Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

[Baroclinic Zone]

12Z GFS has cooled some but still has the 0c 850 mile up to the CT/MA border before precip even breaks out.

[Tropopause_Fold]

at first glance, GFS is a really nice thump N of the Pike...850 0C line stalls at the MA/CT border for like 6 hours.

[Baroclinic Zone]

12Z GFS has cooled some but still has the 0c 850 mile up to the CT/MA border before precip even breaks out.

0c 850 line holding thru 18z Wed.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

12Z GFS has cooled some but still has the 0c 850 mile up to the CT/MA border before precip even breaks out.

drops back down south at onset of precip though

[SR Airglow]

A certain someone in Tolland is not going to like this GFS run.... Looks warm atleast in CT, north of the CT/MA line should see a nice snowfall. Using the 850 line as the rain/snow line, many will be very happy with this run, and a vocal minority not so much...

Add me to the happy camp, nothing for here, plenty for ski country, and what fun is snow if you can't go play in it!

-skisheep

[Ginx snewx]

BLUE HILL in rare territory 1) 65.4 in 1969

2) 51.3 in 2003

3) 45.2 in 1967

4) 40.4 in 1920

5) 39.3 in 2013 (thru Feb. 25)(7 A.M.)

6) 37.0 in 1893

7) 36.0 in 1899

8) 35.3 in 2013

9) 34.7 in 1926,1934

[Baroclinic Zone]

drops back down south at onset of precip though

 

Must be a minimal shift because it looks almost identical between 42-54h.  I'm looking at the PSU images.

[Damage In Tolland]

A certain someone in Tolland is not going to like this GFS run.... Looks warm atleast in CT, north of the CT/MA line should see a nice snowfall. Using the 850 line as the rain/snow line, many will be very happy with this run, and a vocal minority not so much...

Add me to the happy camp, nothing for here, plenty for ski country, and what fun is snow if you can't go play in it!

-skisheep

I could care less what it shows. Honestly doesn't phase me in the least. The only thing one should garner from it is that it continues to cool each run. Substantially so

[ineedsnow]

gfs looking a bit better for here

[Tropopause_Fold]

thursday could be a kind of torchy day as we sit in no-man's land in between the systems. too early to say for sure but kind of stuck under the occlusion - could be mild.  

[ORH_wxman]

GFS def colder than previous runs. Doesn't ever get the 850 0C line to the NH border until basically the dryslot is punched through. .

[SR Airglow]

I could care less what it shows. Honestly doesn't phase me in the least. The only thing one should garner from it is that it continues to cool each run. Substantially so

True, the trend is important, and I think you do see a 2-4" maybe 5" front end, but it's just another way that this could go wrong. I'm riding the EURO all the way though...

 

-skisheep

[Tropopause_Fold]

GFS def colder than previous runs. Doesn't ever get the 850 0C line to the NH border until basically the dryslot is punched through. .

nice event for you. the euro snow maps, fwiw...were 12"+ for you. LOL.

[Damage In Tolland]

nice event for you. the euro snow maps, fwiw...were 12"+ for you. LOL.

Do you know what they had for other areas of SnE? BOS? BDL?

[ineedsnow]

I would love to lock this!!!

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p24&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_093_precip_p24.gif

[ORH_wxman]

12z Ukie is up to its old tricks...another very cold run like 00z. Keeps it cold enough for snow throughout north of the MA/CT border and perhaps even far N CT/RI...sans BL issues of course near the coast.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Do you know what they had for other areas of SnE? BOS? BDL?

looks like it had you around 4 or 5". same for BOS. 

[ineedsnow]

just enough to get excited but close enough to know you can fail!! 

12z Ukie is up to its old tricks...another very cold run like 00z. Keeps it cold enough for snow throughout north of the MA/CT border and perhaps even far N CT/RI...sans BL issues of course near the coast.

[dryslot]

Guys what do you make of GYX having rain up by me and even over to Jeff?  Do you think that is likely?  In here it sounds like all snow up this way.

 

 

I am not real concerned here yet, Its close but i have not checked soundings

[Damage In Tolland]

12z Ukie is up to its old tricks...another very cold run like 00z. Keeps it cold enough for snow throughout north of the MA/CT border and perhaps even far N CT/RI...sans BL issues of course near the coast.

Does the Ukie always verify too cold?

[ORH_wxman]

Does the Ukie always verify too cold?

 

 

Its frequently too cold. I wouldn't say always...sometimes its way west and too amped.

[mahk_webstah]

I am not real concerned here yet, Its close but i have not checked soundings

Perhaps they are just being prudent forecasters in case the warmer solutions verify.  This is probably a smart move.  (did socks every apologize by the way?)  It would seem though that WSWs may need to got up later today if this thing starts tomorrow night, although with uncertainty they could wait until tuesday morn I suppose.

[Cold Miser]

Rain is involved - Don't care at this end, but hope you guys up north of me get hit good again.

[dryslot]

Perhaps they are just being prudent forecasters in case the warmer solutions verify.  This is probably a smart move.  (did socks every apologize by the way?)  It would seem though that WSWs may need to got up later today if this thing starts tomorrow night, although with uncertainty they could wait until tuesday morn I suppose.

 

 

They already have out a hazardous weather statement, My P&C mentions snow/rain, But everything i am seeing so far has trended colder, The immediate coast looks like they will have issues, But does not look like there is a strong push of warmer air, But i have not had time to  look yet, Dealing with some john deere tractor issues that i need to get fixed before weds, Broke a tension cable and the chute broke off that i need to get welded so been chasing parts all morning..................

[bobbutts]

Maybe I'm crazy, but I'd think forecasting snow when there's uncertainty and then switching to rain if it became clear it was rain would be the conservative/prudent forecast.  Calling for the low impact weather and switching to higher (often during the event) is of no use to the public.  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, not the other way around.

[mahk_webstah]

They already have out a hazardous weather statement, My P&C mentions snow/rain, But everything i am seeing so far has trended colder, The immediate coast looks like they will have issues, But does not look like there is a strong push of warmer air, But i have not had time to  look yet, Dealing with some john deere tractor issues that i need to get fixed before weds, Broke a tension cable and the chute broke off that i need to get welded so been chasing parts all morning..................

I'd say getting equipment ready for a nice storm is generally a good problem to have.  The afternoon discussion from GYX today should give us a good indication of where they think this is headed.  Weekend of riding coming up..

[mahk_webstah]

Maybe I'm crazy, but I'd think forecasting snow when there's uncertainty and then switching to rain if it became clear it was rain would be the conservative/prudent forecast.  Calling for the low impact weather and switching to higher (often during the event) is of no use to the public.  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, not the other way around.

For us the forecast should probably say.  "Snow developing early Wednesday, possibly mixing with or changing to rain.  Significant accumulations possible."

[dryslot]

I'd say getting equipment ready for a nice storm is generally a good problem to have.  The afternoon discussion from GYX today should give us a good indication of where they think this is headed.  Weekend of riding coming up..

 

Already planned, Probably will do the weds night club ride for dinner this week

[dendrite]

For us the forecast should probably say. "Snow developing early Wednesday, possibly mixing with or changing to rain. Significant accumulations possible."

I'm not worried about rain at this point.

[mahk_webstah]

I'm not worried about rain at this point.

that is very comforting.  snowpack building fast.  maybe we get more thurs/fri/sat.