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Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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wow, the GGEM is like 40 straight hours of moderate snow N of the CT/RI borders with MA, and probably all kinds of icing/sleet headaches between there and the South coast.  

 

E wind should bring marine contamination into the CP for MA and the south coast... 

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

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Right on the heels of him b**ching all week how this past storm was gonna be too suppressed. :lol:

 

 

Reverse psychology FTW this winter. Kevin's pessimism on the blizzard started the trend.

Yes he said the wednesday storm just before the blizzard was going to be worse.  I was accused of humping HPC (accurately I'd add) for pointing out that they had a big storm near the benchmark for like 5 days in a row.

 

And we have been suffering up north until the other day.  Jeff was coming off of a very severe meltdown in early February and he just wasn't right in the head yet.  I think he's back....

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

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This could be a nasty, nasty event for a lot of the interior... perhaps a 2nd season-defining system if things work out right, but not for any blizzard, but high impact multi-threat. 

 

00Z

This could be a 2-4" of snow, then .75" accretion in icing, followed by 12 to 18 hours of steady light to moderate snow resulting in 6-10" - that's what the 00z GGEM looked like...

 

The NOGAPS kept it snow N of the Pike for 36 straight hours!  

 

The Euro was less impact but similar distribution of p-types...   

 

NAM is June in a -NAO so can't conceptually be trusted, although the 12z desperately tried to cool it seemed. 

 

GFS ...blah blah blah

 

Just in general, this is an odd one.  It's a bundle of deep layer dynamics that gets caught up in the nadir of the NAO, and thus gets "trapped" so to speak, where the system's spatial-temporal evolution becomes more depended on the NAO time-span.   This makes for a very long, long system - 

 

12z suite should be interesting... 

I'm seriously rooting for snow to continue into Thursday night so i can actually be back stateside when its happening.  Do you think there is a shot of another period of snow thurs night or fri

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

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slowly getting interested but well see

wow, the GGEM is like 40 straight hours of moderate snow N of the CT/RI borders with MA, and probably all kinds of icing/sleet headaches between there and the South coast.  

 

E wind should bring marine contamination into the CP for MA and the south coast... 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Right on the heels of him b**ching all week how this past storm was gonna be too suppressed. :lol:

Reverse psychology FTW this winter. Kevin's pessimism on the blizzard started the trend.

We will be lucky to see any flakes for the rest of the winter up here...specifically at elevation in the northern Greens.

(thank you reverse pyschology gods).

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

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wow, the GGEM is like 40 straight hours of moderate snow N of the CT/RI borders with MA, and probably all kinds of icing/sleet headaches between there and the South coast.  

 

E wind should bring marine contamination into the CP for MA and the south coast... 

 

i would much rather be living back in framingham for this.

 

i lose some latitude but i hate hate hate torch'd BL from marine taint ....f'n hate it.  i really like how where i was in framingham would often (2 events that winter lol) stay around 30-31 when natick was near 33 or so.

 

 

how strong is the penetration of marine air from the east looking on this thing wed pm. given trends/intensity etc

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I'm seriously rooting for snow to continue into Thursday night so i can actually be back stateside when its happening.  Do you think there is a shot of another period of snow thurs night or fri

 

It almost visualizes going down this way:

42 to 54 hours out, rad begins to fill in from SW -NE through New England, with a decent IB snow wall but not moving very fast, because the whole storm evolution is again ... collocated with the evolution of the NAO, timing -wise.     

 

At about hour 54   ... places south of the Mass Turnpike transition to sleet and ZR, while area between the Pike and the Mohawk Trail get some chicken knuckles and pingers mixed in.  But the  snow growth in this may not be ideal across the duration, so it may be bursty and shredded at times...  Then at about 66 hours, there is a bit more coalesced circulation near ACK and what mix contentions there are collapse pretty quickly and there may even be an as yet, poorly modeled kind of CCB consolidating rad into a solid shield of moderate snow - in no hurry to leave either.   Just sort of snows from 66 to hour 80 or so or longer even...  

 

That could be real nasty in CT ... 2-4" of snow with potential warning ice, then back to moderate snow...  

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

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It almost visualizes going down this way:

42 to 54 hours out, rad begins to fill in from SW -NE through New England, with a decent IB snow wall but not moving very fast, because the whole storm evolution is again ... collocated in time with the evolution of the NAO timing -wise.     

 

At about hour 54   ... places south of the Mass Turnpike transition to sleet and ZR, while area between the Pike and the Mohawk Trail get some chicken knuckles and pingers mixed in.  But the  snow growth in this may not be ideal across the duration, so it may be bursty and shredded at times...  Then at about 66 hours, there is a bit more coalesced circulation near ACK and what mix contentions there are collapse pretty quickly and there may even be an as yet, poorly modeled kind of CCB consolidating rad into a solid shield of moderate snow - in no hurry to leave either.   Just sort of snows from 66 to hour 80 or so or longer even...  

u have us salivating

 

lets tickle this thing another lick South.....will -NAO blocking be establish'd by then...if so it's def possible i would guess

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Lol...Euro is frigid. Keeps it all snow north of the MA/CT border.

 

 

Yep -   +PNA and -NAO not denied on this run...  The former delivers a nice diet of energetic impulses, and the NAO won't allow them to go west....  System should evolve more Miller B in time.

 

This is a long duration thing, too - 

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

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It almost visualizes going down this way:

42 to 54 hours out, rad begins to fill in from SW -NE through New England, with a decent IB snow wall but not moving very fast, because the whole storm evolution is again ... collocated with the evolution of the NAO, timing -wise.     

 

At about hour 54   ... places south of the Mass Turnpike transition to sleet and ZR, while area between the Pike and the Mohawk Trail get some chicken knuckles and pingers mixed in.  But the  snow growth in this may not be ideal across the duration, so it may be bursty and shredded at times...  Then at about 66 hours, there is a bit more coalesced circulation near ACK and what mix contentions there are collapse pretty quickly and there may even be an as yet, poorly modeled kind of CCB consolidating rad into a solid shield of moderate snow - in no hurry to leave either.   Just sort of snows from 66 to hour 80 or so or longer even...  

 

That could be real nasty in CT ... 2-4" of snow with potential warning ice, then back to moderate snow...  

In this scenario I likely stay snow from 48-72 hours+ it sounds like.  I'm up around Concord NH.  So a low at ACK Thursday morning, eh?  I like the sound of that.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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In this scenario I likely stay snow from 48-72 hours+ it sounds like.  I'm up around Concord NH.  So a low at ACK Thursday morning, eh?  I like the sound of that.

 

 

Keep in mind....that's what I am visualizing of all this...we'll see.   But in CON, NH?  Snow only I would think.  

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

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Guessing that the QPF shifted SE again on this run?

Two questions: One, how much QPF does SLK see?(I know it's out of the forums area, but it's in the BTV warning area, and the upstate forum is always quiet), and Two, do I start as snow on the EURO, even for a few minutes? Thanks in advance.

 

-skisheep

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