Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I don't usually take too much selling on why the valley will underperform. I realize this isn't a true SWFE, but it is sort of acting like one and if so climo suggests a rapid onset of heavy precip and a CAD signature... given the overnight arrival Andy likely good rates, I think we do ok here relatively. Also SE flow doesn't downslope us as badly as ENE.

Valley from Rt 9 N usually does ok in swfe's

[SR Airglow]

Oh wow.. When I was a kid, my uncle had a factory in Saranac Lake.. He used to fly me up there in his twin engine plane.. I remember skiiing a place called Big Tupper.. Dont even know if its still there.. this goes back quite a ways    But what country.. Man!!  And, what snow!!  wow.

Big tupper closed a year or two ago, there's a whole development controversey between owners of a large tract of land up there(including big tupper) who want to develop it into homes and vacation attractions, and the environmentalists, and the ski area was a casualty of it... It's quite the place up there, I spend quite a bit of the summer up there hiking, and then venture up there a weekend or two a month for skiing, and would love to move there full time, but it's not in the near future that's for sure.

 

-skisheep

[eduggs]

I don't usually take too much selling on why the valley will underperform.    I realize this isn't a true SWFE, but it is sort of acting like one and if so climo suggests a rapid onset of heavy precip and a CAD signature... given the overnight arrival and likely good rates, I think we do ok here relatively.  Also SE flow doesn't downslope us as badly as ENE. 

It's not just shadowing, but also the lack of dynamical cooling from upslope.  I don't think your shaddowing is terrible there with a SE wind, but you don't get any help from the terrain.  If the airmass were colder, it wouldn't matter as much.  But this still looks marginal and the dynamical help is needed.  But I think low end warning is attainable. 

 

I think the HV has a stronger downsloping effect with a SE wind.  Guidance has been hitting the elevational effects hard.  I'm hoping it is overblown.  The mesos usually are, but when the globals hit it I worry (although the globals are getting pretty high res these days).

[weathafella]

so is a front end thump off the table for these areas for the most part, in your opinion will

 

i guess i didn't realize with this trending south stuff that E MA out thru 495 was still crapola? seems Bl could be even worse then this last event for that area

 

i mention this because i though i read guidance that show'd a few inches for Boston and this sort of flies in the face of that

Antecedent blows. Same setup next week with much colder air near and it's a different story.

[N. OF PIKE]

Coast is fooked in this.

has been motto all year sans blizzard. I'm prayin for a front end thump 10 miles from shore...

[Ginx snewx]

Antecedent blows. Same setup next week with much colder air near and it's a different story.

yep interior special but oh so close, GGEM Crazy Unk would be, Euro a click away.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Antecedent blows. Same setup next week with much colder air near and it's a different story.

Well, it is late Feb, but hopefully it can trend better for there...

[radarman]

It's not just shadowing, but also the lack of dynamical cooling from upslope.  I don't think your shaddowing is terrible there with a SE wind, but you don't get any help from the terrain.  If the airmass were colder, it wouldn't matter as much.  But this still looks marginal and the dynamical help is needed.  But I think low end warning is attainable. 

 

I think the HV has a stronger downsloping effect with a SE wind.  Guidance has been hitting the elevational effects hard.  I'm hoping it is overblown.  The mesos usually are, but when the globals hit it I worry (although the globals are getting pretty high res these days).

 

Fair point about the airmass.  Banking on the rates obviously, but it's not the worst setup to do that with.  Guess we'll see...

[N. OF PIKE]

yep interior special but oh so close, GGEM Crazy Unk would be, Euro a click away.

ginxy what do the ggem/ukie do that the euro doesn't synopticaly, to get snows closer to coast? I mean scooters is a top met and he says coast is toast but I pray my area can squeak out a few

[free_man]

Hopefully this trends north some to get Northern ME in the action.

[SouthCoastMA]

ginxy what do the ggem/ukie do that the euro doesn't synopticaly, to get snows closer to coast? I mean scooters is a top met and he says coast is toast but I pray my area can squeak out a few

Look where the low pressure is tracking. When has the coast ever capitalized from a situation like this? Regardless of the 850's cooling off, the east winds are going to murder the boundary layer 20-30 miles from the water.

[powderfreak]

I like the N-S oriented hills/ridges for this one in WMA, and ENY. GFS and GGEM are around 2" liquid for 2 day totals. Euro is less but still big. Not excited for the valleys... looks really marginal. And by the time midlevels cool, the surface may be irrevocably torched. CVT looks suspicously dry compared to previous runs. Could be a trend but VT ski country says it's a blip.

It will be bigger in NH/ME but the larger grid on most models won't pick up the sliver of higher QPF running up the east side of the Green Mountain Spine in these events. It's isolated enough that the model graphics tend to blend the down sloping in the CT Valley and the Champlain Valley in the graphics into a giant hole across VT.

This storm will have some wild differences in VT but that's par for the course when you have these big clusters of mountains and spines, and strong H85-H7 winds.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

It will be bigger in NH/ME but the larger grid on most models won't pick up the sliver of higher QPF running up the east side of the Green Mountain Spine in these events. It's isolated enough that the model graphics tend to blend the down sloping in the CT Valley and the Champlain Valley in the graphics into a giant hole across VT.

This storm will have some wild differences in VT but that's par for the course when you have these big clusters of mountains and spines, and strong H85-H7 winds.

 

Vt probably has the most geographic snow fall differentials than any state in NE.  Jackpot zones and snow holes abound.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Interesting that this upcoming event has not garnered nearly the activity of this past one... Less crazy solutions? People gun shy?

