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Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

I know it's the NAM but it argues for more of a quick wintry thump for southern areas as well.. maybe 6 hours of snow/sleet then freezing drizzle after..

 

Has that look to it.  Warm front blasts through eventually, all the way up into SNH.  NAM is going to crush the ME foothills.  Nice flow at 700mb into the ME coast.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

I think because it looks better for some, and worse for others.. I didn't think this storm had any chance to produce frozen precip over my area yesterday, now trends today show that we might have a little snow/sleet

I don't think there is any misinterpretation going on with the NAM.  Looks like a few hours of frozen precip for the southern portion of SNE transitioning to rain.  The further N you go, the longer it takes to transition.  Looks like that line makes if up to the NH border based on the 850 0C line.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

I think because it looks better for some, and worse for others.. I didn't think this storm had any chance to produce frozen precip over my area yesterday, now trends today show that we might have a little snow/sleet

Yeah trends for south coast are certainly better than they were. Until proven otherwise its best to use the Euro for any forecasts now , which a solid 2-5 inch thump interior SNE and maybe 4-7 pike north ending as ice and going back to snow/ snow showers Wed nite thru Friday
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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

I think because it looks better for some, and worse for others.. I didn't think this storm had any chance to produce frozen precip over my area yesterday, now trends today show that we might have a little snow/sleet

well i have nothing to gain/lose on this one - looked the same IMBY. lol. 

 

it's a tricky set-up with the low-level warming coming in from the SE. not as classic as we usually see. most places away from the shore would get some frozen i'm sure on that run...but looks like the best would be NW CT into the Berks and GC region etc before shifting N. 

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

well i have nothing to gain/lose on this one - looked the same IMBY. lol. 

 

it's a tricky set-up with the low-level warming coming in from the SE. not as classic as we usually see. most places away from the shore would get some frozen i'm sure on that run...but looks like the best would be NW CT into the Berks and GC region etc before shifting N. 

The H is not in a great locale to really lock in the low level cold imo.  I don't see fzra/sleet as a huge player in this.  Brief, sure but I think this is a snow to rain scenario for a lot of the SNE folks.  Best spots to be in SNE will be the ORH hills and the Berks.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

The H is not in a great locale to really lock in the low level cold imo.  I don't see fzra/sleet as a huge player in this.  Brief, sure but I think this is a snow to rain scenario for a lot of the SNE folks.  Best spots to be in SNE will be the ORH hills and the Berks.

the HP isn't bad...it's not all that strong but it could certainly be worse. the trick, imo, will really be when/where the secondary gets going and tracks. it could lock in LL cold for a good chunk of the interior if it takes a better track. we'll just have to see. the block is strong and the HP really doesn't go anywhere so that's favorable. just sucks the primary is so strong and far west.  

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Doesn't it actually help us with the primary being so far west? Doesn't that sort of negate the warming to some degree rather than having it be farther east where it would be easier to erode the cold?

well it's not like it's running up into the northern/western lakes. it's coming up the OV and into W OH/Lower Lakes region. 

 

the set-up is kind of funky. has some favorable aspects and some crappy ones. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

NCEP guidance continues to be warmer than the foreign guidance....though the 12z NAM did cool some in terms of how far north the 850 0C line gets...only barely gets past the NH border now whereas 06z brought it up just N of MHT.

I see a lot of folks using the H85 freezing line as the rain/snow line, is that the warmest layer?

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Digityman

Digityman

Posted
Posted

Nam would be 12+

 

Looking good so far.  I'm getting confused with the timing.  I know it can vary every run but what are we looking at this week as of this morning? 

 

The one on this thread is Wed night / Thursday morning.

Is there another change for something over the weekend?  

(Sorry, I have family coming up Thursday afternoon - just trying to plan ahead)

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I see a lot of folks using the H85 freezing line as the rain/snow line, is that the warmest layer?

 

 

Yes it is...or close enough. If this was more of a pure SWFe, the warmest layer would probably be closer to 800mb or even 775mb. But the mid-level flow is more out of the SE/ESE.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

I see a lot of folks using the H85 freezing line as the rain/snow line, is that the warmest layer?

i don't have access to euro 800 mb temps but on the NAM, there's actually a pretty big punch of at or >0C air at 800 mb way into CNE pretty far in advance. tough to say whether that would actually verify though. wouldn't surprise me if that were overdone. 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Looking good so far.  I'm getting confused with the timing.  I know it can vary every run but what are we looking at this week as of this morning? 

 

The one on this thread is Wed night / Thursday morning.

Is there another change for something over the weekend?  

(Sorry, I have family coming up Thursday afternoon - just trying to plan ahead)

On my phone so I won't be able to look until I get back to the office

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toller65

toller65

Posted
Posted

HPC Discussion from 425AM:

 

ON DAY 3...A TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE VICINITY OF LONG
ISLAND AND MOVES NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.  THE LOW
ENHANCES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ONSHORE FLOW COMING INTO MAINE.
HOWEVER...THE STRONG EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW ALSO INCREASES THE
CHANCE OF WARMER AIR MOVING INLAND...SO THE HEAVY SNOW AND ICING
THREAT IS FOCUSED AWAY FROM THE COAST INLAND INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN ME AND THEN INTO THE GREEN AND ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS.  THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET INDUCES MINIMA IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS THE
CT RIVER VALLEY.  THE SOUTHEAST FLOW FAVORS HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN ME/WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NH...AND THE HIGHEST
RISKS ARE SHOWN HERE...WHERE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THE
LONGEST VS COASTAL AREAS.
 

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

Posted
Posted

lol RPM shows 3-5" of snow for SW CT and 2-4" for most of SNE with 6"+ in the litchfield hills and Worcester Hills..

Lock it please! :)

Again, the over under on this here(stamford) is one flake, if I see snow, I'll be happy. Good news is that Lake Placid should get a nice hit, and then light snow for days after, could easily be a foot+ for the weekend all combined.

 

-skisheep

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