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Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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We seem to have a nice orderly arrangement in events for the next 7 days as we enter a pretty remarkable combination of +PNA/-NAO.   

 

In that teleconnector suggested paradigm, we don't tend to roll up big mid level centers very far/too successfully west of New England's longitude as quite obviously, blocking along and above the ~50th parallel prevents that from happening.   Thus, though not a certainty, some southerly track adjustment to the deeper layer vortex from the 25th to the 26th is plausible, and may parlay into more coastal commitment out toward the 27th.  I am better than 50/50 confident it will evolve that way.  

 

That would be a better correlation to climatology for a -2SD and falling NAO regime, particularly then assisted by a steeply sloped, rising PNA, which is multiple guidance type situating an idealized +PNAP construct from the Pacific to the west Atlantic.  The storm track just does not support a GGEM position - as an example.  I have noticed that that last 3 cycles of the oper. GFS has shifted more vort max/carving a bit more east nearing the MA around D6.5, so it may be heading in that corrective direction.   

 

With more Miller B commitment on this next system of interest, this could provide a bit more a classic Nor'easter for the upper MA to SNE, and Maine.  It will be a fascinating system to watch.  The +PNA and -NAO are hugely arguing for more coastal commitment, where the current operational runs "fight" that correlation to varying degrees.   

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Here we see some commitment to a Miller B re-dev. along the SE Coast.   But, we have a clear "blocky" vibe in the mid level structure, and a lower troposphere impressive polar high parked N of Maine, damming down the interior MA.  

 

This is the 120 op. Euro..   I suspect that strong vortex gets to about N IN or S MI, and then stalls,  and as the Miller B takes over, it starts to fill as cyclogen feedback then assists in carving the mid levels Eward under the burgeoning -NAO.  This should provide with a duration event regardless of P-type. 

 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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it's such a bizarre set-up...it's not worth worrying about at all. 

 

It has a lot fo similarities to Dec '92...that storm is like the Holy Grail around here so I never actually try to directly make an anlog like that, but the whole way it cuts off and gets compressed from the north a bit by the downstream pseudo block.

It gives NNE like no precip...like Dec '92. High is in similar spot. both the high and low aren't nearly as strong though as '92.

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