Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I don't think he GFS scares many. lol true dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHIPPENSHILL Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Light snow/sleet 32.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 ryan you are a mod, unpin this thread and pin the obs thread so folks get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 lol true dat Well there is low level convergence in Ctrl mass so there may be an enhancement there...but I dunno looks suspicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 There is 850 and 700 convergence too. Maybe sneaky for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 why? I don't want to change then rechange the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Last post until tomorrow since I am 5 posted. Will be interesting to see 0z runs tonight. Hope it is enjoyable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 There is 850 and 700 convergence too. Maybe sneaky for someone. 21 z rap is insane. approaching 1 inch qpf by late morning with much to come. what a headache. dynamics will decide, but where this is snow this could be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 21 z rap is insane. approaching 1 inch qpf by late morning with much to come. what a headache. dynamics will decide, but where this is snow this could be something. High bust potential! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 High bust potential! the rap shows the dry slot discussed by box but it never gets into e ma. wow if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I don't want to change then rechange the forecast.I remember in Jan 1987 Craig Allen on Wcbs 880 at 608 am saying 1-3 then at 908 saying the weather maps had completely changed 8-12, that would be nice, go Rap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 21 z rap is insane. approaching 1 inch qpf by late morning with much to come. what a headache. dynamics will decide, but where this is snow this could be something. 0z runs are going to be fun I think. RAP has had a reasonable year, waiting for Joe to post the HRRR which shows no snow accumulations from now until 2016. Part obs, but 35.8 and sleet here. EDIT: just want to say models have been pretty consistently underestimating the intensity of the back edge of these "bands" on the back side of lows/troughs. ALL models swing it down into the eastern MA area later. Providing we don't get Charlie browned I think even Boston gets whacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I remember in Jan 1987 Craig Allen on Wcbs 880 at 608 am saying 1-3 then at 908 saying the weather maps had completely changed 8-12, that would be nice, go RapWhat has the rap and rpm been showing? I haven't been following that close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 What has the rap and rpm been showing? I haven't been following that close From the Obs thread... RAP seems to have a good handle on the sleet line the past few runs and it looks like its right at the H85 freezing level. It lifts it all the way into extreme southern NH tonight... Then tomorrow morning collapses back to the Pike but sort of holds there for a while thoughout the morning... Definitely hammers NE MA and actually out along RT 2 and into southern VT/NH/ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 9am p-type tomorrow on RAP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 From the Obs thread... RAP seems to have a good handle on the sleet line the past few runs and it looks like its right at the H85 freezing level. It lifts it all the way into extreme southern NH tonight... Then tomorrow morning collapses back to the Pike but sort of holds there for a while thoughout the morning... Definitely hammers NE MA and actually out along RT 2 and into southern VT/NH/ME. Prob end up south of that . Your GFS gives me 4-8 tomorrow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 ULL snow can sometimes surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 ULL snow can sometimes surpriseGotta get it south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Def solid bust potential tomorrow...esp for E MA. I'm hoping we get a nice 6 hour period here of mod to occasional heavy snow, but very fickle. At least we have some synoptic moisture around still and aren't depending on something as fine as a pure norlun setup. Sometimes these cna produce larger areas of good snow. Not all inverted troughs are narrow bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Prob end up south of that . Your GFS gives me 4-8 tomorrow lol Congrats and welcome back dude! Always-half-full should be your handle. Also remember that GFS snow comes after the end of the RAP model... its more like tomorrow from 10-4, not the 7-10am time frame the RAP goes out to at this point. So it does keep collapsing south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Gotta get it south of usoverhead can work, see Wills post, closer to the Pike you are the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Def solid bust potential tomorrow...esp for E MA. I'm hoping we get a nice 6 hour period here of mod to occasional heavy snow, but very fickle. At least we have some synoptic moisture around still and aren't depending on something as fine as a pure norlun setup. Sometimes these cna produce larger areas of good snow. Not all inverted troughs are narrow bands. Beats talking about temp departures. Plenty to watch this week and luckily or unfortunately, depending on how you look at it we've had Forrest Gump running the models every 6 hours. We never know what we're going to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 15z sref plumes mean 10.96" here with tight clustering between 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 15z sref plumes mean 10.96" here with tight clustering between 8-12"yep open the garage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Def solid bust potential tomorrow...esp for E MA. I'm hoping we get a nice 6 hour period here of mod to occasional heavy snow, but very fickle. At least we have some synoptic moisture around still and aren't depending on something as fine as a pure norlun setup. Sometimes these cna produce larger areas of good snow. Not all inverted troughs are narrow bands.Wish you could elaborate on more areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Congrats and welcome back dude! Always-half-full should be your handle. Also remember that GFS snow comes after the end of the RAP model... its more like tomorrow from 10-4, not the 7-10am time frame the RAP goes out to at this point. So it does keep collapsing south. Lol never really left. Just some garbage yesterday that bothered me. Hopefully tomorrow over performs cuz the bomb next weekend has disappeared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Wish you could elaborate on more areas. I'm not very optimistic for your area...maybe a couple inches tomorrow...but maybe you get lucky and this ends up further SW and you get 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 21z RPM had 4-6 from ORH to about OWD up to BOS and northeastward. 2-4" for Sturbridge to N RI. Not much SW of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 21z RPM had 4-6 from ORH to about OWD up to BOS and northeastward. 2-4" for Sturbridge to N RI. Not much SW of that. Do you think SE MA picks up some snow tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Do you think SE MA picks ip some snow tomorrow? A lot of guidance has like 2-4 there tomorrow...tough call. Could see nothing and mostly BL problems or it could rip for a few hours. Very difficult forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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