[radarman]

It will be bigger in NH/ME but the larger grid on most models won't pick up the sliver of higher QPF running up the east side of the Green Mountain Spine in these events. It's isolated enough that the model graphics tend to blend the down sloping in the CT Valley and the Champlain Valley in the graphics into a giant hole across VT.

This storm will have some wild differences in VT but that's par for the course when you have these big clusters of mountains and spines, and strong H85-H7 winds.

 

It'll be interesting to see even on Mansfield where the jackpots are with SE flow.  Not the normal spots/aspects I'm guessing. 

[dryslot]

Hopefully this trends north some to get Northern ME in the action.

They will get some from this

[eduggs]

It will be bigger in NH/ME but the larger grid on most models won't pick up the sliver of higher QPF running up the east side of the Green Mountain Spine in these events. It's isolated enough that the model graphics tend to blend the down sloping in the CT Valley and the Champlain Valley in the graphics into a giant hole across VT.

This storm will have some wild differences in VT but that's par for the course when you have these big clusters of mountains and spines, and strong H85-H7 winds.

Nice explanation.  I think the summits will have good 2 day totals by Thursday.  But guidance has been shifting the deep lift a little south over the past few runs.

[PWMan]

Interesting that this upcoming event has not garnered nearly the activity of this past one... Less crazy solutions? People gun shy?

Easy: There haven't been any model runs showing big snow totals for the major coastal population centers.

 

* Edit: Not sure if you're referring to media or board activity, but I think the explanation is pretty much the same since the center of gravity on this board is decidedly eastern SNE.

[N. OF PIKE]

Look where the low pressure is tracking. When has the coast ever capitalized from a situation like this? Regardless of the 850's cooling off, the east winds are going to murder the boundary layer 20-30 miles from the water.

well to be fair i'm talking more the 128 corridor over down thru PVD interior SW RI , not immediate coastal areas i didn't think they stood a shot

[Quincy]

One ingredient we have that's slightly better than the last "storm" and that's high pressure placement. Not ideal, but improved.

[SlantStick]

Point and click has 6-10 here tomorrow night thru Wed. Seems a little generous. I just lost two  trees that split from the heavy wet 12" we got yesterday.

[N. OF PIKE]

i'm wondering with a secondary so far SW, if the qpf is really focused on W SNE , even west of ORH .  gefs members don't get much preicp up toward 495 in NE mass throughout 1pm wed, would that depend on evolution of 2'ndary over delmarva v. more of a triple point

 

if the 0c line tickle's south again i wonder if ktolland could wind up doing better than orh since tolland has the longitude and could be closer to qpf

 

i'd like the ULL to tickle se, i think lol

[powderfreak]

It'll be interesting to see even on Mansfield where the jackpots are with SE flow. Not the normal spots/aspects I'm guessing.

Yeah we'll the drifting is always much different than the stock NW wind

Depends on the situation obviously but the northern Spine doesn't do as well as south of 89 (MRG/Bush area) in these situations. We still get enough up sloping air running into Mansfield to do ok, but that air has to come from the Whites so its lost some punch. Similar to how MRG/Bush still get upslope on NW flow, just not as much as further north because NW flow goes over the northern Adirondacks to get to that area.

I mean anytime you have moisture getting pushed into 3-4000ft of pure vertical relief (valleys are all under 1kft) it will precipitate appreciably, but there may just be less moisture to wring out depending on what that air traveled over previously.

The BTV WRF will do a great job highlighting this but it will go a little overboard like the mesos tend to.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Easy: There haven't been any model runs showing big snow totals for the major coastal population centers.

 

* Edit: Not sure if you're referring to media or board activity, but I think the explanation is pretty much the same since the center of gravity on this board is decidedly eastern SNE.

 

Hey not fair I didn't post much for either system as I thought they were essentially non-events in the CP...these ones are for you guys to enjoy.

 

  I did have hope for SE areas with the wrap down trough but that fizzled beyond an inch or so last night.  I just can't get excited over these weird systems that produce 1/2 to 3 or 4" in a random manner.  Looking forward to next week with the return to real systems.

[radarman]

Yeah we'll the drifting is always much different than the stock NW wind

Depends on the situation obviously but the northern Spine doesn't do as well as south of 89 (MRG/Bush area) in these situations. We still get enough up sloping air running into Mansfield to do ok, but that air has to come from the Whites so its lost some punch. Similar to how MRG/Bush still get upslope on NW flow, just not as much as further north because NW flow goes over the northern Adirondacks to get to that area.

I mean anytime you have moisture getting pushed into 3-4000ft of pure vertical relief (valleys are all under 1kft) it will precipitate appreciably, but there may just be less moisture to wring out depending on what that air traveled over previously.

 

 

Agreed.  I'm not expecting more than like 3-6" for MRG/Bush from the main storm, and maybe another 6-10" through Friday from the U/L low.  That's a far cry from the 15-30" the MRG blog is calling for though. 

[Bostonseminole]

WSW going up?

[Quincy]

18z NAM a half-tick cooler at 850mb. Shows KTOL getting plastered by moderate/heavy snow and about 33F at 12z Wed.

[NorEastermass128]

WSW going up?

Maybe for Northern ORH north and west. Another wasted opportunity here.

[N. OF PIKE]

12z ggem has ULL centerd Sw of 0z position at 12z wednesday...i wonder if that is the main differene with regard to the colder solution

[MaineJayhawk]

Is Quincy getting paid per KTOL mention?