Arnold214 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I think they're going to bust pretty hard...surface temps are in the mid to upper 30s, much warmer than 850s along the southern Maine coastline right now. 0z GFS has 2-3 frames of .1" QPF, but that's light stuff falling during the day in late February with mild surface temperatures. The 0z NAM looked a lot better for Maine, but the profile is still pretty mild until tomorrow morning, which means some QPF will be wasted, and snow won't stick easily to a wet ground. The area of 8-10" seems overdone. I would have gone a general 1-3" with 2-4" in the foothills, maybe 3-6" if you lean towards wetter guidance like the NAM. There's just not that much liquid left once the mid-levels cool as the coastal cranks, and surface temperatures are mild along the coastline. i had it raining or a mix or rain or snow in portland most of the night and little or snow accums. When the big omegas kick in the sfc temps will not be in the mid 30s. They will dynamically cool to around 32 which in reflected in the grids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Well I'm not exactly bullish south of NH (not North Haven) anyway, but if the lift progs are correct the snowfall rates will overcome boundary layer issues. If it snows hard enough it will accumulate. And I do think we get there, but as you say it may only end up being a few inches on the immediate coast because of waste QPF prior to the more intense rates. Yeah rates almost always trump temps. This would be one of those really fun wildcard surprise snows if people hadn't gotten primed for something bigger. The lift prog graphics were cool. And it seems to have been a consistent feature for several model runs in a row, especially the GFS. I hope it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 . And Pete Bruchard tweeted this lol. Classic, classic Pete right here: Haters, do u holler @ the clouds and swing @ the wind? The weather is what it is. #alwayschanging #andiloveit i don't like pete, his style def. annoys me in many ways also i don't think he is the cream of the crop but he gets paid the big bucks for a reason.....anyhow euro weenie maps show no real accums for sne overnite except a spot 1-2 inches in a few weenie hills in orh county then it starts going to town for a 7-8hr period over portland maine and surrounding areas of SE nh and mid coast maine. looks like 3-6 per euro for portland maine and foothills and surrounding areas with it starting around 10am or so. if i was box i'd be thankful i cut back on accums and i'm not so sure there will be widespread 6+ in gyx areas. prolly isolated if rates impress which they look like they will. temps have crept back up along the cp of ne mass about a degree or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 what a torch in the bl tommorrow along the cp where the rates blow 33-34 throughout the 495 corridor and along the coast within 5 miles from pwm psm bvy to boston 36 or so in middle of nite with ne winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 i think gyx updated this map to trim back along immediate coast http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gyx/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnow.php tuff forecast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 what a torch in the bl tommorrow along the cp where the rates blow 33-34 throughout the 495 corridor and along the coast within 5 miles from pwm psm bvy to boston 36 or so in middle of nite with ne winds Well PWM and PSM are east or east southeast right now. That map you posted is also the one from the evening update (9 PM or so). We're still messing with the next snowfall map, but it indeed is a tough forecast. Not exactly my forecast period, but I'm playing backseat driver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 With 2.0" of snow yesterday, February 2013 has risen to the 19th snowiest month on record and 6th snowiest February in Worcester. Should break the top 15 by the end of today... maybe higher on Weds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Should break the top 15 by the end of today... maybe higher on Weds... Poor SW CT. Disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 The correct table. February 2013 is the 18th snowiest month and 6th snowiest February on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I think they're going to bust pretty hard...surface temps are in the mid to upper 30s, much warmer than 850s along the southern Maine coastline right now. 0z GFS has 2-3 frames of .1" QPF, but that's light stuff falling during the day in late February with mild surface temperatures. The 0z NAM looked a lot better for Maine, but the profile is still pretty mild until tomorrow morning, which means some QPF will be wasted, and snow won't stick easily to a wet ground. The area of 8-10" seems overdone. I would have gone a general 1-3" with 2-4" in the foothills, maybe 3-6" if you lean towards wetter guidance like the NAM. There's just not that much liquid left once the mid-levels cool as the coastal cranks, and surface temperatures are mild along the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 lol, Getting close to the high end foothill total already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 lol, Getting close to the high end foothill total alreadyI may triple his 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I have tripled his 2-4" fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I may triple his 2-4" What a bad call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Whdh just dropped totals and wbz just increased them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 What a bad call When I know people have worked hard on a forecast and somebody who is envious calls out mets...it upsets me. GYX is probably better than many NE WFOs now including BOX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 When I know people have worked hard on a forecast and somebody who is envious calls out mets...it upsets me. GYX is probably better than many NE WFOs now including BOX. That was uncalled for, Chris and Mike and the others do a great job at the WFO here, Especially on this one, It was no slam dunk, And to tell them they would bust when the trough had not even been established was wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 i wonder how close n bristol county and w plym country are to flipping it is dumping rain i would assume there now....just dumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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