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Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

850WIND-13.gif

 

Pretty strong easterly and southerly component to the LLJ as it lifts northward. No wonder the models are already doing things like this...

 

 

Just an example of the omega in the lowest 5 km. I tried to cut the cross section nearest MWN as I could. So that relief you see in the middle of the image is roughly the Presidentials. You can see the NAM in blue and GFS is orange are both showing a pretty strong signal for upslope enhanced vertical velocities around that 00z Thursday time frame. The higher res NAM12 has it nearly double the GFS magnitude, but that makes sense as you go from 40 km to 12 km grid spacing.

 

I do like how it's not a pure SWFE type event, where southwesterlies can tap significant warmth. This mid level flow will be more easterly or southeasterly as the low pressure gets squashed and redevelops eastward. There will be warmth aloft to tap, but it will be closer to neutral advection than strongly warm advection. The haves versus the have nots again. The easterly flow will help elevations dynamically cool in the upslope regime, but it will also help bring boundary layer warmth in off the water. So I would think you want to be up, north, and west, in that order (not on the wrong side of the high terrain of course ;) ).

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
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I'm not very excited about this.  A few inches overnight tomorrow.  But, even if we can keep p-type for a while as sn/ip (think sn or rn will be more likely), the marginal temp and the strong solar will inhibit accumulations.  But, it will still be nice to get some more snow before that happens.

 

25.5/23

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jsw

jsw

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I'm not very excited about this.  A few inches overnight tomorrow.  But, even if we can keep p-type for a while as sn/ip (think sn or rn will be more likely), the marginal temp and the strong solar will inhibit accumulations.  But, it will still be nice to get some more snow before that happens.

 

25.5/23

 

This is disappointing. I totally trust your judgment just from reading your posts over the years, and we have close to the same climatology. My latitude is not much greater than yours, and I'm only at about elevation 300 feet on the CT River. One would hope that with four days of precip, we'd get a foot...I hope things change for the better.

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jsw

jsw

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Yep... ULLs bring days and days of snow.  The NWS forecast is starting to show that...

 

 

attachicon.gifsnowforecast.JPG

 

Hey Powderfreak, I get up to Burlington fairly regularly to visit family and snowboard. I also know people at Burton and Rome Snowboards going way back. Went to Stowe a few times, and have been to just about every mountain in N.H. and VT. I'll be up there the weekend of March 16th, but we're going to Bolton Valley because my brother's kids have passes there. It would be cool to take some runs together sometime. Don't worry, I snowboard, but have every confidence in the world that I could keep up with you guys. Been at it for 20 years (raced skis in High School - Newton North, next to Boston - Suburban League Champs!)

 

Edit to add - might squeeze a day in at Jay Peak, too, VT resident discount. That's probably my favorite mtn in New England. I've been all over Colorado and Squaw Valley too, when I lived in San Francisco for five years in the late 1990s.

 

BTW, you'd probably be interested in this. My brother is Creative Director at Select Design in Burlington (http://www.selectdesign.com). Clients include Burton, Ben & Jerry's, U.S. Skiing/Snowboarding, Green Mountain Coffee, Timberland, Cannondale and many, many others. He's kicking butt!

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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I think its similiar to last night where hills and your lat get accums at night Wed and Thurs nites

I dunno, unless we can get more of an inv trough look to focus snow could be tough...ESP with daytime heating. Not the coldest atmosphere. I hope the gfs could be right but who knows. Let's hope something comes next week too.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
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This is disappointing. I totally trust your judgment just from reading your posts over the years, and we have close to the same climatology. My latitude is not much greater than yours, and I'm only at about elevation 300 feet on the CT River. One would hope that with four days of precip, we'd get a foot...I hope things change for the better.

 

Well--I said "inhibit", not "prohibit" fwiw.

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adk

adk

Posted
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Yep... ULLs bring days and days of snow.  The NWS forecast is starting to show that...

 

 

attachicon.gifsnowforecast.JPG

Going to be great for the ADK, Greens and whites. Gonna be one of those stretches where stations above 2500 feet get a 5 day stretch like of like 4", 3", 4", 2", 4", 1".  Quietly a foot and a half of great snow builds up.  Love these patterns.   

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