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Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
  On 2/27/2013 at 12:07 AM, OceanStWx said:

It's not a problem. They're the same questions we deal with daily from the public.

You'll learn in time what a pain it can be to work within political boundaries when forecasting. Making the snowfall map is relatively easy, turning it into a WaWa map is a totally different story.

It makes sense...and I know like BTV deals with it all the time in meso-scale upslope, and the BUF with lake effect. You can put entire counties in warnings knowing that one half may be partly cloudy while another side of it is snowing whiteout with plows not able to keep up.

Its probably better to over-prepare people if these significant events are happening in a given county, even if another side of the county is getting little to no significant weather.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
  On 2/27/2013 at 12:39 AM, cpick79 said:

precip is rocketing up the mid atlantic coast .....i mean flying

 

look at that line of storms approaching raleigh, nc

 

I'm not looking at surface obs, but I imagine the radar must be synched pretty close to ground truth as the DP depressions aren't that great.

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free_man

free_man

Posted
Posted
  On 2/26/2013 at 11:49 PM, Ginxy said:

Birv is another one who downplays and ends up being more

maybe, but marginal setups require some caution. What is expected qpf? I am expecting .8 to 1.1 and with low ratios andb said marginal airmass, 4 to 9 sounds okay.
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ChrisM

ChrisM

Posted
Posted
  On 2/27/2013 at 1:12 AM, CT Rain said:

36/24 here.we will at least start as frozen lol

Gfs looks good... Hopefully the gfs/euro blend holds.

 

nice dude.  My girlfriend is student teaching in Hartford for the last semester of her masters year and asked me if she was going to have a snow day tomorrow. I had to explain to her that Hartford in the CT RV isn't exactly gonna hold the cold lol.

 

 

 

 

34/25 here with -5 850s overhead.  Hopefully we can get a good thump of 3 or 4 inches before the inevitable change.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

given the now cast trends i think it's time for someone to put some balls on the line. granted  no one thinks much of my balls but i will do so regardless.

 

now cast observations

 

precip is rocketing up coast....it is hvy off of Delmarva and S jersey and it's also consolidating nicely over NNJ/NYC /W LI/SW CT  and moving mostly NNE .

 

mod/hvy rates are breaking out as far N as danbury ct right now

 

Areas like Chris M's house are prolly gonna get rock'd (6-10)

 

This is an elevation event in SNE

 

things i'll be watching for

 

Wether hvy precip expand more N / NNE/ or NE over next cpl  hours

 

if it expands more NE then areas like tolland could get into the mod/to hvy stuff as soon as 10pm ....well ahead of schd. if this occurs they could see a warning level snow fall. (esp AOA 800')

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
Posted

havent looked outside by i hear pingers on my window.. at 700'+  elevation although i wish there was a better way to see how accurate that is, I am really high up and do very very well in elevation events here... although this time i might be too far south to get any accumulation.. will look out after dinner.. 

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