CoastalWx]

What a signal on the ensembles.

[wxeyeNH]

  

On the Euro...yes. Well not really CNE, more NNE. Anywhere from CON southward still does ok in CNE. But that would be a noose tying run for Plymouth.

I just reead this and can't figure out what this means????   Could you just explain in plain English for us simpletons!  Thanks

[Damage In Tolland]

What a signal on the ensembles.

Straight out and curved to the right a little?

[CoastalWx]

Straight out and curved to the right a little?

 

Just straight out through walls.

[Typhoon Tip]

Straight out and curved to the right a little?

 

 

No, much bigger than what you are looking at -

[tamarack]

 

I just reead this and can't figure out what this means????   Could you just explain in plain English for us simpletons!  Thanks

To me, it means that NNE (except maybe for the Greens upslope) gets teased again. Charlie Brown winds up on his back once more, while Lucy snickers.

[ORH_wxman]

 

 

To me, it means that NNE (except maybe for the Greens upslope) gets teased again. Charlie Brown winds up on his back once more, while Lucy snickers.

 

Yes it gives very little QPF north of CON. Ensembles though are much juicier and look good for CNE/NNE.

[Heisy]

  

It has a lot fo similarities to Dec '92...that storm is like the Holy Grail around here so I never actually try to directly make an anlog like that, but the whole way it cuts off and gets compressed from the north a bit by the downstream pseudo block.

It gives NNE like no precip...like Dec '92. High is in similar spot. both the high and low aren't nearly as strong though as '92.

 

 

Wow, I just took a look at 92' 500mb on archive sites...pretty similar man good find. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Yes it gives very little QPF north of CON. Ensembles though are much juicier and look good for CNE/NNE.

So ens hit all of NewEng then?

[CoastalWx]

So ens hit all of NewEng then?

 

You've become the new Pickles.

[CoastalWx]

So ens hit all of NewEng then?

 

They have a low east of us and then redevelops to our s and se. We all have a chance. The question remains whether the storm late next week is snow or rain to snow for you.

[Damage In Tolland]

You've become the new Pickles.

Well we appreciate all the mets input but to avoid so many questions from diff regions if we laid it out by region like Dendritey does it would really help

[Heisy]

On the day 6 threat the EURO showed the rebirth of the wave out west that was missing on the 00z and previous runs....I wonder if that kicker almost helps push the storm farther east and in a better position for you guys. 

[MJO812]

So ens hit all of NewEng then?

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS240.gif

[Kaner587]

On the day 6 threat the EURO showed the rebirth of the wave out west that was missing on the 00z and previous runs....I wonder if that kicker almost helps push the storm farther east and in a better position for you guys. 

if you compare 00z to 12z you can see that it is indeed the difference between the two solutions. Really forces things further east

[cny rider]

We'd be tying the nooses now here in upstate NY but we're already out of material.

[bobbutts]

 

Mega Omega, can we just get that to fall as snow instead of rain?

[SR Airglow]

How does this look for down here? We start as rain, but do we change over to snow?
On another note, SLK gets nothing/insignificant snows again...... Thank god for snowmaking is all I can say...

-skisheep

[CoolMike]

On the GFSx the low pressure is in the region from days 6 to day 10 (I can't see past day 10 on the site i'm looking at currently).  Is this as strange as it looks to me?  I've only been following the weather with a scientific interest for a few seasons now but I haven't seen an evolution anything like this before.

 

Anyone care to explain roughly whats going on with the evolution of the system in general terms?

 

Thanks for any info!

[Typhoon Tip]

On the GFSx the low pressure is in the region from days 6 to day 10 (I can't see past day 10 on the site i'm looking at currently).  Is this as strange as it looks to me?  I've only been following the weather with a scientific interest for a few seasons now but I haven't seen an evolution anything like this before.

 

Anyone care to explain roughly whats going on with the evolution of the system in general terms?

 

Thanks for any info!

 

 

Wow, loaded question ... and asked as if you expect a simplified version is available.  This situation is very complex; among the more complex you'll see.  

 

I guess the boring way to put it is that the big patterns are converging to cause a big huge deep stationary trough anomaly to set up shop over us, and this feature, should any system came along in the flow, would capture and cause stalling ... or perhaps repeating systems being ingested.   

[CoolMike]

Thanks for above!