Feb 24th threat part deux

[weatherMA]

That fact channel 7 went with 10-16" at noon is sickening. Even if all guidance showed that its still 2.5 days away...irresponsible IMO. Way too much hype the last few days.

[PWMan]

So run to the bathroom, do something around the house/office and then come back and look. I just don't see the need for MBY BS and 10 posts complaining about peoples interpretations or lack thereof when they can solve the problem by themselves if they wait for 15min.

All in good fun. In my opinion it's part of the charm of these threads, as long as it doesn't get out of hand. My sense is that most of the mets realize that they're dealing with generally good-natured weenies, and don't take it personally.

 

Anyway, so much for 12z locking things in. Sounds like there are still a lot of cooks in the kitchen.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

I can't help but think this afternoon's data is just a hiccup.

This things has looked like a nice snowstorm to me since Saturday Evening 2-16-2013 when someone here first mentioned it as a long range threat. Every time since then that i've checked the model outputs it looks good to me (in S. NH). Now, after 5 straight days of remarkably consistant solutions with broad model agreement everyone flips out with a set of less than impressive runs.

Well the idea is generally that as we get closer to the event the models should be getting closer to the most likely solution, so when you get crappy 12z runs another day closer people are less than excited.

[SnowMan]

That fact channel 7 went with 10-16" at noon is sickening. Even if all guidance showed that its still 2.5 days away...irresponsible IMO. Way too much hype the last few days.

Doesn't  seem too excessive...most guidance has been showing that for the area they indicated.

[Damage In Tolland]

That fact channel 7 went with 10-16" at noon is sickening. Even if all guidance showed that its still 2.5 days away...irresponsible IMO. Way too much hype the last few days.

[ORH_wxman]

 

I can't help but think this afternoon's data is just a hiccup.

This things has looked like a nice snowstorm to me since Saturday Evening 2-16-2013 when someone here first mentioned it as a long range threat.  Every time since then that i've checked the model outputs it looks good to me (in S. NH).  Now, after 5 straight days of remarkably consistant solutions with broad model agreement everyone flips out with a set of less than impressive runs.

 

If you don't get too worked up whether its 12" or 6"...then the signal for snow in the interior north of th epike has been pretty steady. The magnitude of it and the southeast extent of the snow is what has been flipping around on the models. The more dynamic solutions paste a chunk of the region with 18" of snow and significant accumulations even to the Cape...whereas the weaker solutions have been more like a 4-8/5-9" type snowfall favoring the interior north of the pike and hills.

Figuring out the details is obviously very important for some locations, a bit less important for others.

[CoastalWx]

The euro has a real good CCB look with falling temps everywhere Sunday. Man, just a little tweak here and there and it's like 2/3rds of the 12z NAM.

[moneypitmike]

So run to the bathroom, do something around the house/office and then come back and look. I just don't see the need for MBY BS and 10 posts complaining about peoples interpretations or lack thereof when they can solve the problem by themselves if they wait for 15min.

 

You're cranky. 

 

The fact of the matter is that it's funny to read the various, 1-3 word posts that are diametrically opposed, and subsequently reversed and all being presented within seconds/minutes of each other.  Once that initial dust settles, we get the more considered interpretation.  Today's experience with the early reactions was just a little more lively than most.

[CoastalWx]

So bridge jumpers and high-fivers....expect more wiggles and wobbles of mid level features. Do not think this outcome is final by any means.

[CoastalWx]

FYI, how's the TSSN and TSFZRA doing down south? Jesus.

[weathafella]

A good run. Produces a near term snowstorm and an extended literally 100 hours of snow.

[Damage In Tolland]

So bridge jumpers and high-fivers....expect more wiggles and wobbles of mid level features. Do not think this outcome is final by any means.

What about weenie crossers and slappers?

[ORH_wxman]

 

So bridge jumpers and high-fivers....expect more wiggles and wobbles of mid level features. Do not think this outcome is final by any means.

 

I'm pretty optimistic with the track of H5...lets just hope the vortmax trends stronger as it goes to our south...the difference between a more mundane solution and something wild like the NAM.

[Tropopause_Fold]

So bridge jumpers and high-fivers....expect more wiggles and wobbles of mid level features. Do not think this outcome is final by any means.

if it just had a little more ooomph it would be a really solid storm. 

[dryslot]

So bridge jumpers and high-fivers....expect more wiggles and wobbles of mid level features. Do not think this outcome is final by any means.

 

[CoastalWx]

  

I'm pretty optimistic with the track of H5...lets just hope the vortmax trends stronger as it goes to our south...the difference between a more mundane solution and something wild like the NAM.

 

Sunday looks good to me if it can hold onto that look and throw back moisture, but your elevation should definitely make you feel comfy.

[CoastalWx]

if it just had a little more ooomph it would be a really solid storm. 

 

I'll give it a chance it can still come in better.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

So bridge jumpers and high-fivers....expect more wiggles and wobbles of mid level features. Do not think this outcome is final by any means.

 

With several more runs of the model ensembles before flakes actually start flying there seems to still be a large window for E or W movement not to mention a late bomber.

[ORH_wxman]

 

Sunday looks good to me if it can hold onto that look and throw back moisture, but your elevation should definitely make you feel comfy.

 

Yeah obviously elevation will really help out if the precip isn't as heavy. The Euro still slow-burns our way to 10-12" here with prob a period of mod to heavy snowfall Sunday morning. But we def want to see the more potent solutions for the coastal folk...even verbatim though, the Euro is still a decent event for BOS...just not a really exciting one.

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwiw, the GFS ensemble mean appears to still be at least a moderate impact event

 

[Ginx snewx]

A good run. Produces a near term snowstorm and an extended literally 100 hours of snow.

Yea IDK what is going on in here, the blizzard had made people nutsos, now 6-12 events are pedestrian.

[ORH_wxman]

 

Fwiw, the GFS ensemble mean appears to still be at least a moderate impact event

 

 

The OP GFS was pretty good too.

[SouthCoastMA]

Fwiw, the GFS ensemble mean appears to still be at least a moderate impact event

Notice how the more wound up solutions are colder

[Sugarloaf1989]

FYI, how's the TSSN and TSFZRA doing down south? Jesus.

 

 

I would have liked to have seen this on TWC, but they keep going live to Cantore and Seidel where the snow is instead.

[Mr Torchey]

How large an area gets 6-12 inches of snow Sunday per euro?

[Typhoon Tip]

  

The OP GFS was pretty good too.

 

OMG I forgot to look at it - hahaha.   Oh man, too caught up in the 27th epic -   By the way, P009 ensemble member has a 30 to 40 hour blizzard.   

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yea IDK what is going on in here, the blizzard had made people nutsos, now 6-12 events are pedestrian.

I would be quite happy with a 6-12" event. Still think that is the case here. And pasty, too

[CoastalWx]

SREFs look good again..maybe a tick cooler.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, 12z oper. GFS's a step more, where the 06z was less... Interesting how it has those QPF nodes that are like 3 X's the surrounding output - huh, owing to convective signaling perhaps.  

[CoastalWx]

SREFs bring the low just about over or a few miles east of the BM.